Stop interference

After weeks of sustained aerial bombardment in Afghanistan, the Northern Alliance has rallied and recovered over half the country from the Taliban. Former Afghan president Burhanuddin Rabbani has returned to Kabul close on the heels of Northern Alliance forces. The Western powers led by the United States, which have in effect engineered the downfall of the Taliban in the wake of the September 11 attacks on the World Trade Centre and the Pentagon, are now trying to put together a broad-based government. This in a country that has been ravaged by continuous war ever since the massive intrusion by the Soviet Union in the late l970s to bolster a shaky leftist government. The West seeks to include in any such government representation from minority communities like the Tajiks, Uzbeks and Shiite Muslims as well as from the dominant Pashtun community which has provided the support base for the Taliban. The Western powers, which moved against the Taliban for harbouring Osama bin Laden, the Saudi dissident they hold responsible for the World Trade Centre and Pentagon outrages, have not been able to catch bin Laden. But they have managed to create a power vacuum in Kabul. However unpalatable the Taliban may be to others in Afghanistan and to people beyond, what with their strict interpretation of Islam and its harsh implementation, one good thing they did was give that rugged country a semblance of order and respite from the factional fighting that has torn it to shreds ever since the Soviets left in defeat.

With the Taliban now in hasty retreat and their last strongholds also under sustained assault from the air and on the ground, the country is again in danger of relapsing into civil war, with the various factions proxying for and being sustained by outside forces. That indeed is the double trouble that now stares Afghanistan in the face. Afghanistan should be left to the Afghans to sort out in their own way, with the outside world playing no more than a facilitating role through the United Nations. UN Secretary General Kofi Annan said as much recently and his words should weigh with all who are genuinely for durable peace in our neighbourhood. The UN already has an initiative under way for the future of post-Taliban Afghanistan. There has been talk of convening a traditional Afghan council of all tribal and ethnic groups under the auspices of exiled ex-king Zaheer Shah. There may be various other options. But whatever option is chosen, outside powers including immediate neighbours should refrain from interference. This will no doubt be easier said than done. In the past Afghanistan has been an extension of the great game that was played out in central Asia by the big powers of the day. In fact the little strip of Afghanistan sandwiched between the former Soviet Union and Kashmir and linking up with China is said to have been deliberately designed to keep the Russian and British empires from colliding with each other in the Hindu Kush. Today neighbouring countries have their own agendas, axes to grind and proteges to promote in this badly battered, land locked country. And the United States, the world’s lone superpower, has its hidden agenda of using Afghanistan as a possible exit route for the fossil fuel reserves that are believed to exist in central Asia. All the more reason then for keeping any outside role in Afghanistan strictly under United Nations supervision. This would also be one way of atoning for leaving the UN out of America’s war on terror.

Impact of China’s entry into WTO

By Biswo Nath Poudel

After 15 years of difficult negotiations, we finally came to this historical moment", China’s minister for foreign trade and economic cooperation Shi Guangsheng jubilantly proclaimed in Doha, Qatar after China’s induction into the World Trade Organization. Obese, soft-spoken Shi then drank a toast with the dignitaries of the WTO present in Doha, and his entourage, some of whom were even in the first round of trade talks in September, 1986 in Uruguay. Everybody else clapped happily. China’s state-run media promptly moved to hail the decision. "The World Trade Organization (WTO) finally opened its door on Saturday to China, integrating the most populous nation on the planet into the open world market and sending a positive signal to a slumping global economy on the brink of a full-blown recession", boasted Xinhua.

A lot of commentators swiftly moved to interpret the news as another victory for the current Chinese leadership, especially for president Jiang Zemin and liberal premier Zhu Rongji who took much of the flak during previous negotiations with the US. However, far from being so helpful to the current leadership, this new agreement is polymorphic in nature, and is capable of both lobotomizing and strengthening the Chinese economy and thus, politics. From steel to agriculture, from the communication sector to aviation, tariffs for high-end products are likely to be reduced in China, and the Chinese market is likely to be inundated with foreign goods. Though the overall impact of such an influx is difficult to anticipate, Chinese state-owned companies operating under a state provided protective market environment will, at least, face tough competition. And a tough question:
what to do?

Even when economists lash out at China’s staggering state-owned enterprises (SOEs) for their inefficiency and overstaffing, they know that the SOEs are the real China, and the conventional backbone of the Chinese government’s strength. To dismantle these SOEs, or to change their management style, China needs a lot of courage both in the political field, and in its economic domain. Also the fact remains that the uninterrupted near double digit average annual growth rate in China has not yet been able to transform most of these enterprises. During all these years, the state has shielded pet domestic strategic sectors from ruthless international competition even when the diversity of ownership in other business sectors increased. These same big state-owned sectors also employed most of the workers. The leadership calls it 2R (retreat and retain) enterprises reform policy. However, will these SOEs be able to retain their hold on home ground after the massive invasion of big multinational companies, now that ‘retain’ will be considerably less protected?

This is probably the reason why Chinese intellectuals were not as jubilant as the Chinese media over the new development. They also have another fear: Will China be as adept in manipulating rules and regulations in international bodies as other developed nations? China, after all, very much lacks legal experts. Law was not among university disciplines until the late 80s. In The South China Morning Post, Zuo Dapei, an economist with the China Academy of Social Sciences is quoted as saying, "WTO trade disputes arbitration mechanism is biased towards Western powers and arbitration will be unfavourable to China, undermining China’s control of its trade policies". And Long Yongtu, China’s chief negotiator for WTO entry, echoes the fear of lack of international law experts in China. He fears China’s situation will be like "a blind man riding a blind horse". However, most of the experts still think that by the time all the provisions on full trade scripted into WTO regulations are implemented in China, China will be a more competitive nation.

The current leadership in China is set to retire at the 2003 plenary session of the Communist party, and a new group of officials are set to ascend to power. Hu Jintao, current vice-president and touted to be president, probably epitomizes a new leadership: born in 1942, he was too young to see the martial exploits of Mao and Deng when they defeated the Kuomintang. The new leadership is also not blamed for the bloodshed of Tiananmen Square in 1989. Wen Jiabao is considered to be the frontrunner for replacing Zhu. These new leaders however will be strongly tested in their ability to implement the obligations arising out of the WTO agreement. But, the Chinese are still suspicious of international bodies, and officially do not recognize international courts and their jurisdiction over the Chinese nation. So, any hint of weakening nationalism and kowtowing to these international bodies is likely to enrage the sensitive Chinese populace and the restive student population as has been increasingly evident in the recent standoff with the United States. This may affect the stability of the Chinese state.

(The author is affiliated with Louisiana State University. He lived in China for almost five years and is interested in the Chinese economy and politics)

The nicest things

By Hitesh Karki

Craving so hard that you have all the nicest things in life, you leave no stones unturned while seeking for happiness. Even to the extent of seeking the help of the god almighty through arduous prayers and even bribing him with endless varieties of offerings. But then again this is the human nature - "never satisfied". You just want more, more of everything that you have.

This reminds me of the basics of the Economics. To be honest, it’s the only thing I can remember about Economics . Limited means and unlimited wants. That’s the be all and end all of your whole existence. No further explanations. Life’s nothing but confrontation of wants and needs.

We, the ordinary mortals, always think winning a million rupees lottery, a mansion somewhere in Kathmandu, "telephone number, salaries", roaming and cruising in a brand new sleek vehicle , travelling across the globe, etc as the most obvious definitions of nicest things and happiness in our lives.

Going back to economics and living in the 21st century, I feel these are basically the answers you would receive from any one you ask as to what they would consider as the nicest things in their lives.

All of this "nicest thing" business began when my wife, who happens to be a primary school teacher, was busy checking the assignments of her pupils after the dinner. "Hitesh you got to read these.." She came to me about an hour later with somewhat pleasant face carrying a stack of exercise books which she had just gone through. I decided why not take a break from watching the horrific scenes of the war on the television.

"Dear teacher, one of the nicest things that happened to me was just the other day. I was just passing across the bursar’s room where you were having a little conversation with the head-teacher. I accidentally happened to hear you and the head-teacher praising me ."

The very first one struck me. We tend to think that oodles of wealth would bring us the happiness yet the nicest moment in life can be situation just like the one mentioned above "accidentally overhearing someone say something nice about you".

Another one read... "though it might sound stupid and trivial a reason but teacher, no matter how momentarily it might be, still I consider receiving a mail , not the e-one, as one of the happiest moments in my life".

"Singing " happened to be the title of the next pupil. "Teacher I’m feeling quite ashamed as to what I am about to say. It is only on your insistence that I am writing "direct from the heart" without having any second thoughts, just like you said in the class. Every evening as I prepare to get on with my assignments the first thing I do is play a song on my stereo and sing along, reading the lyrics printed on the back of the CD without feeling stupid. Sometimes I even think that my voice is no less than the singer’s. I feel the whole of my singing session as the nicest moment in my life".

" A lazy bum that you know I am..." was the starting line of the next one. "If it were only possible then, I wish I could just pass my whole life sleeping away but I know I got to study. However teacher the nicest moment for me are those days when I happen to realize after waking up that I still have a few more minutes to sleep. The sleep at that moment in time is the most nicest moment in life." One couldn’t be more honest with his definition of the best things in life than this, I thought for a moment.

The voices of the little ones I think were the perfect definitions of the nicest things in life.

Saving grace

By Jug Suraiya

Last week we decided that finally we had to get a new fridge. Our old fridge has survived 20 years, three changes of residence and one change of city. Now it is not just on its last legs; it is on its last knees, wheezing for euthanasia.

In the days when we bought it, refrigerators came in two basic models; there was the small size, and then there was the smaller size. "We’ll take the smaller size," I told the salesman. In those days I still made such decisions.

"What colour do you want?" asked the salesman. "What colours do they come in?" I asked in turn. "White, or white," said the salesman.

"We’ll take the white," I said with masterful decisiveness, and damn the consequences. "Round or square?" asked the salesman. "You make round fridges these days?" I asked, marvelling at the ingenuity of these refrigerator-wallas. What will they think of next?

"Round ice cubes," corrected the salesman. "Do you want a free ice tray which makes round ice cubes or do you want a free ice tray which makes square ice cubes?" "Round," I replied.

"We’re out of round today; you’ll take the square," said the salesman. So we forked out one-and-a-half-month’s combined salary and had square ice cubes for 20 years, power breakdowns excepted.

A lot has changed since then, and not just the shape of ice cubes. "Of course we must go for frost-free technology," said my wife, Bunny. "Of course," I concurred, wondering how a frost-free ice cube differed from the other sort.

"But we have to make up our minds whether we want a two-door, three-door or four-door model," said Bunny. "What’s a fridge want with so many doors; doesn’t it know if it’s coming or going? Heh, heh," I snickered. Bunny gave me a look.

"You are in the process of making a mature, responsible life-choice decision here, not writing your column," she said.

"Sorry," I apologised. "The four-door BPL Sanyo seems to be the top of the range model; it costs 34,000," continued Bunny.

"Thirty-four K? I thought we were buying a fridge, not the Gangotri glacier," I protested. "The BPL Sanyo four-door is a fridge; it has PuF insulation, a vinyl-coated metal body giving years of rust-free service, and a special tropicalised compressor to suit local conditions," said Bunny.

"Bully for local conditions," I said, wanting to add that for 34,000 I’d expect the damn thing to yodel Bavarian folk songs and do the fandango every alternate Sunday. But by this time Bunny was looking for Special Offers.

Being in advertising, Bunny knows all about Special Offers which lead to Big Savings. Like those Special Offers which give you this Useful Plastic Container as an Absolutely Free Gift with every 50 gms of Nescafe, hurry till stocks last! So we hurry till stocks last, and then hurry some more till stocks last some more, and end up with three kitchen cabinets full of Newcafe plastic containers which come in very useful to contain the Maggi plastic containers which were on Special Offer the month before, which in turn contain the Milkmaid containers of the month before that, all tucked one into the other like those Russian dolls that go on into infinity.

"Think of all the big savings we’ve made," says Bunny surveying a hoard of plastic beyond American Express’ wildest dreams. There were no Special Offers on fridges. But after trucking through half-a-dozen showrooms we put down a deposit on a three-door Videocon with a new, improved special chiller section and a six-week delivery period.

"I thought we wanted a four-door BPL," I said. "We do," said Bunny. "But by exercising our consumer choice in favour of a three-door Videocon instead we’re making a saving of 16,000 bucks. Isn’t that good?" "That’s great; and on that happy note, or rather notes, let’s go home," I said. But now it turned out that Bunny wanted us to buy a 29-inch Sony colour TV set for 55,000.

"But we don't’ have 55,000 for a TV set," I pointed out. "Of course we don’t," agreed Bunny. "So what we’ll do is exercise some more consumer choice and plonk for a 28-inch Toshiba instead, which is only 29,000. Which gives us a saving of 26,000, which added to the saving we’ve already made on the Videocon fridge deal puts us 42,000 to the good."

"What’ll we do with all these savings?" I asked. "Simple," said Bunny. "We’ll want to buy a 1.5 tonne split unit Carrier room air-conditioner for 70,000-plus, but go in instead for an Amtrex window model for 27,500, ex-factory and waiting period of 10 days, which means we’ll save another 42,500 plus, to add to the 42,000 we’d stashed away earlier." She was figuring out how we could save yet another eight grand by wanting to buy a BPL microwave oven but waiting instead for an American tie-up which would give us a micro for a mere 15,000 when I hauled us both out of there.

"I don’t think we can afford any more savings," I said, before she could price the Onassis yacht but settle for the INS Vikrant in lieu, thus effecting a negative outgoing bigger than India’s nuclear budget for 2002.

At home, I wait for the Videocon to arrive. But I have seen through its disguise: It is no fridge at all but a perpetual motion machine which makes for an infinitude of savings through an eternity of spending. Alladin’s magic lamp of recyclable consumerism. Only one thing bothers me. When the genie pops out of the Videocon, will the ice cubes it comes equipped with be square ones or round?