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Kathmandu Tuesday January 16, 2001 Magh 03, 2057.
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Proceed with caution
An ordinance on the formation of an armed police force is to be promulgated
soon as it has now been given the green signal by the Royal Palace. Announcing this at a
press conference the other day, Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala also said the force
would be used against the Maoist rebels, something which has never been in doubt. The
armed police force, which will initially have a strength of l5,000, is eventually to grow
to 25,000, and the personnel who comprise it will have modern weaponry. Armed with this
new force, the government may at last have an edge over the elusive but effective Maoist
guerrillas. The existing police force has not been able to contain the insurgency, first
because it is poorly armed, and also because it is too thin on the ground. As Mr Koirala
put it, the armed police force is part of a four-fold strategy that the government has
adopted. The other components of the strategy are dialogue, political consensus, and an
economic package for the Maoist-affected districts. The economic package approach could
have a gestation period that is too long. As for political consensus, it can be ruled out
for the time being as no consensus would be meaningful without the Maoists themselves
becoming a party to it through a process of dialogue. That leaves dialogue and the greater
use of armed force. What then are the prospects for the armed police force option?
Exercise of this option will lead to a dramatic escalation in the bloodshed. Already, over
the past five years of Maoist insurgency, the police have killed just over l,000 Maoists.
A sizeable number of civilians have also been killed in the crossfire. Yet the increased
cost in lives may not bring about the desired goal. The armed approach will in all
probability involve the tactic of hot pursuit and denying the Maoists their base areas.
That could only mean pouring more men and material into the conflict. The Prime Minister
has also said that if the deployment of the armed police proves inadequate the next step
will be to mobilize the army. If things do go that far, and if the army also proves
unequal to the task, then that will be the end of the game. Use of the armed police force
will also involve inordinately higher expenditures. And should the fighting escalate still
further, so will the bill. Where is the government going to find the resources without
putting the economy under a severe strain? The poor subscription to a recent issue of
government treasury bills already indicates the low confidence that the public has in the
soundness of our public finances. Before going down the path of greater armed conflict the
government should proceed with caution, and seriously think about giving dialogue a
sincere try. Past record of dialogue with the Maoists has not been a particularly good
one. The talks held have been more about more talks than about seriously getting down to
business. It should be added in fairness that the Maoists have not been particularly
enthusiastic about talks either. Both sides have made a show of willingness to talk, only
to score political points. The government should approach talks in good faith the next
time round.
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