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Kathmandu Friday June 01, 2001 Jestha 19, 2058.
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Global trade Asian import
growth strong
Post Report
KATHMANDU, May 31 - Global trade and output
growth in 2000 were the strongest in more than a decade, with all regions benefiting from
the stronger world economy, according to WTO Annual Report-2001 published recently.
According to a press release received here
today, which summarizes the findings of the report, merchandise trade expansion in real
terms in 2000 matched the best annual rates observed over the last five decades. However,
a deceleration of economic growth began in the final quarter of 2000, clouding the trade
prospects for 2001.
While all regions reported faster nominal
trade growth, exports and imports of developing countries expanded by more than 20%,
lifting their share in world merchandise trade to the highest level in the last 50 years.
Various factors contributed to this outcome, including the economic recovery in Latin
America and East Asia, the sharp rise of oil prices and stronger import demand in
developed countries, the release says.
The value of world merchandise trade rose by
12.5% in 2000 — twice the average for the last decade — to reach nearly 6.2
trillion dollars. World commercial services trade is estimated to have expanded by 5% (to
1.4 trillion dollars) in 2000, the fastest annual growth since 1997. For the second year
in a row, the value of commercial services trade expanded less rapidly than merchandise
trade, but for the 1990-2000 period its 6% annual growth matched that of merchandise
trade, says the release.
In 2001, the world economy is retreating from
the high growth path seen last year, dimming the prospects for world trade in 2001. The
volume of world merchandise trade is expected to grow by 7%, a marked reduction from the
estimated 12% in 2000, the release points.
The year 2000 witnessed not only outstandingly
high global trade and output growth of 12% and 4%, respectively, but also an exceptionally
large excess of trade growth over output growth. Prices of all internationally-traded
goods remained almost unchanged from the preceding year as sharply higher prices for fuels
were offset by declines in the prices of manufactured goods. In 2000, prices of
manufactures recorded the fifth consecutive annual decline, causing average prices to fall
to their lowest level in 10 years, the release says.
Real oil prices reached their highest level
since 1985 and the share of fuels in world merchandise trade is estimated to have
recovered to somewhat more than 10%, close to its share in 1990. The regions with a large
share of fuels in their merchandise exports (the Middle East, Africa and the transition
economies) recorded outstanding export growth — between 25 and 50% in 2000, according
to the release.
Asia’s merchandise import growth was the
strongest of all the regions (23.5%) and exceeded for the second year in a row its export
growth. North America’s merchandise import growth (18%) was second only to that of
Asia and again stronger than its export expansion (13.5%), adds the release.
The growth in the dollar value of Western
Europe’s merchandise exports and imports was by far the lowest of all regions,
largely due to the further depreciation of the euro and other European currencies
vis-à-vis the dollar. North America and Latin America recorded both double digit export
and import growth for commercial services, the release says.
Asian exports of commercial services rose by
13% boosted by the marked acceleration of services export growth by Asia’s three
leading exporters: Japan; Hong Kong and China. The near stagnation of Japan’s
services imports — which accounts for one third of the Asian regional total —
was the principal factor in the subdued expansion of Asia’s commercial services, says
the release.
Expressed in euros, Western Europe’s
commercial service trade expanded by about 14% which indicates an acceleration in both
nominal and real terms. In dollar terms, however, Western Europe’s commercial exports
and imports decreased slightly.
In the oil markets, the sharp oil price
variations which, over the last three years recorded their highest and lowest levels in 15
years, have left their mark on international trade flows. The share of fuels in world
merchandise exports fell to 6.5% in 1998, the lowest share in three decades but recovered
to 10.5% in 2000, the release points.
The swings in oil prices have had a dramatic
impact on the export earnings of oil exporters. At least 18 fuel exporters recorded total
merchandise export growth in excess of 50% and in 2000. For about 30 countries fuels
account for more than one third of their merchandise exports. While the developing
countries (and also the LDCs) are — as a group — net fuel exporters, the
majority of the developing countries are net-importers, the release states.
In the second half of the 1990s, Asia replaced
Western Europe as the largest net-importing region. This development can be attributed to
the buoyant rise of fuels imports into fast growing developing Asia. The Middle East
consolidated its position as the world’s leading fuel exporter and is likely to
strengthen it further in the future, the release concludes.
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