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Kathmandu Monday January 28, 2002 Magh 15, 2058.
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‘Will SAARC ever take
off?’
By NAGENDRA CHHETRI
The long awaited eleventh SAARC (South Asian
Association for Regional Cooperation) summit took place just a few weeks ago after a gap
of almost three and half years. This summit, held in a most tense and crucial situation in
the region, was able to bring Nepal to the forefront of all major international media
something unprecedented in the modern history of this country not counting the June 1st
2001 national crisis. Although the nation was under a state of emergency and the army was
mobilised to curb terrorist activities, Nepal was finally able to bring together all the
other six regional heads of state/government at one table to make their statements. The
diplomatic skill Nepal displayed and the foolproof security it provided to the dignitaries
have once again strengthened the credibility of this nation. At a time when many believe
that terrorists thrive within the cracks of foundering states and many remote villages in
Nepal were in the grasp of terrorists, the government’s confidence in the ability of
the security forces has reinforced the confidence not only of the Nepalese but also the
international community in the security system of this country. The successful holding of
the SAARC summit has proved that the forces of order prevail over the forces of disorder
in this country although the clash would continue over the next few years. The security
arrangement came into sharp focus and went through an acid taste but came out with flying
colours even during the visit of US Secretary of State Colin Powell. The international aid
consortium for Nepal meeting is also being held in Kathmandu and Pokhara. This proves that
security in Nepal is foolproof.
Anyway, what Nepalese should take pride in is
that the two rival but principal actors i.e India and Pakistan who have been fighting
mainly over Kashmir, the unsolved legacy of partition, shook hands in the full glare of
the media, watched by millions around the world. This took place in the Nepalese capital
when the two were amassing troops along the border. This was one of the achievements of
the eleventh SAARC summit along with the commitments like the South Asian Preferential
Trading Arrangement (SAFTA) accord and collective efforts to combat terrorism, drug
trafficking and women trafficking. But what tangible achievements have SAARC made in its
15 year history and why not consider this?
SAARC was established with the aim of
alleviating poverty, identifying and exploiting potential areas for economic, social and
cultural cooperation amongst its members, and bringing a spirit of understanding and
cooperation to bear on future relations amongst them. All the countries in the region are
bound by many common values rooted into their social, ethnic, cultural and historical
traditions and therefore a regional grouping such as SAARC can provide a logical response
to the multitude of problems of the region. Their individual and regional strengths, their
potential as a huge market and their substantial human and natural resources are
tremendous. Given genuine and sincere effort to mobilise these resources by all the
members, SAARC could be an affective regional cooperation body which can make optimum use
of this potential for the maximum benefit of the people, and can accelerate the pace of
their economic development thereby enhancing their national and collective self-reliance.
Despite all these possibilities and efforts
SAARC has not really been able to take off. There are many reasons for this, external as
well as internal. The external are mainly that the member countries have established
strong linkages with their respective major donors. The imports of these countries are
aid-tied, explicitly or implicitly. Any region oriented import trade is constrained by the
dynamics of their aid dependence. India and Pakistan, the principal actors, locked as they
are over Kashmir and because of their continuing insecurity perception vis a vis each
other based on past wars and hostilities, maintain and strengthened their defence related
external linkages. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the disintegration of the Soviet
Union, the power struggle and rise and fall of the Taliban as well as the terrorist attack
at the Indian Parliament on December 13, have brought a sea change in the power game in
South Asia. The biggest hitch in the development of SAARC, probably the youngest of all
regional grouping, is the article in its charter which prohibits a bilateral issue from
being raised at the summit, and in the SAARC countries there are serious and sharp
bilateral issues that need to be sorted out if SAARC is to ever become a strong regional
body like ASEAN or the EU. Almost all the neighbours have some kind of uneasy relations
with India and that has got to be sorted out first.
India being a large country by all accounts, the
largest in the region has to show some magnanimity towards its smaller partners if SAARC
is to fulfil its mission. No one denies the fact that India is the most powerful regional
player simply because of its shape, size, central location, economic and military power,
population and resources, although it is expected to treat all its neighbours as equal
partners and still play a pivotal role in all SAARC programme. Whether we like it or not,
unless India shows a positive attitude towards SAARC, unless all disputes, including
territorial, are amicably solved, SAARC will not develop. Drug abuse, drug trafficking,
illicit arms trade and terrorism, including cross-border, will continue to pose a serious
threat to security and stability in the region. When the major irritants are removed SAARC
can become a role model of economic development and embark on its collective programme of
cooperation in a more confident manner. It can spare time and resources for a collective
war against terrorism, poverty, hunger and disease, the objective of SAARC. India and
Pakistan can use the resources, now used on defence, to improve the quality of life for
millions of people. SAARC must draw lessons from the EU, ASEAN, GCC, and many other
groupings/alliances if it wishes to fulfil its lofty ideals in future. SAARC lacks within
itself a basic inherent confidence building mechanism. Unless mutual suspicion,
threatening the vital interests of member countries, is removed and confidence building
measures are taken for the common development of the whole region without hampering anyone’s
interests, SAARC will not take off.
There is a school of thought which tends to
believe that the SAARC summit was hijacked by Indo-Pak tension over the issue of Kashmir,
but actually Nepal was able to bring these two belligerent nations together in Kathmandu.
Many believe that India should rethink its decision of denying its airspace to Pakistan
Airlines in view of the overall impact on neighbours in the economic, political and
diplomatic fields? For this school of thought, India’s big brother attitude is a
stumbling block for SAARC. Instead of creating an ugly Indian, Pakistani or Nepalese
picture why cannot all sit down together and talk? If India and Pakistan ever accept the
present LOC as a permanent international border will the Kashmiris stop their so called
freedom struggle? This region has been in intense conflict for the last fifty-five years.
Is it not time to settle this unfinished legacy of partition in the sub-continent?
There is another school of thought as to why
SAARC cannot and will not take off. This is geographic non-convergence of the membership.
Pakistan has been looking toward the West and North i.e the Economic Cooperation
Organisation (ECO) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). India on the other
hand, is tending to look East and South. These tendencies clearly indicate that both the
principal actors are exploring better alternatives. There seems to be a strong feeling in
India that the concept of SAARC itself is a ganging up of smaller neighbours against it.
So far there is no major bilateral or multilateral investment in each other’s
country. Both in India and Pakistan there is still a mix feeling, await and see attitude
till a better serving alternative is found. May be India is looking towards ASEAN
countries like Vietnam as a close and practical partner as both have suffered attacks from
China, and are natural allies against the perceived expansionism of that country. The
shape and size of India, its central position, its economic strength, its industrial
growth rate, its military might, its aspiration to world status and permanent membership
in the Security Council simply will not allow SAARC to take off effectively however benign
be the Indian foreign policy of treating as equal partners all smaller neighbours. Studies
show that Indian public opinion is clearly divided on this issue. Globalisation dictates
that India ignore SAARC and look for something more substantial rather than providing a
strong platform for smaller neighbours to stand up in collectively against India itself.
In a such scenario will SAARC ever take off?
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