 |
Kathmandu Friday December 28, 2001 Paush 13, 2058.
|
Defuse tensions
Former US ambassador to India Daniel Patrick
Moyenihan once described the country of his assignment as a dangerous place. He may have
been more prophetic than he knew. The two nuclear powers in the subcontinent now edging
towards war is the kind of worst case scenario that defence strategists and contingency
planners putatively thrive on. Moyenihan found India and the subcontinent dangerous
because of the nuclear potential there plus the intractable problems that countries in the
region share and the undying hostilities dividing India and Pakistan, and minus the fail
safe mechanisms to prevent nuclear triggers from getting pulled through lapses of any
kind. The long simmering quarrel between the two countries over Kashmir broke out into the
open again when suspected terrorists tried to storm the Indian parliament building earlier
this month. The air soon grew thick with accusations and counter accusations and the
Indians stepped up the pressure with the recall of their high commissioner, severing of
other contacts and now the mobilisation of forces including nuclear weapons-capable
missiles close to the border. The Indians put the blame on Pakistan proxying through
Kashmiri militants who operate from its soil. Pakistan’s defences are also up
although it must be acknowledged that they have taken some steps towards assuaging Indian
ire
albeit under American prompting, and unlike in past Indo-Pak confrontations they have not
gone all out with the war of words. The Pakistanis have however not failed to counter that
the whole affair was engineered by the dirty tricks department of India’s own
intelligence service.
The last time the two sides came to blows, in
Kargil, the Americans had to do some arm-twisting to get then Pakistani prime minister
Nawaz Sharif to pull back from the brink of all out war. That may have cost the man his
job. The Americans were of course cued by their newfound common interests with India, the
regional power, in a grand encirclement design against China, which they see as a
potential rival for global influence. Uncle Sam may now have to render similar service to
avert another war in our neighbourhood, and on one which has the distinct possibility of
going nuclear. It is clear that words of caution from other powers including China are not
going to be enough to stop India from taking its fight against terrorism to what it
considers its logical conclusion. The Indians have not been totally uninfluenced by the
way the Americans have taken their own war against terrorism to Osama bin Laden in
Afghanistan. That’s for the immediate future. But to avert the possibility of war
between India and Pakistan in the long haul, the US and others who often take it upon
themselves to set the moral tone in international affairs, should get to the root of the
problem. And the name of that problem is of course Kashmir. Now that we can envisage that
disputed territory spawning a nuclear conflict in our midst, it is an issue that can no
longer be left to fester. The big boys of world politics should individually and
collectively talk the two sides into resolving the problem once and for all, and use other
methods of suasion if needed. In the process they should not flinch from calling a spade a
spade, instead of cuddling up to any one side in pursuit of their own narrow interests.
But for now we will have to settle for some more arm twisting by the world’s only
remaining superpower to prevent Moyenihan’s fears from materializing too soon. |
