On the brink of collapse

By PRAVAKAR ADHIKARI

It is good to know that His Majesty’s Government has constituted a high level committee to study and analyse various aspects of the functioning of Royal Nepal Airlines Corporation (RNAC) and submit a report with suggestions to develop and expand the national flag carrier as an effective airline. It is saddening to note that at present RNAC has more than Rs 2.5 billion in debt, and is virtually on the brink of collapse. If a serious political will has motivated the formation of the committee, then it is still not too late to bail out the national flag carrier from the present crisis.

First of all, it may be pertinent to mention here that RNAC came into being on July 1, 1958 through an Act of Parliament and started its operations with one Dakota (DC-3). Since then, it started to grow and attained its peak after HMG introduced a liberalisation policy in the aviation sector in 1992. Through promulgation of this policy, the "lone bird" days for RNAC in Nepalese skies were over. Furthermore, HMG introduced the National Civil Aviation Policy on August 31, 1993, within less than one and half years of providing the first Provisional Air Operators Certificate (PAOC) to the private sector. This policy was prepared after reviewing the prevailing domestic and international air transport services and duly considering the privatisation policy pursued by HMG. The policy has a clear provision on RNAC. In order to make RNAC move ahead with the times in the national and international arenas, bifurcation of the national flag carriers into the international and domestic services has been envisioned.

The idea behind such a provision is to develop RNAC (international) by looking for a foreign airline as a joint venture partner. Regarding the domestic front, it is mentioned that "the government shall keep 51 percent of shares and later gradually reduce the portion of its shares." It is also clearly mentioned in the policy that the rest of the shares should be floated to private shareholders who will eventually take over RNAC. Eight years have elapsed since promulgation of the policy but there is no sign of bifurcation. In the absence of such privatisation policy, RNAC (domestic) will collapse, as it cannot compete with private airlines. The main reasons for this are political interference, huge and unnecessary administrative expenses, subsidy, corruption, a traditional and outdated approach, inability to keep up with the present pace, etc. Since liberalisation of the aviation policy, RNAC’s domestic market share has shrunk to less than one-fifth of the total market, and is declining further day by day. For this very reason HMG had introduced a bifurcation policy, but it failed to implement the same. And rather resorted to excessive control and political interference. As a result, 13 Chief Executives were changed since promulgation of the National Civil Aviation Policy. Some of their terms expired in less than three months. Leasing of aircraft has always brought political turmoil and financial burden to RNAC. It is an open secret that politicians have virtually taken RNAC as a source of personal gain without bothering about its welfare. It is still not too late if HMG implements its policy on bifurcation keeping in mind the current trend in the international airline industry. I do not think any joint venture partner is ready to invest in RNAC without bifurcation. Past experience with operation of domestic airlines in Nepal shows that as of today none of the domestic airliners has proved to be financially credible and professionally capable of taking over RNAC as it is today. Even in the domestic sector, without a market alliance and without the forwarding hands of partnership with other domestic airliners, it will be very difficult for airlines to survive in Nepal as there is cut-throat competition.

Furthermore, due to the present global scenario, it may also not be in the interest of a joint venture partner to join hands with RNAC without bifurcation. This has become more evident especially in the aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks in the US. The airline industry and tourism worldwide have suffered heavily and incurred heavy losses after the attack. Even the biggest airlines in the US, Europe and Asia had to take drastic steps like laying off thousands of employees, reducing or discontinuing non-profitable destinations and adopting cost cutting economy measures to sustain and survive. Some airlines were saved from collapse by local governments, bailed out with liberal grants/loans, while some of the famous airlines have collapsed and become history.

It is tragic that RNAC suffered a double blow in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in the US. It was already suffering from a global economic slowdown, mismanagement and low staff morale, heavy losses on most of the routes, the hijack of IC 814, the Hrithik Roshan episode, Maoist violence and so on. By now we all have realised that the reasons for not bifurcating RNAC are, one, it was treated as plague and two, it is still treated as a milching cow by politicians in power to appoint cronies to top management posts and manipulate transfers and postings abroad for chosen and favourite staff, apart from encouraging corruption in aircraft lease deals and procurement in the form of commissions. Due to mismanagement all international routes, with minor exceptions, were incurring losses, and domestic losses made the situation even worse. Had it bifurcated, a foreign partner for RNAC on the international side and the private sector on the domestic side would have run it as a commercial organisation, and thereby made handsome profits.

It may be noted that all over the world a national flag carrier is considered to be a window on the destination. An airline may not be able to operate worldwide due to capacity and aircraft constraints. That is not necessary. What is important is to have efficient and wise management and airline partners to maintain a presence as well as earn substantial profits besides promoting tourism for the country, which in turn generates employment and income in related areas of the economy like the hotel industry, foreign exchange earnings, government revenues from visa/departure taxes etc. It is ironic that many airlines, established around the same time as RNAC, have become leading airlines and part of the global airlines alliance network in the world, while RNAC has shrunk after losing its monopoly through the liberalised aviation policy. It could not compete with the private sector on the domestic front, and it could not join hands with successful carriers on the international front.

In the last 4-5 years, the airline industry has all over the world gone through very rapid developments. Those which were unable to compete with bigger airlines joined hands with the established ones, including through equity participation and management. One such example is the Sri Lankan airline and Emirates where Emirates invested 40 percent in equity and in lieu has taken full management control of the Sri Lankan Airline.

Likewise, marketing alliances exist among major world airlines, viz Star Alliance which consists of United Airlines, Lufthansa, Scandinavian Airlines System, Thai Airways, Singapore Airlines etc. One world membership consists of American Airlines, British Airways, Qantas, Cathay Pacific Airways etc, Wing Alliance membership consists of North-West, KLM and Continental, Own Alliance membership consists of Delta, Air France etc. By joining hands, these airlines have pulled their resources together as well as avoided competition on parallel routes. But by not implementing a good aviation policy at RNAC, HMG has failed to catch up with the global trend. Furthermore RNAC has also not followed the prevailing international commercial policy. As a result, RNAC is now on its deathbed.

On a world map, Nepal is an attractive adventure destination with satisfactory tourists related infrastructure, but when it comes to aviation, it has missed the opportunity through total mismanagement, political interference and failure to follow the aviation policy as well as the prevailing international commercial policy which might have taken it to new heights. The recent formation of a committee to make RNAC efficient has no meaning unless the government has an open mind on freeing its management from the clutches of politicians and letting it run as a commercial organisation under professional foreign management. Needless to say Air France Management, introduced in the early 70s, lifted the image of RNAC and also changed the working pattern of officials. This arrangement should be continued until bifurcation takes place.

In the mean time, in order to satisfy the needs of ailing tourism related industries and also to uplift the economy, HMG should allow other international airlines to operate flights in the "Open sky" so that more tourists could be brought to Nepal. The alternative way of survival for RNAC till bifurcation takes place could be to join hands with some willing airline in the domestic sector and operate flights jointly under commercial arrangements. In the international market, RNAC could reach similar agreements and generate additional revenue by utilising available traffic rights and without having to utilise its own aircraft. Last but not the least, if the government still does not realise the gravity of the situation at RNAC and come forward with schemes to save it from disaster, the national carrier will collapse in no time and will soon be consigned to history.

Camouflage

By SUMIT SHRESTHA

Even though the iron bars of Alcatraz had been pulled  down years ago, I am still shackled in invisible cuffs. It’s only my two years in the most reputed University and I possess nothing valuable than reminiscence of my deserted past and my uncertain future. I am not a culprit but still I hide my face behind a mask.

After being detached from heaven and landed up in this anonymous environment, I strongly felt the lack of identity and belongingness. With emptiness creeping in through every corner, it seemed as if I held the sole life in the whole quad.

Friends are like aliens from a celestial civilization. In fact, I don’t have any, nor have I ever yearned for one. I wonder, why it is that, when they brag about the grades they got in physics test or the basketball shots they tried out the day before, I listen and when I talk about my feelings, about the amusing things happened to me, they daydream? If truth were told, I pretend to laugh at their silly jokes, which I usually don’t understand. I pretend to cry in their pain, but to be frank, I feel glad to see them suffering. I feel relieved when they are tired and exhausted. I find joy in their pain. I just hate them. There isn’t any room for mutual relationship. My thoughts, my action, and my identity all remained engraved within self. I carry my own hope, my own destination and my own means to achieve it. It has been a couple of years since my exile but still it is hard for me to adapt to this extraterrestrial surrounding.

The University reflects the cold-war battlefront. I enter my classroom and scatter my vision all around, I find none, except for adversaries. Like a fly trapped in cobweb, I am trapped and pressed beneath the weight of knowledge and logic concealed inside thick dusty books. I know I can’t conquer them but still I accept the challenge. I was never a victor, but I wasn’t a dark horse either. Teachers swing their magic wand and cast black spell over our minds. Every sunrise in the east summons to combat. I spend all my artilleries and die a veteran death. With every sunset in the west, I lie beneath the soil and I spend the rest of the night in Hell. In even a single combat, I fear to lose, because once I lose, it becomes a habit and I do well know, this planet has no place for losers.

Every morning I cross the Iron Gate and I feel as if I am in a cosmic cemetery. Souls of dead lurk behind the bushes. My hopes, my enthusiasm bury themselves beneath an unseen crucifix. I shed tears and I die inside. Emptiness and vague thought take their place. Every single corpse reflects my identity. I try to fight. I try to defend my integrity but in vain.

People talk great things about impartiality and equality. They beckon for hale and hearty relationship between a tutor and a scholar. These great talks are very pleasant to hear but are not so sweet to implement. Tutors impose their supremacy and compel us to overrule our discipline. In my two-year experience, I have seen many bitches exploit their femininity as a precision weapon that can melt even the harder of the hardest and pull down the superiors.

What we deserve, what we yearn is a clean education and more than that, a clean atmosphere. The sad thing is, I haven’t found either. All I find is lies, masks and ruins of antiquated charms. I suffocate in this fake charisma. I know; I am reluctant to accept the truth. In fact I struggle to run away from it pretending as if I already know it. I live in the fantasy of my own thoughts. I foster my own hopes. I am bleak, wild and untamed. I am mean in my thoughts and ruthless in my action. I feel no sin to admit it because it is what I am. My dream, my aspiration for clean teaching is now only a dream. The world is a jungle and everything is a utopian Camouflage.

The dragging emergency ?

By BASANTA LOHANI

The road map is all set. On the 59th day, the Deuba government decided to convene the 21st session of the parliament to seek approval to the State of Emergency declared on Monday, November 26, 2001 as per article 115 (1) of our constitution. The next day King Gyanendra summoned the session for Sunday, February 10, 2002. It is mandatory that this declaration "shall be laid before a meeting of the House of Representatives for approval within three months from the date of issuance." If the house does not approve it before February 25, this declaration of the state of emergency "shall be deemed ipso facto to cease to operate." What this means is that unless the main opposition party agrees to go with the government directly or indirectly when this order is laid before the house, the emergency will automatically come to an end. However, this is precisely what will not happen. The reason is very simple to understand.

In the meantime, the main opposition has already pressed the government for an amendment in the constitution. This is for defining a new power sharing arrangement. And, they have come up with a tactical posture linking their support with this amendment. Alternatively, their support is not free but contingent upon meeting their demand. This is something like killing not just two birds with one stone but three. To steer their way ahead, they have decided to use emergency to tread past the Nepali Congress playing one faction against the other, the Maoist with a stick-and-carrot policy and finally for securing indigenous and exogenous blessings. The way their facade has always been, this new design actually is likely to end up in yet another facade of self-deception because the contradictions are too wide apart for an alliance of convenience.

The ratification or approval of the state of emergency "by two thirds majority of the House of Representatives present at the meeting" is a foregone conclusion. The question is only the mode of this ratification that the UML may choose. The direct mode is by way of voting for it in the house. And, the indirect mode is to walk out or abstain from the meeting when the order is laid for voting. Either way the effect is the same in terms of its ratification but the indirect way perhaps may provide better elbowroom. Therefore, the main opposition may negotiate for some immediate term gain with the second alternative while going with on the posture of constitutional amendment. We still do not know the gain they are aiming at but we all know from past experience that the individuals anchoring these parties - be they majority, main opposition or minority - are all living to maximize their
gain on a day to day basis. This is precisely the reason how we have arrived at this state of emergency.

I had raised two questions earlier in my writings. The first was how long the government can convince the people about the justification of the emergency. Likewise, the second was how long the government can manage the emergency economy. Both these questions have become so mind boggling with the passage of time that they now appear like a ‘perilous skein of politics’. The way our constitutional provision is, emergency can continue to a maximum period of one year. But when we see how our politicians have flouted our constitution all along in terms of not allowing the letter and spirit of the constitution to converse, the period of emergency becomes elusive. This itself becomes a kind of nerve warfare. However, I do not intend to go any further in this area at present. One thing we know for sure is that democracy and emergency cannot continue together for long. If they are made to do so, then it becomes a different kind of a mixture that does not mix in the present apparatus.

The hard hit are the politicians outside government because the political vacuum, among other things, is hurting their lucrative profession. May be it was too early to oppose or they wanted an auspicious time to start or some other thing, their collective voice for an early end of emergency was heard after the New Year. Now we hear them saying that emergency has provided "no improvement in the law and security" despite having to bear 25 percent cut in the development budget for funding security. All the nine parliamentary committees are now in unison demanding justification of the emergency from the government. Interestingly, to rise above his party’s 113-majority in parliament, Girija Prasad Koirala, as the ruling party’s president, had set out much earlier for his edited version of national government through his undefined broader democratic alliance in his effort to pull out a pigeon from his hat. He did so almost one and half months after being forced to hand over the government to his pupil turned political rival Sher Bahadur Deuba on July 22.

This month of January is a month full of events that have strengthened the government in terms of support from outside and, at the same time, having to face increasing dissent from inside. The month unfolded with the 11th SAARC Summit rescheduled to January 5 and 6. Nepal hosted it for the second time and it helped soften marginally the bipolar regional confrontation between India and Pakistan. Another prominent event was the first ever visit by the US Secretary of State on January 19, and, as it is said, ‘he came on his own.’ I think this visit brings two facets into focus. The first is an awareness of the American establishment that there can be no safe America without a safe world that it shares together with others. September 11 became an eye opener. This region of South Asia and its vicinity became a matter of crucial concern both economically and in terms of security. Therefore, its stability came under US priority.

Secondly, while in Nepal, Colin Powell reinforced American commitment to our constitutional monarchy and democracy. He cited Nepal’s achievements but the undercurrent of failed development because of erosion in governance was visible when he underscored that the only way to "dry up the swamp that produces terrorism" was through good governance. I could agree no less. I have been constantly putting across that it is this greed-propelled corruption that has devoured the democratic system of check and balance in good governance that was to deliver the goods to the people. This is how there is a positive correlation between failed development under a failed state breeding violence and the insatiable greed of politicians that could not be tied up through a system. In a situation like this, increasing dozes of foreign aid, at times in collusion, have only added more fuel to this fire of greed resulting in successively increased level of social tension and violence. This is how the swamp that produces terrorism has widened up.

This small and beautiful country with incredible simple people could have been managed if only the leaders were a little god fearing, law abiding and had some vision. This paucity has resulted in where we are today with a swamp that is surely not drying up. The economy is in shambles and the government is living day by day with a supplementary budget, with no indigenous strength for development. The finance minister says that the government does not even have a counterpart fund for securing foreign assistance. But an effort to link it with the emergency alone and ignore plunder and failures is another dishonesty. It was going downhill and all the emergency did was to make this situation overt. Besides, the state of emergency itself is the culmination of failures. At this rate, can the government defeat the Maoists when there is no sign of the swamp drying up. Surely, the emergency cannot drag on no matter how the first act of the current drama of stage-managed politics will unfold in about three weeks time.