 |
Kathmandu Thursday December 13, 2001 Marga 28, 2058.
|
SAARC for
regional peace
By Bishnu Hari Nepal
Immediately after the
military take over, Gen Musharraf was in great trouble. Self-understood, anything could
happen to dictatorial Pakistan. The Common Wealth had expelled this country from its
membership. India, the strongest SAARC member, together with the rest of the international
community, was amongst the vehement critics of the expulsion of the elected government of
Pakistan. Hence, she never appreciated the idea of a red carpet for Gen. Musharraf at the
SAARC Headquarters. As a result, despite Nepal’s full preparations, the Eleventh
Summit in Kathmandu in Nov 1999, had to be postponed indefinitely.
Contrary to the strong
opposition from the democratic world, Gen. Musharraf was successful to prolong his
military power in the name of mitigating corruption and safeguarding the national interest
of Pakistan. Capacity building and his experience of tactics, virtually helped his regime
achieve recognition from world powers, including the People’s Republic of China
(PRC). India, due to her strained relations with Pakistan, during this period, tried her
best to defend her national interest very carefully. For both India and Pakistan, the
Kargil shock of the immediate past and its aftermath have remained as deep wounds for
ever.
In diplomacy, as foreseen,
nothing is permanent. Once the strongest opponent India had a red carpet for Gen Musharraf
in New Delhi, to hold the historic Agra Summit, between PM Vajpayee and Gen Musharraf. For
maintaining protocol prior to his India visit, Gen Musharraf got an opportunity to get
himself promoted from CEO to President of Pakistan. Despite the sincere preparations and
attempts at negotiation up to the last minute of the Summit, Agra left both the leaders in
despair. Even a simple note of the visit or MoU could not be signed. For diplomatic
circles it was crystal clear how tense the situation was.
In other words, the dark
clouds of war over beautiful Kashmir remained threatening still. Last November, Vajpayee
flatly rejected to meet President Musharraf in New York during the UN General Assembly.
Since then, only Kathmandu has remained as a ray of hope for talks between the two SAARC
giants, during the Eleventh Summit, on 4-6 January, 2002. In this perspective, this Summit
has been perceived as the most important one in the history of SAARC, for, India and
Pakistan are expected to have separate talks during this occasion. Obviously, this talk is
also vital, being the first Summit after Agra and after the rejection of the proposed
meeting at New York. In the eyes of Political Scientists, without regional peace and
security; so to say, in the present scenario, without improved Indo-Pak relations, SAARC
attaches no special significance .This can be learnt from the sixteen year old history of
SAARC.
It is because, at a juncture
where the two key members of a relatively small regional organisation like SAARC are
always at loggerheads, the question arises, after all, what is the function of SAARC with
respect to maintaining peace and security in the region in a real sense? Since SAARC does
not allow bilateral matters to be raised within its constitutional framework, still, the
query arises as to how the leaders utilise this occasion to carry on bilateral matters
with a better perspective and in a friendlier environment, outside the official SAARC
agenda?
In this regard, the story of
two generals, one of them the President of Pakistan and his then counterpart Indian war
veteran sitting together in person at a regional function in Colombo, immediately after
the Kargil war, had international significance and got wide range of coverage in the print
media. Flying back to Pakistan Gen Musharraf achieved power through a military coup,
without bloodshed. That time, it was never possible bilaterally, for the two generals, to
meet together and sit together without regional arrangements.
The theme here is to analyse
the role played by SAARC, direct or indirect, given the psycho-analytical aspect of the
decision making processes of the regional nuclear powers. It is crystal clear that this
state of mind of the decision makers as a most important component of the process, having
influence on creating and maintaining a regional peace and a balance of power system.
Any student of diplomacy is
aware of the fact that post-colonial South Asia has always remained unstable and insecure.
The Sino-Indian war of 1962 was between the two largest populations of the world. Both the
People’s Republic of China and the Republic of India became nuclear powers in 1964
and 1974 respectively. The very year, when Bangladesh was born, in 1971, China entered the
UN and attained the prestigious position of Permanent Member of the Security Council.
These developments were aiding South Asia maintain a regional balance of power of course,
without any integrated regional diplomatic arrangement.
In the mid-seventies, for
instance, India seemed more engaged in her internal politics, even imposing emergency in
that country. But, despite her unrest at home, India was able to merge Sikkim into itself
in 1975. Understanding such regional scenario, the late King Birendra brought two
important proposals to the world on Feb 25,1975 during his Coronation, he proposed that
Nepal be declared a Zone of Peace, which received support from 116 countries of the world,
except friendly India. Frankly, the Nepalese pro-multiparty leaders might be regretting
internally today why they did not give emphasis to this noble notion, during the post-1990
period. If they had done so, perhaps the plight of the country, due to the People’s
War, would not be like it is.
Secondly the late King
Birendra in 1976, for the first time among South Asian leaders, called for regional
cooperation arrangements in South Asia, during the South Asian Consultative Committee
Meeting in Nepal. In fact, it took nine years to give official shape to this farsighted
notion, and that also, at the active initiative of the then Bangladeshi President who
announced SAARC with its seven members in Dhaka, on Dec 8, 1985.
Its headquarters being
located in Kathmandu exemplifies Nepal’s contribution and active role to establish
this regional mechanism for regional peace and cooperation. This also gives encouragement
to the idea that even smaller countries deserve a say within SAARC and can play a crucial
role for regional peacemaking and peacekeeping. Pragmatically, it deserves more urgency,
when two most important members out of seven are, twenty-four-hours close to a stage of
war. If we flash back to their peace policies in the region, India has outlined her policy
not to be the first country to use nuclear weapons. Similarly, Pakistan has publicly
stated that it would not hesitate to defend its people with nuclear weapons, if necessary.
In such a situation, it is
difficult to omit the bitter fact that they have fought four wars during the post-1947
period. Among them, the 1971 war was costliest for Pakistan, loosing East Pakistan. On the
other hand, it was the greatest achievement for late Indira Gandhi in her political life,
being able to create Bangladesh. Thus, the signing of a Security Pact by India with the
then USSR, the same year in 1971, was also a clear counter balance for regional security,
with special reference to the entry of China into the Security Council. The Security Pact
with the USSR also benefited India during the crucial phase ahead, when the US openly
offered the late Zia-ul-Huq a four billion US dollar package in the name of the Afghan
cause in the early 80’s.
These strategic factors aided
the regional need assessments in South Asia and facilitated the establishment of SAARC.
Particularly, such a diplomatic environment helped follow the Line of Control, sketched
out by the Shimla Agreement, between India and Pakistan, bilaterally, in 1972. All the
time, Kashmir dominated Indo-Pak relations, as the core point. In the post-1971 period,
more than two and a half decades until Kargil, ‘no major warfare’ took place
between these countries. This can be considered as the positive side of the SAARC
diplomatic environment, and international scenario, resulting in a comparatively better
state of tranquillity and diminished post-war hazards in the entire region.
Today, experts and
authorities are talking about the agenda of the Eleventh Summit like a poverty alleviation
package, combating terrorism, child trafficking and women’s rights. One should not
forget that there were talked about since the inception of SAARC. SAFTA, the SAARC Open
University and other socio-economic and ethno-cultural relations also are not new themes.
Whatsoever the agenda in different fields on grounds of conflict resolution procedures and
strategic capability building, India stands as the epicentre of the SAARC map.
Take the case of the Second
Pokharan Nuclear Test conducted by India and its immediate test- response from Pakistan
under Nawaz Sharif. It sharply picturises the sensitivity and danger of the situation, not
only bilaterally, but also regionally. Equally important, one should not forget the fact
that nuclear giant China is a next door neighbour of SAARC. Such threats and counter
threats, due to the nuclear race in the region, are carried out in the name of
self-defence, connoting Art 51 of the UN Charter.
Not signing of CTBT by the
USA, China, India and Pakistan and total negation of the 1972 ABM Treaty by President
Bush, both have a direct impact on the SAARC region. This is very crucial for the Indo-Pak
border, especially in the post-Afghan War period ahead. Therefore, the Kathmandu Summit
coming almost three years late, is a success to some extent, but SAARC members,
particularly India and Pakistan, should not forget that SAARC had already passed the
anti-drug and anti-terrorist conventions in 1987 and 1988 respectively. SAFTA bears
significance only when the members possess homogeneity instead of stratified approaches.
History is witnessed that due to clashes of opinions between these two influential
members, SAARC has not been able even to define terrorism properly.
To conclude, political
scientists can simply wait for a better outcome of the Summit with special reference to
the SAARC agenda in general and the Indo-Pak dialogue in particular.
Other Stories
|
