Turmoil in Parliament

The other day Parliament witnessed a "wrestling match" between the opposition parties and the ruling Nepali Congress. A member of the main opposition party dragged back the Minister for Culture, Tourism and Civil Aviation while he was proceeding towards the rostrum to defend the Prime Minister over the Lauda Air deal. The exchange of blows and punches on the floor shows "hooliganism" has invaded the Parliament. This is also a manifestation of the darker psyche of immature and rowdy lawmakers. It is indeed a disheartening and shameful incident, and the type of message it sends to the general public is certainly not rosy. Instead of practicing tolerance and democratic norms, some lawmakers resorted to nasty means to settle their scores. War inside Parliament is not uncommon. Time and again, throwing bricks and bats and unruly behaviour of legislators have been reported.

Omkar Shrestha, the newly-appointed Minister for Culture, Tourism and Civil Aviation, and Rajendra Pandey, a parliamentarian of CPN-UML were reportedly caught in a brawl during the ongoing session of Parliament. Both sides levelled many charges against each other. The cause of the clash stems from the Lauda Air scam, that has invariably dominated and obstructed the normal proceedings of the Parliament since the beginning of this winter session. As things stand now, parliamentarians do not seem to be in a mood to reconcile, nor are they concerned over the eroding parliamentary practices. The major question is not who the culprit is, but how these unpleasant practices can be controlled, and how the controversial Lauda Air deal will get an outlet.

The opposition parties, except Nepal Sadbhawana Party, have been raising the Lauda issue persistently and tenaciously. It is to be hoped that the opposition will pursue the matter vigorously, will get to the root of the matter and will treat the outcome fittingly. Against the backdrop of the scandal, the opposition has also demanded the resignation of the Prime Minister on moral ground. Asking for the Koirala’s resignation is unconstitutional, but he can be constitutionally removed through appropriate channels. The endless bickering within the ruling party, rampant corruption, deteriorating law and order, staggering price hikes, and the ordeal of leading a normal life, and above all, the government’s poor performance have only served to tarniss the image of the ruling Nepali Congress. The recent development and the unnatural manner in which the government has handled the scandal have left plenty of room for suspicion. Surely, there was more to it than met the eye. Otherwise, why is the government reluctant to probe into the scam and expose the evidence? Why is it hesitant to reveal the names of those involved in this nefarious activity?

Apparently, the government is trying to hoodwink the public by appointing a new minister. Ministers come and go, but only hiring and firing them will not help quell the conflict. Omkar Shrestha, a loyal lieutenant of the Bhattarai-Deuba camp, was mysteriously given the present portfolio. What is even more mysterious is the ease with which he accepted the office. Whether it is Tarini Datt Chataut or Shrestha, the ministership is going to be a turbulent one. If the government is slow to response to renewed calls for settling the scam from all major quarters, the consequences will be very serious. The opposition is also expected to sing the chorus of criticism and mount pressure on the government continuously, till it bows down. Lastly, it is to be seen whether our leaders are only good at flexing their muscles or are equally competent at taxing their brains as well.

Paralytic attitude to economic assessment

By Dr D P Paudel

The assessment of an economy in a short-term frequency is a must for eliminating policy errors and timely corrections. Since the world economy is moving towards E/M (electronic and mobile) technology majoring in banking and commerce including others, how a country without a status of pure isolation could perceive to track in with the global movement for further integration with having a common measuring criteria. The aid economy in the global context had been widely replaced by the trade economy as early as 1970s. However, Nepal with some few exceptions has been at the bottom line status and still feels honour to offer red carpet welcome for any aid-donor. Although Nepal in the trade front has been opting its open and liberal policy since mid-1970s but the slow economic growth outpaced by higher population growth, and also non-endogenous base or higher import content in exports in the context of forthcoming WTO regime with removing quota-base system, has further raised a serious consequence of Nepal’s export in near future.

Nevertheless, Nepal has fully acquainted these days with the development that does not need even to retrieve the diskette or CD in a PC but one can easily download the necessary data/information without any time constraint through internet and website facility. Moreover, for the last many years, Nepal has been prioritized with some legal improvement for attracting the flow of foreign direct investment (FDI) following a purely theoretical perception rather than a credible pragmatic approach. In such a situation, it is already being late to improve the frequency with shorter time span and quality of the macro-economic data base in Nepal. As such, some of the macro-economic data are readily available on monthly series such as money and banking, prices, government finance, international trade, etc, but still the major national income related data are available only on annual basis. It is, therefore, the overall economic performance and its assessment is virtually impossible in a period shorter than annual time span.

Nepal has a long history of nearly four and a half decade of periodic planning and almost all economic growth assumptions and targets are set in the planning document but due to lack of seasonal or quarterly data base, the performance evaluation and needful policy change could not be adjusted in Nepal round the year. Thus, the economic growth rate together with its major components are just the ex-post outcome which never see the light of policy shift or correction in view to move and march in a desired direction. At present days world, with a few exceptions like Nepal, data on national income and its related components are readily available on quarterly basis. In most of the empirical studies economic growth is to be treaded as a scale variable.

If the scale variable is not available, the quarterly assessment and its quantitative analysis could not be done to the rest of the related sectors. Similarly, quarterly information on such variable would help to assess the economic performance and apply policy instruments as well to attain the targeted goal in making up the quarterly movement. The Q-assessment (quarterly) is becoming a very common method for overall economic performance even in most of the developing countries.

In Nepal, national accounts (income, consumption, savings, investment, etc) data are estimated solely by the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), which is under the National Planning Commission (NPC). In the past, the release of government budgetary allocation was on four-monthly basis, and therefore, Q-based estimation method of national accounts was not compatible with the data recording system. It is, however, in the recent past the release of allocated budget has been changed on monthly basis, and also the accounting and data collection procedure can easily be changed on quarterly basis so far the existing network would be sufficient on district level. Going through the supply side sub-sectors, the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) is just the value-addition in agriculture, and non-agriculture sector for the referred period. No doubt the agriculture, sector which is highly dependent on monsoon or weather condition and vaguely less controllable by human efforts but bears a significant weight (40 percent) on overall GDP seems a sensibly difficult task for estimation. Moreover, if it is to be estimated on quarterly basis, the growth patterns are to be distributed from plantation to harvesting period on the basis of their value addition. For non-agriculture sector, the proximity base is sufficient enough if public and private sector is efficient and punctual for the timely feed back of related data/information. For this, public sector would have to lead and facilitate its own agencies together with private business and enterprises. For the private sector, public sector has to convince them about the role and importance of their source data and to take into confidence for the timely supply.

Nevertheless, forecasting and estimation of the GDP growth in Nepal is based solely on supply side (production) and any effort has not been tried from the demand side (consumption, investment, etc) reflecting a partial estimation method. With the lack of quarterly data, it is virtually impossible to quantify the quarterly value addition in the overall domestic/national output and also to generate the quarterly weight for the economy. In such a situation, the national accounts data could not be more transparent and accountable. Moreover, due to lack of such data base, any more commendable policies and programs may not be successfully implemented in the absence of performance evaluation and assessment, and likely correction. And the impact analysis and needful adjustment always suffer from policy and program errors. In other words, all economic activities could not be kept within the ambit of policy efforts to achieve the desired growth path. As such, not only the agriculture GDP but also most of the non-agriculture GDP also suffer from the uncertainty and influence by the chance-base.

On the backdrop of this, it is not only desirable but, necessary to develop the quarterly database for major macro-economic indicators. Truly speaking, one can easily ask what are the real impediments that the concerned agencies (CBS, NPC) are not in position to actively think on this matter. The preparation of the planning document having a series of forecasting is only a departing point while the implementation with timely assessment and evaluation of the prescribed policy is to be taken as a final destination. Given the paradigm that the NPC as always is led by a team of caliboronomists, there still exists the lacking of a public debate or discussion regarding the role and use of macro-economic data base. Furthermore, there are some public and even private institutions involved in the economic research but they seem never to seek to discuss and try to forecast such data as such institutions in most of the countries are at least involved in doing the job to establish and enhance their credibility. In today’s world, it is further a responsibility of the public sector to communicate with the people for discussing on the economic growth path and its assumptions to be made. Live debate on this issue is perhaps the hot-line solution as perceived by this writer.

Is there an outlet?

By Rajeeb Tamrakar

I wish I should have, too, joined the Maoist cadre," said a friend of mine after reading the Maoist demands published in a local vernacular weekly.

Fortunately, I, too, read those demands. Initially, I was quite impressed by their demand, but after much pondering, I found them to be merely a mirage.

What I found was that the Maoist demands were too easy to understand. One does not need any mental exercise. They demanded that the foreign domination of industrial, business and finance sectors be stopped.

This means, the Maoists intend to throw multi-nationals, banks and other establishments out of the country. This is not a bad demand to bleed the nation economically. Jobs do not sprout on their own. Opportunities need not be created through economic inputs and growth. Their demands are like sprouts which are on the verge of extinction.

I am not mistaken that the Maoist leaders belong to the "sorcerer brotherhood". Like magicians, they can create jobs out of nowhere. They introduce ideas of providing unemployment allowances in a country that finds hard to survive on the foreign subsistance.

It seems they have already started implementing their demands to wind up I/NGOs by attacking foreign nationals. Recently Chinese warned that they would abandon their projects, if adequate security measures are not provided immediately.The next on the line to attack are the foreign donor agencies.

Distributing land to land-less and homeless is a wonderful idea but the question is how? Will it be like the recent forest encroachment by the ex-Kamaiyas? Or, like the promises made by the then ‘underground democratic leaders’ during the Panchayat raj after snatching the bread of the poor.

They have already put up their idea of eliminating racial discrimination. But who actually divided the people on the basis of hills and Terai in the recent outburst of chaos? Are they not the Maoists? Or is it, too, a Maoist demand?

All their demands appear rationale until they see the reality. Not that they know the poor. They work together to blast educational institutions to make the poor poorer. They assemble bombs that kill innocent children, women and the poor.

Time is ripe for all of us to come together. For what ? To destroy ourselves before the Maoists destroy us? Will this end the crisis and boost our morale?

Ruminations on King’s China visit

By M R Josse

Their Majesties the King and Queen are to depart from Kathmandu for Beijing on Monday, February 26, 2001 on a state visit to China at the invitation of Chinese President Jiang Zemin.

THREE EACH: The forthcoming mission will be King Birendra’s third state visit to China, the two similar preceding occasions being that in December 1973 and August 1993, respectively.

Interestingly, the King has, thus far, paid an equal number of state visits to India: three (they took place in October 1973, May 1993, and January 1999).

The King’s forthcoming trip will also mark his tenth overall excursion to Nepal’s neighbour to her north, the very first one being as far back as 1966 while he was Crown Prince.

While that hard fact of contemporary Nepalese history is loaded with considerable politico-diplomatic significance, what is equally striking is that if the King paid one state visit each to India and China during the Panchayat period, in about half that time span since the political change of 1990, he has — or will shortly have — paid two state visits to each neighbour.

On that basis it would seem to logically follow that the King’s value to India and China has increased — rather than decreased — dramatically since his position altered from one who ruled absolutely to one who reigns constitutionally!

On the eve of the royal visit to China, it might be useful to also recall some other facts pertaining to Nepal-China relations and the Nepalese monarchy.

At the outset, one recalls the yeoman contribution of King Mahendra who, despite searing external pressure, was not deflected from the goal of seizing the strategic opportunity to establish a direct, modern surface connection between Nepal and China in the early 1960s.

Indeed, those who take the existence of the Kathmandu-Kodari Highway for granted today should mull over what grave external challenges to Nepal’s sovereignty might have been mounted in the interregnum if that strategic link to China was non-existent.

Another important chapter in the history of modern Sino-Nepalese relations that is worthy of recollection today is that dealing with the establishment of Nepal-China "air bridge" over the high Himalaya, dramatised so well during King Birendra’s ground-breaking, photogenic trip to Tibet in 1976.

To recall, the Himalaya had till then been considered an insurmountable physical barrier between Nepal and China, an obstacle that monsoon clouds could not and still cannot overcome.

INCREASE IN INTEREST: Notably, if only coincidentally, King Birendra’s impending visit to China comes in the
wake of the official visit beginning today of Chinese Defence Minister, Chi Haotian — the very first by a Chinese defence minister.

If the latter fact is striking in itself, what makes it even more so is that there has been a conspicuous increase in strategic dialogue/interaction between the two friendly neighbours since May 1998 when South Asia went overtly nuclear, following the Pokhran-II and Chagai nuclear explosions.

As much is surely underlined by the fact that the Chi visit has been preceded by that of a PLA delegation led by Major General Luo Bin (September 1998) and that headed by Chief of Army Staff, General Fy Quanyou (April 2000).

(Incidentally, the Fu mission to Nepal took place against the backdrop of the Clinton sojourn to India — and the clandestine flight of the 17th Karmapa from Lhasa to Dharmashala via Nepal).

In any case, what needs to be noted by all at this juncture is that the Chinese have made it quite plain that China, too, has deep security concerns in Nepal. That, of course, mostly, but not exclusively, has to do with the Tibetan issue.

Be that as it may, what is equally notable is that in recent years two Chiefs of Army Staff of the Royal Nepal Army, including the present incumbent, have paid official visits to China at the invitation of their Chinese counterparts.

King Birendra’s forthcoming visit to China — also his first after South Asia’s nuclearisation — will thus provide him the opportunity, among others, to hear directly from the Chinese leadership their assessment of strategic issues having a bearing on South/Central Asia, including, very possibly, the dispute between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, dubbed by former US President Bill Clinton as "the most dangerous place on earth."

No doubt there will be an exchange of views on the latest developments on the world stage and their implications for China, including those over Tibet, of the recent changing of the guards at the White House in Washington.

Conceivably, it will also provide the King with the opportunity to update himself on the Chinese perspective on Sino-Indian normalisation and allied regional issues.

That will possibly include the Chinese leaders’ unvarnished views on and/or interpretations of the provocative test-firing of the Agni-II long-range nuclear capable ballistic missile, with a range of 2,500 km range, while senior Chinese leader Li Peng was on an official visit to India last month.

ENQUIRY: For their part, Chinese leaders may very possibly desire a briefing from the King on what must seem to be a never-ending climate of political instability/insurgency in Nepal — despite the fact that Beijing, unlike New Delhi, does not normally take an intrusive interest in Nepal’s domestic affairs, as India does. Though the King will be accompanied by the foreign minister and Shital Niwas mandarins, who may be involved in finalising some bilateral deals including on the construction of a new Nepal-China highway, clearly its most significant segment will be the talks at the summit level in Beijing.

Such consultations should be specially valuable to Nepal when the tension-ridden region is passing through a very uncertain time.