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| Kathmandu, Thursday January 02, 2003 Paush 18, 2059. |
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Nuclear disarmament through
non-proliferation
By HIRA BAHADUR THAPA
Promoting nuclear disarmament will certainly
make positive contributions to the improvement of present conditions of international
peace and security. Whereas the global community remains convinced of this contention,
there seems to be divergent views with respect to the means of realizing the goals of
nuclear disarmament. One must admit that the goals of nuclear disarmament as reflected in
Article VI of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) have become
disappointingly illusory. The essence of Article VI of the NPT is to seek the elimination
of nuclear weapons to which all nuclear weapon states have committed to achieve under
effective international verification system. NPT has come into effect since 1970.
Hence its history of three decades is a mixed bag of success and
failures.
Ever since the United Nations took up the issue
of nuclear disarmament, a good number of multilateral and bilateral treaties have been
concluded. These treaties include nuclear-weapon-free zones like Antarctica Treaty, Treaty
of Tlatelolco, both of which ban possession and deployment of all kinds of nuclear weapons
in the respective geographic regions. The Atmospheric Test Ban Treaty of 1963, which
partially bans nuclear testing, also contributes to nuclear non-proliferation. The 1970
NPT prohibiting acquisition of nuclear weapons in order to encourage nuclear
non-proliferation is one of the important accomplishments of the UN in the field of
nuclear disarmament.
One of the two fundamental articles of the
Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons requires that the five acknowledged
nuclear weapon states viz China, France, Russia, UK and the USA should refrain from
supplying nuclear technology and materials to non-nuclear weapon states.
Furthermore, NPT article also stipulates that nuclear weapon states should seek the
abolition of their nuclear arsenals. For non-nuclear weapon states the requirement under
the provisions of the NPT article is that, they should renounce their willingness to
acquire nuclear weapons. This renunciation of non-nuclear weapon states is to be rewarded
by offering them nuclear technology by the developed countries for peaceful uses of
nuclear
energy.
Whatever virtuous objectives the NPT might have
contained in its text, ominously the world is getting over armed even with the emergence
of a few nuclear capable states. The May 1998 South Asian nuclear explosions have exposed
the limitations of the NPT. The fundamental objective of the NPT is to stem proliferation
of nuclear weapons both vertically and horizontally. For the lack of progress in halting
the proliferation of nuclear weapons nuclear weapon states are to be basically blamed.
Unwillingness on their part to seriously engage in negotiations leading to elimination of
their nuclear arsenals combined with the evolution of deterrent theory in respect of
nuclear weapons have impeded desirable achievement in nuclear disarmament.
The premise of the deterrent theory is that
nuclear weapons should be retained for discouraging one’s adversaries to launch
nuclear attack for fear of credible retaliation. Unconvincingly though, the proponents of
such theory even believe that possession of nuclear weapons by one state makes nuclear war
less likely. They even tend to suggest that Kargil war of 1999 was halted because
both rivals engaged in the confrontation claimed to have nuclear capability to cause
irreparable damage to each other. However, the world community is skeptical about
this contention. Many do not believe that nuclear weapons play positive roles in averting
prospective wars.
The theory of nuclear deterrence provokes others
to acquire and retain nuclear weapons by emboldening themselves with retaliatory capacity.
The goal of nuclear disarmament, which is to abolish nuclear arsenals of the nuclear
weapon states, will not be realized through the policy of nuclear deterrence. There is
enough empirical evidence to show that this policy has not stemmed the proliferation of
nuclear weapons.
The Treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear
Weapons (NPT) is the only existing most universal global norm setter for nuclear
non-proliferation. It seeks to strengthen the regime of non-proliferation by discouraging
non nuclear weapon states to acquire nuclear weapons and by goading them to start serious
negotiations leading to the elimination of nuclear weapons. By stemming proliferation of
nuclear weapons, through conclusion of both arms control and arms reduction agreements, we
can advance the cause of nuclear disarmament. The recent achievements in the field of
disarmament culminated in the conclusion of START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) I
& II including US-Russia Bilateral Agreement of May 2002 to reduce their strategic
arms can be building blocks to move closer to the goals of abolition of nuclear weapons.
The current world scenario in terms of peace and
security is far from satisfactory. Some negative trends like increased military
expenditure to the level of US $850 bn per annum can fuel the apprehension that
disarmament causes to be in the priority list. To counter such apprehension the nuclear
weapon states, which unequivocally undertook during 2000 NPT review conference to achieve
nuclear disarmament, should engage themselves in serious negotiations leading to the
elimination of nuclear arsenals.
(The author is associated with Ministry of
Foreign Affairs)
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