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| Kathmandu, Thursday April 18, 2002 Baishakh 05, 2059. |
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Nepal, India and the United States
By PRAKASH A RAJ
The end of the Cold War and the emergence of
the United States as the only superpower in the early nineties caused some adjustments in
relations between states in South Asia. The Soviet Union, which was an ally of India,
disintegrated. Although Russia remained a friend of India, it was no longer the superpower
having the same military might and influence during the Cold War. By the mid-nineties, a
new regime of Taliban was to capture power in Afghanistan. It consisted largely of Islamic
fundamentalist groups, which were trained in Pakistan. The geo-political and strategic
situation for India was becoming adverse. There were increasing cross-border raids in
Kashmir valley, which had Muslim majority and Pakistan believed it should have gotten it.
Some of those involved were veterans of anti-Soviet war in Afghanistan who wanted to
liberate another Islamic land from the infidels. India still had unresolved boundary
problem with China, a nuclear power by that time. A feeling of insecurity could have been
contributing factors that led to detonation of nuclear device in Rajasthan desert by India
in 1998. Soon, Pakistan was to explode its own nuclear bomb. Pakistan, an ally of the
United States since the Cold War and a "front line" state for struggle against
the Soviets in Afghanistan in the eighties felt its "strategic depth" had
increased as a friendly regime was installed in Kabul. An Indian Airlines aircraft flying
from Kathmandu to Delhi was hijacked and ended up landing in Kandahar ruled by Taliban, an
ally of the Pakistanis.
The Indian government released three
prisoners in exchange of aircraft’s passengers. These were Masood Azhar, Sheikh Omar
and Mushtaq Zargar. The fact that the hijackers had boarded the plane in Kathmandu
suggesting the presence of Kashmiri militants, Islamic fundamentalists and possibly Al
Qaida in Kathmandu, was the first major episode in the triangular relationship between
Nepal, India and the United States in the twenty-first century. Masood Azhar is supposed
to have declared jehad against India and America after his release in exchange with
hostages (Hindustan Times, 7/10/2001). He was the principal accused in bombing of Indian
Parliament in December 2001. Sheikh Omar is charged in the murder of American journalist
working for Wall Street Journal. A story published in India Today (7/1/2002) calls
Revolutionary Internationalist Movement (RIM) based in London an "umbrella
organization of Maoists and narcoterrorists the world over" whose membership includes
Nepal’s Maoists. However, no evidence has so far been presented to link the Maoists
in Nepal with narcotics trade.
A series of dramatic changes in alignments
were to be seen as a result of terrorist attack in New York and Washington on September
11, 2001. This was alleged to be the work of Al Qaida under the leadership of Saudi born
Osama bin Laden. The US joined the war against terrorism. Pakistan was to become a
"front line state" again as it decided to side with the anti-terrorist coalition
led by the US. The United States declared war on terrorism. A few months later Taliban was
finally defeated and a new government was installed in Kabul.
The United States and India were getting
closer after September11. Although sanctions were imposed on both India and Pakistan after
nuclear tests in 1998, commonalities of interests had already brought India and the US
closer even during the presidency of Clinton. Both being the largest democracies in the
world, progress of information technology in India, and increasing clout of persons of
Indian descent residing in the US played important parts in bringing the two countries
closer, but it was primarily the changed strategic equations emerging after the end of the
Cold War and above all, the common threat of terrorism after September 11 which was the
most important factor. According to news report published in India Today ( 21/1/2002),
Indian intelligence agencies said "there were repeated "inputs" on plans to
hijack an aircraft from Kathmandu’s Tribhuwan International Airport and crash it into
a prominent symbol of Indian democracy or power". According to The Indian Express
(11/1/2002), Indian Home Minister Advani is said to have handed over intelligence reports
to the American government during his visit to the US that suggested Pakistan’s
funding of Maoists in Nepal.
Arms for the Royal Nepal Army: Nepal needs
modern weapons to fight the Maoist insurgency after declaration of state of emergency in
November 2001. The Indo-Nepal Treaty of Peace and Friendship signed in 1950 states
"The government of Nepal shall be free to import, from or through the territory of
India, arms ammunition or warlike material and equipment necessary for the security of
Nepal". However, it states that the procedure required for this purpose would be
agreed later. When asked if there would be any problems from the Indian side if Nepal were
to receive arms from the US, an Indian Foreign Ministry official is reported to have said
" We are cognizant of Nepal’s security needs and we are prepared to help Nepal
in whatever way possible" (The Himalayan Times, 28/3/02).
Khum Bahadur Khadka, Nepalese Home Minister,
had asked India and the US for night vision helicopter, military training and other
weapons after declaration of emergency. (Samacharpatra, 11/12/01) India donated two
helicopters for use against the insurgents, previously used by the Indian Army and built
in India which arrived in Kathmandu in December (The Kathmandu Post, 12/12/01).
Unconfirmed reports stated large quantities of arms supplied by India to Royal Nepal Army
entered the country for use against the Maoists (Samacharpatra, 11/12/01).
According to news report published in The
Hindu (30/3/02), US Assessment Team from Hawaii-based Pacific Command visited the country
to consider demand for transport equipment but would not post military advisors on Nepali
soil. It said India and the US were consulting each other in increasing Nepal’s
capacity to combat terrorists but their co-operation had not reached the level of
co-ordination. It reported that a large consignment of transport helicopters from Ukraine
was received by Nepal.
A night vision helicopter used by the
Nepalese Army repelled attacks by Maoists in Narayan Bazar in Dailekh in the hills of mid
western Nepal. (The Kathmandu Post, 29/3/2002)
The American Ambassador to Nepal has equated
the Maoists with Al Qaida, Shining Path in Peru or Khmer Rouge in Cambodia. He made the
statement after visiting Achham in early March where the Maoists killed a large number of
security personnel in carnage.
Colin Powell visited Nepal in January, the
first ever visit by an American Secretary of State to Nepal indicating the importance
attached by the US to Nepal. He had supported strong military action against the Maoists.
The US was reported to be ready to provide military hardware to Nepal after
"assessing the need", according to acting Foreign Secretary of Nepal who
returned from a trip to the United States. (The Kathmandu Post, 11/4/ 2002). It is
expected that American assistance will be "non-lethal" in nature.
According to news report published in
Deshantar (14/4/02), India is reported to have sent a team recently to study Maoist
insurgency affected region and prepared a list of area of co-operation. It has now
returned to India.
Current scenario: An Indian woman was
arrested in April 2002 in the Indian part of Kashmir was carrying $100,000 to be delivered
to a top separatist leader there. She was bringing the money from Kathmandu. (The
Himalayan Times, 25/3/02). This could illustrate how Nepal’s territory is being used
for anti-Indian activities. The Indian Government is reported to be preparing to take
action against the Maoists in four states bordering Nepal - UP, Bihar, Uttaranchal and
West Bengal (Spacetime, 8/4/02).
It thus appears probable that assistance from both the US and
India would be made available to Nepalese Army in its flight against the Maoist
insurgency. As both India and the US are fighting terrorism and have come closer
especially after September 11, there are ample grounds for such an outcome. On the other
hand, the nature of arms to be delivered and their transit through Indian Territory would
be a matter of concern to the Indians. China and the US found themselves on the same side
during the fight against terrorism, especially in Afghanistan. This was partly due to
separatist movement and insurgency in the Chinese province of Sinkiang having a Muslim
majority. However, American policy to "contain" China may re-emerge after the
end of anti-Al Qaida operation in Afghanistan. Whether Nepal will also be involved and how
would its two neighbours react in such a scenario would depend upon the outcome of
military action against the Maoists. India may not be too happy if sophisticated arms are
provided to Nepal by the Americans to fight insurgency, especially if it finds what it
calls ISI activities in Nepal and along Indo-Nepal border posing a problem for its
security. In the worst case scenario, if communal violence is not controlled in Gujrat and
spreads to other states, especially western UP it could create serious problems for the
Indian government. Of all the districts in the Terai, the insurgency is most pronounced in
four districts in Nepal- Kanchanpur, Kailali, Bardia and Banke between Mahakali in the
west to Babai in the east. This corresponds to areas extending north of Baharaich up to
Banbasa in UP. The Indian Territory linking the far western Terai districts with the
Indian capital, Delhi is very important strategically. It is very close to Delhi
geographically, closer than the insurgency affected areas in the northeast, Jharkhand or
Andhra Pradesh. It also has a large population of Muslims - almost a third of the total,
consisting of such districts of Rohilkhand as Moradabad, Bareilly and Rampur. It is in the
interest of all parties concerned that the insurgency be brought to an end as soon as
possible either by dialogue or as a military solution. Such an outcome is in the interest
of India and the US, besides Nepal.
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