 |
Kathmandu Sunday May 13, 2001 Baishakh 30, 2058.
|
Economy on track to achieve 6 pc growth: CBS
By Prem Khanal
KATHMANDU, May 12 – The national economy is on target to achieve about 6
per cent growth rate in the current fiscal 2000/01, according to the latest statistics
compiled by the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS).
Though slightly less than last year’s 6.3 per cent growth rate, this
year’s growth is nevertheless being seen as a healthy growth rate and comes largely
from strong performance in the service sector. Two years ago, the growth rate was a meager
four per cent.
According to CBS’ preliminary estimates of the Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) for the current fiscal year, the economy is expected to grow at 5.8 per cent. The
current growth rate is remarkable in the sense that it is being accompanied by a historic
low inflation rate - general price rise - of just 2 per cent.
The agricultural sector, which contributes around 40 per cent to the GDP and
absorbs over 80 per cent of the national working population, is expected to grow at 4 per
cent against earlier expectations of 4.3 per cent. The slight decline is primarily due to
negative growth rate of wheat, albeit output of principal food crops surged. However, the
growth in the agriculture sector, though less-than-expected, has strongly anchored the
economy’s overall performance.
Similarly, propelled mainly by the strong performance of the industrial,
power and water, and the service sectors, the non-agricultural sector is estimated to
register a more-than-expected growth of 7.3 per cent. The preliminary growth estimate for
the sector was set at 6.9 to 7 per cent. The sector last year had grown by 7 per cent.
Following the impressive GDP growth, the per capita income of the Nepalese
people is also opined to grow significantly. The GNP per capita, in terms of domestic
currency, is expected to grow by 6.25 per cent to touch Rs 18,677. However, in dollar
terms, the GNP per capita is billed to jump only by 4.9 per cent to touch US$ 256, chiefly
due to continued depreciation of the Nepali currency against the greenback.
With the rise in income, Nepalese people are expected to save and invest
more. The gross national saving is expected to grow by 18 per cent while total investment
is estimated to swell by 13.7 per cent. Similarly, the total consumption and capital
formation is also expected to grow by 6.5 per cent and 10.4 per cent respectively.
"Given the strong performance of the economy consecutively for two
years, the government’s efforts towards poverty alleviation and employment generation
will get a major boost," says Dr Shankar Sharma, member of the National Planning
Commission.
If the estimates come true, the annual growth rate would meet the targets set
by the ninth five-year plan ending 2002, but, however, will still be short of budgetary
target of 7 per cent.
On a sectoral front, despite some recent slowdown in exports, manufacturing
sector is projected to maintain moderate growth of 6.5 per cent. Of the major contributors
of this sector, production of woolen carpets, textiles, sugar and cement are expected to
slump while that of ready-made garments, soap, beer and cigarettes are estimated to enjoy
double-digit growth.
Likewise, the growth rate for trade, restaurant and hotel is projected to
grow only by 3.32 per cent against the preliminary estimates of 5 per cent. With the
initiation of some mega hydropower projects, the energy and water sector is expected to
pose the highest growth of 19 per cent. Transport and communication is anticipated to rise
by 7 per cent.
Similarly, finance and real estate sector’s growth is expected to be
around 4.9 per cent only, chiefly because of continued excess liquidity in the banking
sector and poor performance of real estate.
One of the prominent achievements by the economy in the current fiscal year
is the healthy growth of 17.8 per cent envisaged for the social sector, which in the past
usually lagged behind. The strong performance of this sector is as a result of a
remarkable bump in the pay scale of civil servants, followed by a rise in the salaries of
private sector employees.
Other Stories
|
