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Kathmandu Monday February 25, 2002 Falgun 13, 2058.
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The next assault
Over the past year or so the scattered
outposts of the Nepali state have fallen like dominoes to the relentless assault of Maoist
forces. Help from the centre when it came has usually been too little and too late. The
latest to reel under rebel fury was Shitalpati in Salyan district where some 34 police
personnel lost their lives. The Maoists started taking on the security forces in a big way
when they devastated Dunai in Dolpa district. Since then there have been other showdowns
including in Solu, Bhakundebesi and Mangalsen. A turning point of sorts came when the
Maoists attacked the Royal Nepal Army barracks in Dang. It was a calculated escalation of
conflict by a group that had hitherto scrupulously avoided drawing the army into the
fighting. It was of course only a matter of time before they took on the army as well. And
when they did, they brought down a state of emergency upon the country. The government
also finally got the army fully on its side. It’s now been three months since the
emergency which has just been extended by another three months. But there is definitely no
light yet at the end of the tunnel. Under the constitution the state of emergency can be
in force for a maximum of one year. The question that is beginning to loom in the back of
some people’s minds is what the government is going to do when the emergency can no
longer be extended. By that time of course the country’s finances may also be in
tatters.
There are now clear warnings that Diktel, the
headquarters of Khotang district in the east, is going to be the next domino. The Maoist
terrorists are said to have gathered in strength in three neighbouring village development
committees. Their activities have increased markedly. By the looks of things, Diktel is
another sitting duck. The police outposts in Khotang have all withdrawn to the district
headquarters. The local army barracks has only 200 men. The Maoists will no doubt go for
their classic tactic of bringing to bear overwhelming and decisive force to accomplish
their goal before melting back into the surrounding hills. In Achham and other places too
there were warnings and indications beforehand that the Maoists were up to something
serious. Had the authorities in Kathmandu reacted in time, the pile up of fallen police
and armymen may not have been so high. The government might now ponder rushing in
reinforcements and taking other preemptive measures. Doing anything less would be
culpable. Although the doctrine according to Mao Zedung is to make noises in the east to
attack in the west, the comrades in this country do not seem to have adopted that tactic
yet. But the big underlying question is how do you defend a rugged country against the
depredations of a determined and increasingly daring rebel force which can lie in wait and
strike where and when it chooses. While the generals figure that one out, the government
must also take cognizance of the fact that the Maoists are slowly catching up with the
security forces in arms sophistication, and at the same time there are clear indications
now that foreign elements may have been involved in some of the recent fighting in Achham.
While the Maoist conflict was never just a military problem, it may now become a
diplomatic one as well. Another danger that the authorities should take cognizance of is
that further reverses in the field will be seriously detrimental to the morale of this
nation. |
