Effect of land-use changes in Kathmandu Valley

By MADHAV NARAYAN SHRESTHA

There has been a growing need to quantify the impact of land-use changes from the standpoint of anticipating and minimizing potential environmental impact. Changes to streamflow quantity and quality that result from land-use changes need to be established. Kathmandu valley is an ancient valley with a varied history. Significance in its historical development are the rise of conurbation and the design of Pagoda style architecture and high rise temples with stepped plinth basements. After 1952, a new phase of development began with remarkable changes in social status and the migration of people to the valley. The general trends of urbanisation remained slow until the mid sixities. Only in the seventies, infrastructures like road networks and water supply systems started to develop rapidly. As a result, with its three cities -- Kathmandu, Lalitpur and Bhaktapur -- saw population rising rapidly and haphazardly. It is necessary to systematize the human settlement, implement the town planning more scientifically and carry out land use in a proper manner. There are various development plans for the valley, namely construction of an outer ring road, an urban settlement development plan and construction of link roads on the banks of major valley rivers. The configuration of the valley is more or less circular with a watershed area of 651 square kilometres. The valley is an intramontane basin and the valley floor occupies about 55 percent of the area with 35 percent foothills and the remaining 10 percent is mountainous areas.

A study using the Geographical Information System (GIS) with Remote Sensing data for the four years1978, 1984, 1990 and 1996 found different types of land use. It found that the Hydrological Soil Group (GSG) type A, which has high infiltration rate (i e sand/gravel), accounted for 46 percent of the area of the valley, and this was found mostly in the northern and western parts of the valley. HSG type B, which has moderate infiltration rate, accounts for 25 percent. Similarly, HSG type C and D, which have slow and very slow infiltration rates (ie clay) accounts for 7 percent and 22 percent respectively.

The most visible change due to land-use change is in surface waterflow. The effect of land-use change has been evaluated on the hypothesis that when the same rainfall pattern is routed through different land-use changes, the resulting difference in the stream flow will indicate the effect of the land-use change. Compared with the flow that occurred in 1978, the percentage increment in peak flow was found to be 14 percent and average percentage increment was 15 percent from land-use of 1996 due to premonsoon rainfall pattern. Similarly, the percentage increment in peak flow has been found to be 13 percent and average percentage change in streamflow 12.2 percent. Due to the post monsoon rainfall of 1978, the percentage increment in peak flow was 14 percent and average change was 13 percent. The study shows that the trend of land-use change was significant in 1990 and difference in land-use changes between 1990 and 1996 has been found to be less. Percentage changes in peak flow and average flow by superimposing the monsoon events of different years were the almost same. Thus the percentage changes in peak flow and average changes in streamflow values depends upon land-use changes irrespective of storm events and the time. The average daily monsoon flow is increased by 12 percent when there is 9 percent deforestation and 17 percent urbanisation. In some tributaries, the peak flow value is found increased by 20 percent although the monthly rainfall depth was observed decreased by 3 percent. It clearly shows the land-use change effect on stream flow production due to deforestation and urbanization, which is the most essential assessment for sustainable land-use planning. It is found that the percentage change in stream flow due to land-use change is almost constant for different land-uses irrespective of the rainfall pattern (different years) and irrespective of time of occurrence ( pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon).

Considering the new urban development plan proposed by successive governments and which consists of 27 urban settlement development plans for the 35,300 ropan area under Kathmandu Metropolis, Lalitpur sub-metropolis, Bhaktapur Municipality and Madhyapur-Thimi Municipality, and a proposed 66.15 km outer ring road (second alternative proposed by the Department of Roads, and planned to be constructed at the foothills of the valley) along with 22.25 km of radial connecting road, the daily average streamflow values are found to have increased by 16.5% during the pre-monsoon season, 8% during the monsoon and 5% during the post-monsoon seasons, when compared with streamflow values observed in 1978.

Most invisible change due to land use traced after long duration due to land-use is in groundwater storage. The deposits within the valley are predominantly lacustrine. Most of the recharge area (from which water penetrates to join groundwater storage) is on the northern portion of the valley. Most of the rechargeable areas are confined to the high flat plains and alluvial low plains because the exploitation of groundwater seems to be difficult in the surrounding high mountains. Due to gradient, the rainfall is converted quickly into streamflow that infiltrates the ground and joins the nearest tributaries.

The groundwater is being used for water supply and its contribution is around 50%. The extraction from tubewells under the Nepal Water Supply Corporation (NWSC) amounts to over 80% of the total extraction in the valley. The total pumpage rate by private as well as gas wells is smaller compared to that of NWSC wells. The groundwater levels (storage) have been in a nearly steady condition in the early 1980s, because no large well was operated at that time. Extraction of ground water by pumping has increased since 1984. The net well field in the valley has been found to be 6.16 sq.km. The study shows a 2m increment in drawdown ( lowering of groundwater table) in 1984 due to extraction of groundwater compared to that of 1978. In 1989, the drawdown increased by 4m compared to that of 1984. The ground water storage is found to be decreasing sharply since1986 and facing a continuous drop through nonstop extraction. Some recharge areas, which are in the northern part of the valley, are rapidly converting to urban areas.

The extraction of groundwater is also increasing to fulfil the demand of water. The study shows three distinct trends of drawdown: Minor decreasing trend from 1977 to 1981, an increasing trend from 1981 to 1985 and a sharp increasing trend after 1986. As the surface water available is almost constant in the valley, extraction of groundwater is the only alternative to fulfill demand due to urbanization. This may be one of major reasons for increasing drawdown. The total drawdown calculated from the water balance study of the valley is found to have increased by 2.75 m in 1984 and 7.5 m in 1989 compared to 1978. Drawdown due to groundwater extraction is found increasing by 2m in 1984 and 6m in 1989 compared to 1978. Hence drawdowns of 0.75 m in 1984 and 1.5 m 1989 can be attributed to hydrological modification due to land-use change. The effect of land-use modification is more predominant in groundwater than in surface water. This is due to the fact that the extraction of groundwater to fulfil the demand of growing urbanization is increased and the portion of water infiltrating into groundwater is reduced due to increase in imperviousness.

Information on existing land-use, its spatial distribution and its changes is essential prerequisite for planning and management. Land- use planning and land management strategies hold the key for the development of any region.

Sita becomes Sweety

By AKHIL TRIPATHI

I was waiting for my lunch to arrive and watching the crowd grow at Royal Alina’s Bakery Cafe’s Water Kingdom. Suddenly, I heard laughter on the stairs and couldn’t help directing my gaze towards it. It was a group of four young girls I could count. One of them caught my eye. I couldn’t fix her or recall her name, but for some reason, her face looked strangely familiar.

I was trying to place her when the group sat two tables away from me. She hadn’t noticed me so far.

Suddenly, I had a hunch that she could probably recognize me herself if she caught my eye. "Hello Bhai", I called a waiter trying to raise my voice. I pretended to complain about the delay in my lunch order. The ploy worked and all four heads turned and looked at me. But instead of recognising me, I found four pairs of eyes, and hers in particular, staring blankly at me. "Aaja dance party chha, jane hoina?" One from the group asked, right when I thought about approaching her. "There’s one today? Sure jane ni! Why miss such a blast?" was her reply. "But I don’t have any money", she pouted. "Sweety yar, do girls really need to bother about that?" tittered another from the group. Another peal of laughter could be heard again.

So Sweety was her name. But no. It wasn’t . Must be an alias I thought, and the real name, in some way similar to it. Suddenly it struck me like lightening! "Damn it! Of course she was Sita" the four lettered name came suddenly. Then I knew that she was the only daughter of Mr and Mrs Sherchan, neighbours of my hometown. I looked at her and remembered the Sita I had seen a year ago. The Sita who had come to the capital to study for her SLCs. What I saw now appeared to be an updated copy compared to what I had seen in the past. Kathmandu had brought about an unbelievable change in her! Gone were the strands of long, silken hair. Her hairstyle, now, a boys-cut. And gone was the Kurta-Suruwal. Instead, she wore a skimpy vest and a matching mini skirt, ideally designed it seemed to expose her finer parts.

Just about to finish my dal, bhat, tarkari, a waiter came with their orders. One of her friends lit a cigarette and shoved the packet towards her. She stole a quick glance at me and declined. This, I could see, left a puzzled expression on the face of her friend offering her the cigarette. Suddenly, they were leaving, their cold drinks half-finished. I knew where they were going as I had overheard their tête-à-tête, and I was curious.

I paid the bill and left the restaurant. I couldn’t get rid of the idea to go and see what other surprises she had in store for me. My bike roared as I kick-started it and the next moment I was heading to one of Kathmandu’s more trendy discos. I stopped only when I was in the parking lot. Leaving the gatekeeper with a grin as he checked my ticket and said: "Dai tapain eklai", I walked into the new generation’s fun park.

In no time at all, I spotted Sweety and the group (there was no doubt she loved this name, as I heard it so often). Sweety, my far away neighbours’ only daughter was ‘getting down’ in the crowded disco. Sipping a beer, crunching the freebie crisps, tapping her feet to "sexy eyes". Her dance partner too was not less interesting. And the shock on Mrs Sherchan’s face? To see him with his tight t-shirt, tattooed arms, hair in a ponytail, rings in both ears, one hand around her waist and holding a can of beer in the other, and gyrating with her daughter. I could see every guy in the hall measuring her up. And she didn’t seem to mind it at all, rather bathed in it. The transformation was now complete. The Sita I knew had become Sweety. I couldn’t believe it. But the question is would Mr and Mrs Sherchan recognise their daughter?

An error over L’ affaire terror !

By JOSEPH VERGHESE 

US Secretary of State Colin Powell’s no "enfante terrible" by any stretch of imagination. None, to my knowledge has ever hinted, he could be. So what’s this about his having said that, and about his not having said this ? That’s explained easily. Powell, the wildest pun yet heard in these parts, in his honour, merely said, "Powell Power!" – said a few proprietary things, during his brief Kathmandu visit, about American’s concern over the Maoist uprising in Nepal. Media reports here have been at best sketchy, especially about the exact nature of his own, as well as American perceptions about what should the US do, if anything at all, by way of helping Nepal meet the threat.

The lead story in this paper on January 20 had this to say: "Though army officials declined to reveal details about their meeting with Powell, an army source told The Kathmandu Post that US "assistance on military hardware" did figure during the discussions.On the previous week, the visitor from America was reported by the same newspaper as having had stated, he was aware of the needs of the Nepalese military in this context, and that a team from the US Embassy here would discuss the matter in the "days ahead."

The denoaument

The editorial entitled, "Powell visit", in the same Nepalese newspaper, the following day, Monday, January 21, betrayed a small measure of disenchantment about it all. It started off with this glum pronouncement: "Many are inclined to say the success of the just concluded visit to Nepal by American Secretary of State Colin Powell lay in the fact that it took place." There’s more than a broad hint in the following sentence itself, which serves as the explanation for the ill concealed grouse, about top ranking world leaders choosing to skip Nepal during their swing across this region, the most pronounced of such recent defaults being former US President Clinton’s neglect of this country. The editorial then went on to disclose an obviously disappointing finding in these words: "It has since come to light any military assistance the US provides Nepal would be non-lethal, and would be built on existing programmes involving training, military exchange and equipment." Under the circumstances, credit should go to the editorial writer of the newspaper for this gracious remark that followed preceding remark about the let down: "In a prolonged confrontation such as the country is now apparently headed for, resources in material and know-how can help tip the balance." The "gesture" does little to hide the fact it is a vague and half hearted one, nonetheless. It couldn’t have been otherwise! The leading article deserves passing notice for another thing also. It clearly stated that Powell, while unequivocally condemning the Maoist rebellion, pointed out that the deeper causes of the occurrence should also be addressed, by ensuring "good governance, economic advancement and an end to corruption."

The times of India to the rescue

The second of three editorials in The Times of India (New Delhi edition) on January 22, bore the headline, "The Terror Error". In a nut shell it roundly condemned Powell (read the US) for the US Secretary’s visit to Nepal "and offer of military hardware to the beleagured Nepalese government to crush the Maoists —" There must be some mistake here, especially about US offer of military hardware to Nepal, unless the mistake is to be traced to the Kathmandu newspaper, which clearly stated, there was no such American offer at all ! TOI in a huff went on to point out at length, that New Delhi should take instant notice of that, as it is violative of the 1965 treaty’s relevant clauses dealing with military assistance and the like to Nepal by non-Indian sources. And this: The government of India has all but conceded Washington’s role as the arbiter of South Block’s ( India’s Central secretariat housing the Foreign Office) direction, and by implications, the future of India’s relations with its neighbours." These are harsh comments, verging on panic."TOI later on, in the same editorial, after briefly suggesting that there’s the hypothetical possibility of China also putting in its oar in the matter of giving military help to Nepal, advises New Delhi to "distinguish between terrorism and insurgency." The burden of that angle of argument is to show up the Maoists as less (by far ) of an evil than the Taliban, besides paying a handsome tribute to the Nepalese rebels, into the bargain! Strange indeed are the ways...of friends and neighbours!