Economic cost of political problems

By DR RAGHAB D PANT

The Central Bureau of Statistics has recently indicated that it has over estimated the gross domestic product of Nepal at constant price for the fiscal year 2001/2002 by Rs 4.6 billion, or by 1.6 percent. Statistically speaking, it was a near perfect estimation, but even the marginal changes in the absolute amount of gross domestic has changed the original estimate of the overall growth rate of the gross domestic product at constant price from barely positive- 0.8 percent- to negative. It was then a big news as it was, to the best of my knowledge, the first time after 1982/83 that the growth rate of the gross domestic product in absolute terms was negative.

The matter looks more serious than the marginal changes in the growth rate of the economy indicates. A detail study of the press release of the Central Bureau of Statistics revealed that the marginal growth in the agricultural sector and the completion of the Kali Gandaki project were the only two positive developments in the country in the last fiscal year. Otherwise, the economy was going downhill- and it is still continuing at a more rapid pace- so rapidly that the available information was sufficient to indicate that the country’s economy was in grave peril. At the sectoral level, in particular, the income originating in the manufacturing - and in tourism sector as well - has declined by as much as 10 percent. I have not noticed such a drastic decline in income at the sectoral level in other countries even at the height of Second World War. As a result, the contribution of agriculture in the gross domestic has increased steadily from 37.8 percent in 1999/2000 to 39.1 percent in 2001/2002- a clear sign that the economy is being more dependent on agriculture, that itself with low productivity, follows the pattern of monsoon. The four sectors, namely, transport and communications, tourism, manufacturing and the community and social services that together contributed 60 percent of gross domestic product of the nonagricultural sector and were the hope for the future growth to alleviate high and rising poverty are in grave peril too. As a result, the export of goods and services has declined by as much as 25 percent. The household sector, that has to accommodate every year almost 300,000 new additions to the labor force, is the worst sufferer. This was visible in the changed pattern of domestic consumption and savings. It is difficult to believe but the information released by the Central Bureau of Statistics shows that the domestic savings in the last fiscal year has declined by as much as 16 percent with remittances from relatives working abroad financing a significant part of consumption and household investment in housing.

Things may get even worse in the current fiscal year. The target of the government as indicated in the budget speech for the current fiscal year to achieve an annual growth rate of 4.3 percent- 3.4 percent in agriculture and 4.9 percent in the nonagricultural sector- is impossible to achieve, given the current political situation and the economic activities of the past five months. The available information from the Nepal Rastra Bank on the current macro economic situation shows that the development expenditure has declined at an annual rate of more than 40 percent in the first quarter of the current fiscal year; and the export trade has continued to decline at an annual rate of 25 percent, largely due to decline in export to India, with commensurate effect on country’s balance of payments and international reserve position which has shown a decline measured in dollar terms. Against this background, Nepal will be lucky if the growth rate in gross domestic product remained positive, however marginal the amount may be, in the current fiscal year. The income in per capita terms will definitely decline, and it will be difficult for the poverty rate to maintain at 1984/ 85 level- 42 percent of the total population.

How long will we allow the current economic situation to continue? Notwithstanding the state of the economy, not a single word has been uttered by the politicians, both now enjoying the power and the opposition, on the economy or the policy measures. It appears that none of the politicians has read the press release of the Central Bureau of Statistics or has understood the implications of several news and editorials published in the local papers on the subject. The politicians are still busy in their own petty political fighting with no consensus in sight. Many businessmen have changed their hats recently and joined the political game. But the basic question is: How long can the politicians ignore the economy? If the economic performance in the current fiscal year would not get worse from the last year level, the gross domestic product would still be Rs 44 billion lower, which is equivalent to 15 percent of gross domestic product, from the level that could have attained by the economy had it followed the growth pattern of the fiscal year 2000/01. This amount (44 billion), or about Rs 2000 in per capita terms, is the economic cost of the recent political problems. It is composed of the loss in both agricultural (13.0 billion) and nonagricultural sector (Rs 31 billion). Given the continuing economic slowdown, the business of calculating the loss at the sectoral level is more complicated. But the straight forward technique that we have followed shows that the largest loss is to be borne by three sectors, namely, manufacturing (Rs 8.6 billion), tourism (Rs 8.2 billion) and Community and Social Services (10.6 billion).

There is news in the media that the Tenth Plan will be released sometime this week. We do hope that the government has taken into account the implications of the economic cost of political problems in developing its policy and programmes.

Camel country

By GHANASHYAM OJHA

The upsurge in Constitutional upheaval after the royal takeover has blown both hot and cold heat across the country. Leaders of different political parties are beating their drums to prevent themselves from falling further. Belatedly though, the leaders are now publicly admitting their crimes committed in the past twelve years. "We all are responsible for this deterioration," they sing together.

But it must be appreciated that the leaders have, though belatedly, realised the worth of Nepali people. They have also realised their mistakes, though they have not categorically mentioned them. However, the Nepalese people are scared that one day their leaders would come up categorising their crimes in their attempt to persuade the people. Please, it is enough.

However, the dejected people, on the other hand, are again being fooled. They are being subjected to observe the making of a camel. A camel-country is being prepared. But the individual parts of this camel-country are much worse than the entire camel.

The so-called responsible parts of the camel-country speak publicly on their own. Most of them, on their initial trial, have already proved that they are the best liars of the liars. They went wild to such an extent that the makers themselves had to scold them.

One of the parts has recently cheated the gentle business people in and out of the country. Many businessmen are still waiting with their thick pockets to purchase the country’s only international civil aviation. A chartered accountant-turned-part of-the camel-country had used his mathematics observing the not-so-good condition of the business people and set the price of the aviation. But now he is refusing to sell it.

A goatee of the camel-country claims that it is its most beautiful part. The goatee, before it joined the camel-country cabinet, impressed at least a group of people. But it looked no longer beautiful after it became part of the camel-country. It even went on to love what it always used to hate.

A stethoscope on the other is looking quite awkward. Stethoscope is fixed on to the abdomen of the camel-country. But it has not yet well adjusted itself despite its efforts to impress some junkies. It also claims itself of being the most significant part. But the more it speaks, the more degrading it appears because it is always used to looking attractive and valuable in hospitals.

The head of the camel-country is very short. It always keeps on moving, come what may, especially during discussion. The head, naturally the most significant part containing the brain of the camel-country on the other, can easily be twisted in all directions. Therefore, it always walks under the shade of a powerful man who can give safety to it.

The tail of the camel-country is much more restless. It always tries to get touched by women, especially white-clothed ones, while walking in the street. I don’t know the story behind its love for white-clothed women, but people say it was directly brought into the camel-country from a hospital, where it was trying to make love with a nurse.

Maker, beware. Otherwise, camel-country might look more horrible than the camel itself .

Wars : Preventive and pre-emptive

By M R JOSSE

One discernible result of the 9/11 terror attacks on America last year is a new focus on, and emphatic advocacy of, the doctrine of "pre-emptive war". Lately, that has sometimes come in tandem with the even newer concept of "preventive war".

FROM 9/11 TO IRAQ

American President George W Bush, speaking to military cadets at the Military Academy at Westpoint in upstate New York earlier this year, declared that "the United States has long maintained the option to pre-emptive actions to counter a sufficient threat to our national security."

He went on to add: "To forestall or prevent such hostile acts by our adversaries, the United States will, if necessary, act pre-emptively. The United States will not use force in all cases to pre-empt emerging military threats, nor should nations use pre-emption as a pretext for aggression. Yet in an age where the enemies of civilisation openly and actively seek the world’s most destructive technologies the US cannot remain idle while dangers gather."

In an official paper on American security policy there is reference to how America should act against possible future threats, without the explicit use of the term pre-emption. The formulation this time is that "America will act against such emerging threats before they are fully formed."

But, whatever choice of words is used, it is evident that the doctrine violates the UN Charter principle of non-intervention in the domestic affairs of nations. Nevertheless, it may be recalled that America has, even before 9/11, employed this strategy to affect regime changes through overt methods in countries such as Iran, Guatemala, Cambodia, the Congo and Chile. In the case of Grenada and Panama it acted covertly.

Since at that time there were no non-state actors that threatened America’s homeland security, the post-9/11 doctrine of pre-emptive strikes "to counter a sufficient threat to our national security" thus represents a subtle continuum
rather than an abrupt change of national security policy.

The candour with which American leaders are now articulating is certainly novel, as is the new dark and terrifying world of international terrorism the unfolding of which they believe justifies the doctrine.

For all that, while some believe that pre-emption is inherent in deterrence, others maintain that it is no different from the time-honoured doctrine of self-defence, a sovereign right whether for the United States, Nepal, or any other nation state.

The more balanced view, however, is that pre-emption is in fact about pre-emptive war, about attacking the enemy before the enemy actually mounts an attack. In the case of the United States, it has naturally acquired fresh meaning and urgency because of what is widely viewed as an impending military strike against Iraq.

For all that, it is surely significant that more recently there is now a growing reference to "preventive war", a concept that former American President Jimmy Carter, for one, roundly criticised the other day in Oslo in his acceptance speech after being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

So, what’s the difference? If the use of the term "pre-emptive war" by the US suggests an American military strike in response to an adversary about to hit out at America, Bush’s reference to his country not remaining idle while dangers accumulate indicates that what he has in mind is
actually a "preventive war".

The difference may be best understood against the backdrop of present day saber rattling over Iraq. Indeed, the much-anticipated war against Iraq may not quite justify a label of pre-emptive action in as much as it is difficult, for most, to imagine that Iraq has the capability to immediately hit out at the United States itself.

On the other hand, a "preventive war" against Iraq by America and others would fit far more comfortably with the theorizing that American policy framers have indulged in, since the envisaged action would be more clearly directed towards a change in regime in Baghdad. And that, of course, could in turn transform the social and economic architecture in the Middle East in ways that are envisaged as beneficial to the proponents of a "preventive war."

AUSTRALIAN REACTION

In it surely interesting that while the doctrine of pre-emptive or preventive wars has not been openly subscribed by any government in South Asia, it has appealed to well-known regional "hawks" who believe that if America can adopt them in this age of global terrorism, so can their own governments.

It is in Australia, however, the main target of the Bali terror bombing in October, that such doctrines have found a safe official haven, in the person of Australian Prime Minister John Howard who has forcefully defended America’s right to attack Iraq if necessary.

In his words: "This idea that his (Bush’s) critics have that he is just dying to pull the trigger is ridiculous. You’re not dealing with a Sunday school teacher in Saddam. You’re dealing with one ruthless dictator who has used poison gas against his own people and has invaded his
neighbours and runs a torturous regime."

In fact, Howard recently got so carried away that he threatened pre-emptive strikes against any country in the region that Canberra perceives as a base for an actual or potential terrorist attack against Australian interests. Not surprisingly, therefore, his statement not merely created a furore in Australia’s neighbourhood but invited condemnation, especially from Malaysia and the Philippines. For the record, Bush extended him full support.

Coming back to South Asia, as already noted, no government has formally endorsed either of the two concepts under discussion in these columns. As the Times of India, for example, noted recently, "to accept his (Howard’s) logic in South Asia would imply that, given Pakistan’s continued export of terrorism to India, New Delhi should take recourse to pre-emptive strikes against Islamabad."

In that newspaper’s view: "The exercise of such a questionable prerogative, far from countering terrorism, would only give rise to new dangers. While Bush would be averse to pre-emptive strikes in one part of the world, he endorses such exercises elsewhere."

That may, of course, be true. What is also undeniable is that it is South Asia, and Kashmir in particular, that has become, to use former US President Bill Clinton’s words, "the most dangerous place on earth." As such, a straightforward comparison between the India-Pakistan situation and that pertaining to Australia and her neighbours in Southeast Asia is not entirely valid.

Be that as it may, as the war clouds gather menacing over Iraq, students of international relations and of the Middle East might usefully mull not only over the significance of, and differences between, pre-emptive war and preventive war but what the end result of such an outcome might be for themselves.

Incidentally, that is precisely what a perceptive and provocative Indian commentator, Swaminathan S Ankelsaria Aiyar, has suggested Indians do. His own view is clear: India will gain from Saddam’s ouster, as oil prices will plummet, following the rebuilding of the Iraqi oil industry which he anticipates will come in the wake of war with Iraq.

Would Nepal, too, benefit likewise? That is a question better addressed by our economic whiz kids, not to mention the bosses at the Nepal Oil Corporation.

Cricket looking up, officials need to look ahead

SUMAN MALLA

International Cricket Council (ICC) chief executive Malcolm Speed, at the end of ICC Development Committee meeting in Lahore, Pakistan last week, had all praise of the progress of a few associate countries in Asia including Nepal in cricket. He also predicted that those countries could cause some upsets in next World Cup.

Well, Nepal would not be participating in the World Cup in South Africa but the cricket colts from the Himalayan Kingdom are surely drawing attention. The latest evidence of Nepal’s rapid progress is in display in the U-15 Asia Cup being played in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

With the Nepali teams’ phenomenal displays in ICC Under-19 World Cup in New Zealand last year and in the Asian Cricket Council (ACC) Trophy held in Singapore, there has been significant upsurge in expectation among country’s cricket loving public.

And Nepali U-15 boys, with a series of intrepid performances, have lived up to the expectation. Unbeaten record in the preliminary stage - three wins in as many matches - followed by a two-wicket win over Test playing nation Bangladesh, certainly brought in more credentials to Nepal.

CAN officials, by exposing the teams to a number matches against school sides from India, have followed the suggestion of ICC and ACC officials: "Nepal should be playing as many internationals as possible with First Class teams from neighbouring India, Bangladesh, Pakistan without waiting for ACC competitions." The results in the U-15 Asia Cup reflect the effect that such preparatory competitions have on international tournaments.

The seven-month cricket programme revealed by Cricket Association of Nepal (CAN) promises a solid base for domestic structure. Apparently, because of the greater emphasis given to well-framed junior programmes ranging from Under-13 at school-level to Under-19 at the centres in five "cricket-development" regions. This makes sense for not only would it help to promote cricket in the local sphere, it would also help spot talents readily.

And the country’s cricket officials, who remained indifferent to league cricket for so long, have also showed their commitment to put on stream the domestic programme by making announcement to run the national league cricket from next year.

Now is the time for cricket officials, who are never tired of talking about their intimate contacts with their counterparts at the neighbouring countries, should use them for the benefit of the national teams.

But the challenge is not over just as yet. Aside of framing a well-designed domestic programme for the year, CAN has a job in hand to explore the possibility of promoting Nepal as an important cricket destination. Over the years many countries have looked at the potential of Sharjah, the famous cricket outpost in the Emirates.

While others have tried with mixed, and often disappointed, success, the tournaments between India and Pakistan in Toronto was watched by good crowds, but more importantly, the cable TV station ESPN paid $ 18 million for five years’ rights for it.

The Hong Kong Sixes remained a popular event for long with all Test playing nations. The Australian-inspired Malaysian eights tournament was the first attempt to get the eights concept moving, and showed that Kuala Lumpur had the desire and skill to stage big cricketing events.

Not to be left behind, Singapore is also well in the cricket market and they successfully staged the Singer Cup until 2000.

Obviously, there is one important factor - financial resources. But Kathmandu, with its mild weather and proximity to India and Pakistan as compared to other neutral venues, has always been a place that instantly appeals to any event hosts in the region.

The recent alliance that took place between CAN and Percept D’Mark, the leading Indian sports management and marketing company for 10 years is a testimony to the fact.

This should ease pressure off CAN to meet with ever raising expenses for running domestic programmes and fulfilling international commitments.

What CAN needs to do now is to ensure a smooth functioning of the programme as outlined in their contract: availability of cricket grounds for PDM to host international cricketing events. Much will depend on its ability to manage the income generated through this venture into game’s further development in the country.

Another important issue that calls the Nepali cricket officials to act wise is the establishment of Centre for Youth Cricket Academy.

Three countries - Nepal, Malaysia and the United Arab Emirates - were initially at sight of ACC for the establishment of the project. Adding to what the officials here claim: a strong ‘culture of cricket’ that most other minor countries lack, bonus of being strategically situated in South Asia - a geopolitical plus, visiting cricket officials had all praise for the country’s mild weather condition.

But sadly there is smell of politics in the air among Nepali officials over the choice of venue for the academy.

Sports officials should understand that ACC is the one that is making investment for the project and hence, holds every power to take it anywhere it feels suitable. Therefore, instead of quarrelling over the venue, what is most important at this point of time is to bring in the academy to Nepal.

Heady decentralisation

BEENA KHAREL

Left romanticism in this predominately Hindu kingdom is a subject of extremism. At least, this is deemed so by many. Either it is fantastically fantasised and fervently practised beyond the point of extremism as the Maoists are doing now, or completely shunned. Even the Red Army’s solid performance in the 1990 People’s Movement (a fact ascribed to by the Nepali Congress as well) did little to establish them as a strong political force to be reckoned with. Gradually, the unity of purpose demonstrated during the revolution began to falter, with each communist group going on its own and professing its own ideology.

Following the middle line was a path yet to be trodden. The Communist Party of Nepal (CPN-UML) cautiously stepped in. Four years after the restoration of multi-party democracy, the "middle communist party" was propelled to power. Whether CPN-UML’s rise to power could be attributed to the then Prime Minister GP Koirala’s follies or CPN-UML’s own caliber, or a mix of both is no longer an issue. But in this new political climate where prediction has become an unrewarding indulgence, retelling forgotten stories might be useful for political chitchat.

People remember CPN-UML’s nine-month-old reign for various reasons. Some for its "minority’ status, some for the then Local Development Minister CP Mainali’s alleged involvement in the sugar scam, and some for its novel economic and social measures. Build Your Village Yourself (BYVY), Constituency Development Fund (CDF) and allowance for the elderly top the list. During its brief stint in power, when CPN-UML announced CDF in 1995, it produced a loud table thumping in parliament— both from treasury and opposition benches. So much so, successive governments gave continuity to this programme. Reason: Each member of parliament was entitled to half a million rupees for "developing" his or her electoral constituency.

Although this "populist scheme" was initially taken positively, questions over the purpose and mechanism for mobilising the fund were raised later. As much as it was designed for garnering "cheap" popularity, it was also a modest attempt at decentralisation. How this scheme fed the wheels of local corruption is a different story altogether. For that matter, corruption, as we all know, is decentralised as well as centralised.

Although CDF was technically tied up to District Development Committees (DDCs), gross misuse and corruption in connivance with legislators and local bureaucrats gave the programme a bad name. People, who preferred one door policy in approving and releasing development through DDCs and other local units, found legislators’ involvement totally ludicrous and redundant. A legislator’s work is to make laws, not draft development proposals and approve them, they said. As with everything else, much is decided by firm commitment and values. But this is exactly where our elected leaders disappoint. On top of that, legislators seldom visit their constituencies to feel the pulse of their people. Their misery and grievances become essentially localised, while the development discourse becomes highly centralised.

Decades of haphazard efforts at decentralisation have only created more confusion and disillusionment. Successive governments have interpreted and played with this concept, depending on the expediency of the time. Even the dismantling of local Panchayat units and setting up a new democratic structure at the local level have hardly been helpful. So far, decentralisation has only been limited to deconcentration and delegation of authorities. Devolution, in true sense of the word, is still far away.

In view of dismal performance on the development front, donor agencies are advocating a bottom-top approach, where all development projects of the people, for the people and by the people are initiated at the grassroots level, with the government confining its role to that of a facilitator. The community forestry programme is a case in point. Mobilising local resources, indigenous skills with people as agents and beneficiaries of change will provide a stronger base for sustainable development.

The call for district-wise budget is in line with this principle. As has been the tradition, budgetary allocation, say, for education, is done in a "lumpsum" manner, without specifying target districts and people. In the absence of any planned allocation of budget, development in the education sector is being done in an adhoc manner. Which means far-flung and underdeveloped districts such as Humla, Jumla, Jajarkot and Rolpa continue to be pushed into a corner.

The communist party’s BYVY programme that allocated Rs 300,000 to each Village Development Committee (VDC) was almost a fiasco due to the absence of proper planning and consultation with local bodies, among others. Irrespective of the size, location, population and their socio-economic needs, all VDCs were granted an equal amount of development fund. Obviously, such programmes call for comprehensive region-wise planning, not a centralised planning, as is being done by Kathmandu-centric National Planning Commission.

Given the current political reprieve or "political vacuum", where local bodies are without elected heads, and taking the Lokendra Bahadur Chand government’s assurance of holding elections as early as possible at its face value, political and development discourse has more reasons to focus on strengthening local bodies, reviewing policies, making their implementation feasible and transparent, keeping the people at its center. A handful of non-governmental organisations, which are working at the grassroots level, and isolated cases of local success stories give no cause for complacency. Without legal leverage and effective enforcement of the Local Autonomy Act, relaxing the centre’s grip on local bodies and making them more autonomous and institutionally sound will be nothing more than an imported slogan.

On the move

The current migration trend in Nepal is markedly different from what it was seven or eight years ago. Fear element and survival instincts are into play more than ever before. Apart from poverty, unemployment and other push factors, the growing Maoist insurgency and the fear of being coerced into joining the outfit army are impelling people, especially the able-bodied youth of Mid-Western region, to leave their villages.

Many step across the border or enter Kathmandu Valley. More adventurous ones go abroad in search of livelihood. The Maoist-affected villages are now mostly inhabited by women, children and the elderly. The highest number of people entering the southern border was recorded at Rupedia, lying on the Nepal-India border in Nepalgunj, according to one news report.

Migration in various forms have been in vogue since ages—be it from north to south, or west to east. The hill-to-terai flow is a dominant pattern of migration. Of the 1.4 million out-migrants reported in the 1991 census, 86.2 per cent originated in highlands. The share of the hill zone increased to 72 per cent and that of the mountain zone declined to 14.2 per cent, compared to the year 1981, says Geographer Harka Gurung in Aspects of Migration and Mobility in Nepal. Updated data on migration are painfully lacking, however.

A compilation of various research-based articles, this new book is interspersed with interesting case studies, but they do not truly capture the representative characteristic of the migration phenomenon in various regions. Nonetheless, more case studies can be added to make the trend more revealing. Seasonal migration and trade strategy adopted by the Lobas of Lo Monthang in Mustang district, though still at a primitive stage, is quite impressive.

From Thak Khola’s Thakalis in the north-western part of Nepal to Damak’s Dhimal tribe, this interesting academic repertoire touches upon a wide range of issues, revolving around its socio-cultural theme. However, it does not deal with immigrants from across the border and their impact on Nepal’s socio-economic sphere.

A poignant account of a migrant’s wife who lives a "shadow life" in an obscure village amidst illiteracy, alienation and uncertainty is informative as well as moving.

For a beginner, interested in various facets of migration, this book will not be a let down. Especially at a time when demographic and regional imbalances and their socio-economic repercussions are emerging as a growing concern.

Revive the Parliament

The political crisis in Nepal can be explained in two folds. First, the cur rent ad hoc situation furthering the rift among democratic parties and the king and second, a violent force acting against all of them to destabilize the democracy. A positive way out from the first crisis only can provide a tangible and effective solution to the second one. Furthermore, any effort to resolve the present crisis should be legitimate and effective towards addressing the second crisis that is violent struggle to destabilize the democracy.

In the current crisis, the king has not yet been able to take political parties in confidence and the political parties so far have not realized their mistakes in the past and have yet to come up with a common modus operandi. They also need to assure the king that their position has not shifted regarding the role of monarch for democratic Nepal. But rather than creating a broader political spectrum to accommodate all the conflicting forces, political parties are still forwarding the agenda that best suit their interest only. The UML has yet to propose a solution to resolve the current crisis except its demand for early election – which, they themselves agree that, is not possible in the current situation. NC - although reiterated their demand for restoration of the parliament – has not been able to convince others. Sher Bahadur Deuba has not yet realized that had there been parliament in place, he would not have to quit from the chair after being labelled ‘inept’. At that time he did not realize that his whole power emanated from the parliament and unfortunately, it seems, he still does not recognize this. He is still trying to persuade the king to restore his status as prime minister.

The king must have realized by now that there is no magical solution to the current crisis and driving an institution from behind the curtain with a bunch of intellects lacking administrative experience and solidarity of views, is almost an impossible task. Although many of those - who he picked as "clean image" ministers for Chand cabinet - can be regarded as the best choice, the platform they are given to work in is next to impossible to perform them optimally. Although at the beginning some accepted the king’s step as the only solution to the current crisis, they too are frustrated by now. The king too is frustrated which emerged in a recent collective audience given to the ministers where he did not hide his disappointment with the performance of the ministers. But, in his despair he should not go on adding more mistakes to patch up earlier mistakes.

But even in this turmoil, it is apparent that all the democratic forces and the king are reiterating their commitment to protect the achievements of 1990 though they have adopted different means to meet that end. The democratic forces have often been prey to stratagems of Maoists and the current political vacuum gives Maoists playground to destabilize the democracy. The time has come to realize for all that such a vacuum in political spectrum should not continue any more and that can be done only by giving power back to the people and installation of a legitimate government. The prevailing situation is not favourable for election and mandate for the government can only come from a parliament. Among the options available, the best one that might yield immediate result is the restoration of the dissolved parliament.

In the current situation, the restoration of parliament does not necessarily mean that leading party would form one party government. Rather, the political parties should agree in advance to form an all-party government under the premiership of Chand that will restore the parliament and the parliament in turn will ratify the government. In this way, the power of the government will have a legitimate base and the king too will have his representation in any future dealings with the Maoists. Political parties should give the king assurance that his action to sack a democratically elected government will not be questioned in the parliament.

In this way, the country will move forward from the current ad hoc situation. Furthermore, any future dialogue with the Maoists to end the current cycle of violence will have representation from all democratic forces, including the king and the effort will have a legitimate power emanating from the parliament.

Jishnu Subedi
via email