Least developed countries after Doha

By Ratnakar Adhikari

Whilst the 1980s were dubbed the "lost-decade" for developing countries in general, the 1990s have become the decade of increasing marginalisation, inequality, poverty and social exclusion for least-developed countries (LDCs) in particular. The decade of 2000s may well become a decade of rhetoric and inaction, if the present trend is not reversed. Forty-nine LDCs of the world, which are home to 10.7 percent of the global population have 0.5 percent share in global GNP. Further, despite resounding rhetoric, their share in global trade is rapidly falling and it stands at 0.4 percent at present. These figures are scandalous to say the least. The efforts made so far to integrate them into the multilateral trading system have largely failed.

One of the attempts in this regard was the United Nations Third Conference on LDCs held in Brussels in May 2001. This Conference too, like most other international events, could not provide much needed relief to the LDCs in terms of better integrating themselves into the global economy. Most of the commitments made during the Conference were at best ‘non-biding’ in nature.

Despite meager achievements made during the Brussels Conference, LDCs were of the view that whatever precious little has been achieved during the Conference should be included in the Doha Ministerial Conference (November 2001) in order to ensure that they are made binding. In fact one of the objectives of Zanzibar Meeting of the LDC Trade Ministers (July 2001) was to achieve this objective.

The Zanzibar Meeting did come out with concrete proposals not only on Brussels issues but also on many other fundamental issues, including but not limited to, the development agenda. The core issues raised by the meeting included, inter alia, market access to LDC exports and full and faithful implementation of existing provisions with special reference to the Uruguay Round Agreements on agriculture, trade in services, subsidies, technical barriers to trade, trade-related investment measures, textiles, and intellectual property rights.

However, the momentum gained during the Zanzibar Meeting could not continue in Doha, due to several reasons. Firstly, developed countries thought that there were other pressing needs during the Doha Ministerial Conference than listening to the pleas of the LDCs. Secondly, the issues of LDCs got diluted because of the fight between developed and developing countries on implementation issues versus a new round (which also implied possibility of inclusion of new issues). Thirdly, LDCs, as a group, despite being generally cohesive, could not create required dent at the Conference. Finally, part of the blame also goes to the leader of the LDC camp, who mixed up LDC concerns with a heterogeneous group of ACP (Asia, Pacific and Caribbean) countries.

Despite these shortcomings, the following sentence contained in para 42 of the Ministerial Declaration could be considered the single major achievement for LDCs at Doha: "We commit ourselves to the objective of duty-free, quota-free market access for products originating from LDCs. In this regard, we welcome the significant market access improvements by the WTO Members in advance of the Third UN Conference on LDCs (LDC-III), in Brussels, May 2001. We further commit ourselves to consider additional measures for progressive improvements in market access for LDCs."

Contrasting this with the formulation of Brussels Plan of Action, it becomes evident that Doha offers a much better formulation, even though in reality developed countries might not do anything in this regard. Further having realised the attitude of both developed Member Countries as well as WTO to merely provide lip service, LDC ministers insisted on a time bound work programme for the Sub-Committee for Least Developed Countries to design a work programme concerning trade related elements of Brussels Declaration and Plan of Action and to report on the agreed work programme to the General Council at its first meeting in 2002.

Similarly, the following sentence contained in the para 43 of the declaration relates to Integrated Framework: "We request the Director-General, following coordination with heads of the other agencies, to provide an interim report to the General Council in December 2002 and a full report to the Fifth Session of the Ministerial Conference on all issues affecting LDCs." This statement could go a long way in providing a concrete shape to the so-called Integrated Framework for Trade Related Technical Assistance – the programme aimed at remedying the supply side constraints faced by LDCs.

There is a sporadic mention of LDCs in several places in the Doha Ministerial Declaration and the two other documents, namely, Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) and Public Health and Implementation Related Concerns attached to the same. They relate to, inter alia, marginalisation, accession, services negotiations, industrial tariff negotiations, investment, competition policy, trade facilitation, environment, debt and finance, technical cooperation and capacity building, and special and differential treatment.

In some respect the Doha Ministerial Conference can be considered an attempt to overcome semantic barriers. On the positive side, the implementation related concerns and TRIPS and Public health issues, which were adopted as the trade-offs to make the developing countries agree to a new round are likely to prove beneficial for the LDCs as well. However, a number of proposals made by the LDCs during the Zanzibar Meeting were unheard of during the Doha Ministerial. For example, they were resolutely opposed to the launching of a new round, but Doha did launch a new round. Similarly, the market access text does not cover most of the decisions made during the Zanzibar Meeting. The declaration did not even move an inch forward on the accession issue, which is being considered a major stumbling bloc in the process of LDCs’ integration into the global economy.

Nonetheless, on the whole, the Doha Declaration should be considered the second best for the LDCs, given their limited political capacity to influence the Conference outcome. Since the first best was not possible during the Conference, they had to settle for the second best, which they did. Something is still better than nothing.

Finally, what does Doha mean to a country like Nepal, an LDC aspiring to become the member of the WTO? The answer is, "virtually nothing" because the accession process still continues to be a torturous and acrimonious power-based game where countries don’t get what they deserve, but what they negotiate. Nepalese officials who were waiting the outcome at Doha to move forward on the accession trail will have a bitter pill to swallow.

(The author is currently based at Bern, Switzerland)

Talking about palmistry

By Pragya Karki

One of my friends catwalked inside the classroom and announced that she has something special to share with us. In no time, all the girls gathered around her and she started with her so-called special news. It was about her visit to a palmist. There was a tinge of happiness in her voice as she narrated her visit. The palmist had told her that she has a grand future ahead in store. According to him, she would live a pretty long life and on top of that a merry one. She would be visiting different countries and get chance to meet the bigwigs and renowned peoples of this living planet. At last, with a perfect curve on her face and shyly she added that her going-to-be better-half would love her more than anything else (sounds wonderful).

Not surprisingly, when the college was over, few curious girls went to visit that palmist in order to know beforehand about their hidden future. As for me, I strongly believe that future is always vague. No one can forecast future by looking at the lines on our palms. And, talking about longevity, we all know nothing is more certain than death and nothing more uncertain than its hour. The person whom we meet today may be nowhere the very next hour (bitter truth). I have even heard few older generations saying that one should not display their palms to the palmists because they have a special skill to change our lines !? If it is so, then, why don’t they change their own lines and live a luxurious life, rather than sit by the side of the road under the scorching sun?

The next day interestingly, everyone who visited that palmist was singing his glory. I discovered one common statement told to every girl – their going-to-be hubby will love them truly, madly and deeply. Clever man, he certainly knows what feminine gender wishes to hear. No doubt, happy home is the greatest gift a woman can have. Likewise, few years back a lady fortune-teller had once told my friend that she would be going abroad for her further studies. But, sad to say, my dear friend failed to get visa. As a result, she is continuing her studies in her own motherland. Well, the bottom line is, if one wishes to be a palmist, I have a suggestion (entirely based on my personal experience and observation). Always remember, suggestion is often more effective than persuasion. Mind you, I am not talking about astrologers whose interpretations are based on scientific calculations of different aspects of planetary constellations.

I am sharing my idea about a so-called palmist/fortune-teller. To be a so-called palmist one needs to have common sense and must be a good orator. First, detect what your client wishes to hear and then deliver a rhetorical speech which will soothe his/her ears. If you can make your clients happy, no doubt, they will also make you happy by rewarding you with handsome amount of money. On the other hand, if one finds my suggestion useless and ludicrous then all I can say is that, "Palmistry is nothing more than a palm’s mystery."

Disarmament, development and human rights

By Sanjay Prakash

There is no doubt that the emergency is costly politics. Every Maoist’s death is more than likely to leave lasting impact on his or her immediate family. If the emergency has proved one thing, it is the manner with which the Maoists movement is widespread at the grassroots. The Maoists leadership appears to think that this cadre is expendable enough to be snuffed en masse at the hands of the Army. It is this politics also that threatens Nepali society. What is even more threatening is the fact that, as yet the anti-insurgency campaign appears thoroughly lacking in any political move at the grassroots to win over the Maoists. The Army can contain and defeat the Maoists military designs. But it is the political establishment that must win over the masses.

The political sector is already divided. Despite the appearance at the congress meet Sunday of a united party backing for Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, calls for his replacement have already emerged from the Girija camp. Deuba on the other hand has not allowed the emergency to prevent him from appointing his supporters in key government institutions threatening Girija and allowing for the continued appearance of the distribution of spoils in lieu of loyalty. The Left on the other hand has already announced its intentions not to support the emergency when it comes up for the parliamentary approval "within three months" of the declaration of the emergency. His Majesty King Gyanendra Bir Bikram Shah Dev in an interview to the Nepal News expressed that the Maoists must give up arms and join the national mainstream. "The objective of the army is not meant to kill but to disarm the Maoists who must lay down their arms and join the mainstream of the national life". The action should be brief, purposeful and complete. As a King, I do not want my subjects to fight each other". His Majesty further noted. "The army is not on the offensive but on the defensive, they have been told to hold on to their positions". In the case of cooperation from the neighbouring countries HM the King said, "the government has received international support for the emergency declaration and the army action. Friends have given their support and understand our compulsions. I call this practical friendship. In this way, our friendship is much closer". Nepal is receiving international military support, he confirmed. "But they must not give me more than I can utilize and sustain," he said. "India has been very cooperative. They understand it is not in their interest to have a destabilised Nepal".

The overriding objective of the development efforts in Nepal is poverty alleviation. Despite some achievements over the past decade much remains to be done in order to achieve the targets of poverty alleviation. The country is committed to reduce poverty by focusing on and prioritising all policies and programmes on poverty alleviation. To address this problem, HMG/N is linking various policy measures explicitly with poverty reduction efforts through the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) in Nepal. The Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) provides a general framework for poverty reduction strategy within which all stakeholders will act. The Ninth Plan (1997-2002) adopted poverty alleviation as its long-term objective and has targeted reduction in the percentage of population living below poverty line to 32 percent
by the end of the Plan period and to 10 percent by 2017 A D. Lately, the donors have shown their interest to see such general framework within which they could fit in their development and implementation.

When we look at the poverty in South Asia, about 43 percent people are below the poverty line. In 1987 the percentage was 45. Though in terms of number the percentage has decreased there is no such radical change in the number of the poor in terms of the social securities and facilities. It is not because there is no consciousness about poverty reduction and due to that poverty has not been reduced. In each country they are adopting their own programmes to alleviate the poverty. But it is also true that programmes so far implemented have not been so fruitful and effective. The experiences of some countries have shown that poverty reduction cannot be achieved only by increasing the productivity.

The world experiences have shown that the new policies adopted after the liberalization have accounted for the increase in poverty as regards labour-based population. Hence, it has been essential for the government of the least developed countries like Nepal to restructure, re-manage and refocus the social and economic development strategies. There is a need to adjust the increase in productivity, expansion of the gainful employment opportunities and broad-based social safety nets. When we talks about gainful employment, both sides of the coin viz, self-employment and wage employment should deserve due considerations. To change self-employment to the gainful employment various programmes need to be implemented like: skill development training; access to be provided to rural poor; income generating activities; women gender based programmes; oppressed and the downtrodden targeted programmes.

On the contrary, with regards wage employment, there is a need to change the structure of the wages. After refining the law and practice by making the economic activities as the means the wage employment must be considered. The State should focus on increasing the role and share of the wage employment. The distribution system should be based on equality and the social security. Hence, for the challenges Nepal is facing in the areas of long-term social economic development and human development the emphasis should be on poverty, employment, wage structure, and social security.

Laws alone cannot guarantee human rights. Adequate institutions and enforcement mechanisms are needed to support the legal framework. A viable economic environment is equally essential. The Constitution of Nepal promulgated in 1990 guarantees "basic human rights to every citizen of Nepal".