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FAR AND WIDE
Tories Struggle For Boosting Poll Prospects

By EagleEye

WITH general elections not more than five months away, Britain’s Conservative Party is suffering acute embarrassment as a result of certain remarks pertaining to race issue made by its leader William Hague. Considering that the Conservatives are desperately looking for ways and means of boosting its fighting chance in the forthcoming general elections, the on-going controversy that Hague is embroiled in could not have come at a worse time. His remarks on a report by an independent committee into the murder of a black teenager Stephen Lawrence have provoked criticism from not only the ruling Labour Party but also his own party members. Hague was strongly against the observation in the report, which described the British police as "institutionally racists."

‘DEMORALISING’: While add-ressing the Centre for Policy Studies, rightwing think tank the other day, the Tory chief had accused the "liberal elite" of demoralising the police force by misusing the conclusions carried in what is known as the Macpherson report. If elected, he said, his government would "take on and defeat the attitude of condescending liberal elite that has never trusted the police and now wants us to believe they are all racists."

Prime Minister Tony Blair was quick to issue a statement describing the rival party leader’s remarks as disreputable. The Liberal Democrats also denounced the Hague speech. Within the Conservative Party itself, someone like former Prime Minister Edward Heath did not hesitate to rebuke Hague on the issue. Heath is known for having sacked Enoch Powell from his shadow cabinet in 1968, when the latter made controversial remarks on immigrants. Powell, who at one time was seen as a future prime ministerial material, never really recovered from the damage he suffered from the incident and he could not get elected as party chief.

Political opponents are likely to raise the issue threadbare, coming as the Hague speech does only a few months before general elections. Indeed, the controversy has caused damage to Hague’s image and might even affect the Conservative Party’s poll prospects. Undoubtedly, there are several months for the elections but the task of the Tories has become more arduous after Hague’s controversial remarks.

INNINGS ENDED: Prime Minister Blair four years ago ended the long Conservative innings on the seat of government. Margaret Thatcher led her party to three consecutive victories before she stepped down when dissidents within the party wanted a change in leadership. She was visibly upset but had some consolation when she was replaced by John Major, who became Thatcher’s choice as well Major also led his party to victory but could not repeat it the next time when the Blair-led Labour emerged triumphant. Not long ago, there seemed a slight improvement in the Conservatives’ prospects at the polls but this proved to be only a flash in the pan. The Labour regained what was perceived as having lost for some time.

Having been defeated at the polls for four consecutive times, there was desperation in the Labour Party. Blair infused a sense of new hopes and confidence in the run up to the last general elections. As indicated by public opinion polls, Blair led his organisation to a comfortable majority. His popularity was very high, with the public approval rating more than 80 per cent for a long time. The past one year saw a degree of fluctuation but was still high.

Such being the case, it is no surprise that Hague has drawn flak from different sides within his own party and others. His party members are unhappy that he should have made such remarks at all. How the Tory leader will steer the course in the run up to the general elections will, therefore, be closely watched. Unlike in many other countries, political parties in Britain expect their leaders to step down if they fail to deliver the expected goods for long. A leader normally resigns from his post if he or she fails to lead the party to electoral triumph. If the failure is repeated in the next elections as well, the leader can be expected with almost certainty to resign, failing which the party members themselves do not hesitate to show him the exit gate.

ADVANTAGE LABOUR: As of now, the Labour Party seems to be headed for a second term in office and, with it, Blair will be retained at London’s 10 Downing Street. Hague’s concern is whether his party members will blame his recent controversial remarks for such defeat. If poll defeat could be delinked with the remarks on race, he would have a fighting chance of retaining his position as party leader. He can only hope that the current controversy will tide over in the next few months but rival
party members are likely to have a long memory when it comes to an issue that has the potential of causing difficulties for a rival.

Blair himself has sought to remain relatively quiet on the remarks after his office issued a prompt statement denouncing Hague’s remark. But this is unlikely to subdue his party members. In fact, the prime minister might be tempted to take up the issue more frequently during the election campaign. Hague and his close associates are assessing the situation arising from the controversial remarks. They are likely to work out a strategy aimed at damage control. Such a task will need appropriate and convincing gesture in order to reassure voters that the Tory leader did not mean ill of any section of the population in any way.

CURRENT PROSPECTS: The Conservatives will be spending considerable time and energy at damage control throughout the winter months. They might or might not succeed. Even if they succeed, it will not necessarily mean that their poll prospects will improve tremendously. What it can do is to at least leave the field clear of a controversy that their party never wanted. The Labour Party members, on the other hand, are hoping that their current stock will be maintained for the rest of the period leading to election day. Should the Labour government’s current approval rating be maintained till the spring season, the Labour could be re-elected next year for a second successive time, for which their leaders should not commit the sort of error that the Conservative leader made recently.

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