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Kathmandu Wednesday January 02, 2002 Paush 18, 2058.
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Proceed with caution
An ordinance on the formation of an armed police
force is to be promulgated soon as it has now been given the green signal by the Royal
Palace. Announcing this at a press conference the other day, Prime Minister Girija Prasad
Koirala also said the force would be used against the Maoist rebels, something which has
never been in doubt. The armed police force, which will initially have a strength of
l5,000, is eventually to grow to 25,000, and the personnel who comprise it will have
modern weaponry. Armed with this new force, the government may at last have an edge over
the elusive but effective Maoist guerrillas. The existing police force has not been able
to contain the insurgency, first because it is poorly armed, and also because it is too
thin on the ground. As Mr Koirala put it, the armed police force is part of a four-fold
strategy that the government has adopted. The other components of the strategy are
dialogue, political consensus, and an economic package for the Maoist-affected districts.
The economic package approach could have a gestation period that is too long. As for
political consensus, it can be ruled out for the time being as no consensus would be
meaningful without the Maoists themselves becoming a party to it through a process of
dialogue. That leaves dialogue and the greater use of armed force. What then are the
prospects for the armed police force option? Exercise of this option will lead to a
dramatic escalation in the bloodshed. Already, over the past five years of Maoist
insurgency, the police have killed just over l,000 Maoists. A sizeable number of civilians
have also been killed in the crossfire. Yet the increased cost in lives may not bring
about the desired goal. The armed approach will in all probability involve the tactic of
hot pursuit and denying the Maoists their base areas. That could only mean pouring more
men and material into the conflict. The Prime Minister has also said that if the
deployment of the armed police proves inadequate the next step will be to mobilize the
army. If things do go that far, and if the army also proves unequal to the task, then that
will be the end of the game. Use of the armed police force will also involve inordinately
higher expenditures. And should the fighting escalate still further, so will the bill.
Where is the government going to find the resources without putting the economy under a
severe strain? The poor subscription to a recent issue of government treasury bills
already indicates the low confidence that the public has in the soundness of our public
finances. Before going down the path of greater armed conflict the government should
proceed with caution, and seriously think about giving dialogue a sincere try. Past record
of dialogue with the Maoists has not been a particularly good one. The talks held have
been more about more talks than about seriously getting down to business. It should be
added in fairness that the Maoists have not been particularly enthusiastic about talks
either. Both sides have made a show of willingness to talk, only to score political
points. The government should approach talks in good faith the next time round. It should
be added in fairness that the Maoists have not been particularly enthusiastic about talks
either. Both sides have made a show of willingness to talk, only to score political
points. The government should approach talks in good faith the next time . |
