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Kathmandu Friday January 11, 2002 Paush 27, 2058.
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Indo-Pak conflict and
superpower
By Dr SHREEDHAR GAUTAM
Much has been written about the American war
against terrorism in Afghanistan. The war in Afghanistan was the third major crisis faced
by the world after the Cold War era- the other two being the Gulf war and the American-led
NATO attack on Yugoslavia. The Gulf war, for the first time, gave the sole superpower an
excuse to expand its goal of ‘World Order’, propounded by former US president
Bush soon after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Though Iraq’s occupation and
annexation of Kuwait was the immediate cause of the superpower intervention, it could have
been avoided had there been a regional crisis management mechanism in the Gulf. In the
absence of reliable regional security grouping among the Arabian countries, they could not
exercise sufficient pressure on Iraq to reverse its policy, and thus prevent the
intervention of superpower. Once the US forced its way into the area, it resorted to
massive arms build up in Saudi Arabia, and finally established ground base there unlike in
the past when it was confined to sea-based deployment.
Similarly, in the case of Yugoslavia too, the
American-led NATO force attacked the country arbitrarily in the absence of a regional
crisis management mechanism as well as the balancing act of Security Council in UNO.
Former Yugoslavia president Slovodan Milosevic could have been persuaded to modify his
ethnic policies if there had been an impartial security council and effective regional
association. Now the concept of regional grouping has gained new momentum with the growing
tension between India and Pakistan, both having nuclear capabilities. The conflict between
these two South Asian giants can again invite the intervention of superpower, which in all
likelihood will hardly make an exist without fulfilling its agendas for the World Order as
dreamt by the Senior Bush.
Incidentally, the US forces are deployed in the
Arabian Sea. They are in a position to intervene effectively in any major hostilities that
may break out between India and Pakistan. Neither country is in a position to continue the
war for a longer period without the tacit consent of USA. The Bush administration is seen
actively involved in the conflict with its repeated urge to both countries to practise
restrain. America, for its own sake, does not want an war to break out at this point of
time.
America also does not want India to gain
decisive victory in its fight against Pakistan despite the fact that Pakistan is the
principal battlefield in the war against terrorism. America wants the both countries to
give it the role of a mediator in resolving the Kashmir problem with its usual strategic
design of maintaining foothold in South Asian politics. Though India does not agree to the
demand of mediation by any third country, it can play no substantial role in global
politics without the consent of America as it has given up its considerable independent
space in the name of real politic.
The South Asian Association of Regional
Cooperation (SAARC) for peace, stability, amity, and progress in this region was
established in 1985 by seven countries with the hope of avoiding superpowers’
rivalry. But in its 16 year old history it has miserably failed to translate its declared
objective into practice, mainly due to the enmity between the two South Asian nuclear
powers. With the SAARC role becoming less and less symbolic in nature, there is every
possibility of the superpower making a direct interference in the internal affairs,
whenever it deems necessary. The Indo-Pak conflict is one of such potential opportunities
for the only superpower to expand its global strategic policy in South Asia.
India and Pakistan should understand that once
America is allowed to enter the region, their leaders in no time will be as ineffective as
Hamid Karazai, who could do nothing even as America is continuously and randomly dropping
bombs in every nook and corner of the country in the name of eliminating the Al-Qaeda
survivors or their sympathizers. Recently at least 70 people were reported to have been
killed in an US attack on a village in eastern Afghanistan. The attack was carried out
supposedly to destroy the ammunition depot of the now ousted Taliban government.
Similarly, some time ago, a convoy of Afghanistan’s tribal chiefs, who were to attend
the oath-taking ceremony of a new government in Kuwait, was attacked by the US force,
killing over 90 people.
Taking lessons from Afghanistan, India and
Pakistan should solve their differences through mutual dialogue without opting for the
military action. If they do not realize the gravity of the situation both the countries
will have to bear unbearable consequences. It is all the more important in the present
context when the UN cannot play any assertive role without the consent of the only
superpower. Before the collapse of the Soviet Union, the UN was comparatively an effective
organization. It played an important role against apartheid in South Africa and in other
cases and places. Now the situation has changed. America no more takes this institution
seriously. It takes its name only when it feels comfortable and completely ignores it when
it cannot be used to fulfil its own purpose. Now in Afghanistan America is pressing for
construction work under the banner of UN. The US is in fact making mockery of the UN; it
must be recalled here that the latter was completely ignored while starting unilateral
bombardment in Afghanistan.
Viewed in this background it is important for
South Asian countries, mainly for India and Pakistan to ponder on how to approach the
question of regional conflict. If we do not want outside power to poke their nose into our
regional business, it is necessary for us to take the initiative to make a regional
arrangement. This is a subject, which we should re-examine carefully and objectively. We
cannot deny that the Indo - Pak acrimony will have impact on other countries’
economic state and bilateral relation. It is therefore time that we South Asian countries
started rethinking on all issues. It will be an epoch of revolutionary change in our
thinking, for both small as well great countries of this region. It is especially time for
India and Pakistan to display daringly a new line of rethinking on regional issues before
they make a grave mistake of inviting superpower in the name of shaping foreign policy or
fighting terrorism.
The most contentious issue between the two
countries, Kashmir, the legacy of British colonialism, can be solved if both the countries
rise above their parochial stand. If India cannot agree to the demand of plebiscite for
the Kashmir people, it should give full autonomy to the state in all affairs, except in
foreign and defence matters. It should also look into the cases of state crimes and
injustices committed by security forces in the name of combating terrorism. Pakistan too
cannot afford making the Kashmir issue a never ending conflict. It should not encourage
and help any terrorist organization in the name of freedom struggle. Both the countries
should give up their belligerent policies for the sake of the people of this region.
Otherwise, the only superpower will turn these two countries into puppets.
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