Russia’s Chechen War
Impact At Home And Abroad

By M.R. Josse

ONLY a few days remain before Russia’s presidential election on March 26 in which Acting President Vladimir Putin is, by all accounts, considered to be the leading contender with a pre-poll popularity rating in the range of 60 per cent.

HARDLINER: What is also notable is that Putin’s popularity in Russia is directly linked to the efficiency of his ruthless crackdown for now over five months against Muslim rebels in the southern republic of Chechnya.

Indeed, Putin’s uncompromising approach to Chechen rebels has apparently boosted his standing with a Russian public that was badly shaken after a wave of deadly apartment block bombings in Moscow in September last year in which nearly 300 people were killed in attacks attributed to Chechnya-based Islamic guerrillas.

Though Putin has largely achieved his objective of brutally crushing the Chechen rebels before the election — though at the cost of pretty heavy casualties — some rebel activity, including deadly ambushes, is still alive as of this writing.

While the Chechen capital Grozny is now virtually a heap of rubble — thanks to what observers say has been the most intensive aerial bombardment since the end of the Second World War — a hornets’ nest of protest and concern has been stirred in the West over allegations of “war crimes” by Putin’s troops.

In fact, Lord Judd, head of a recent Council of Europe delegation touring the war-ravaged region with a view to investigate reports of human rights abuses, expressed utter shock at the scale of devastation witnessed in Grozny.

In his own words: “It seems to me terrible that at the beginning of the 21st century, on the continent of Europe itself, you can see large-scale destruction and consequent suffering...It seems to be that ordinary innocent people are the ones who have paid the highest price.”

All that notwithstanding, it is significant — surely — that British Prime Minister Tony Blair considered it propitious to pay a visit to Russia and to be seen doing business with Putin just two weeks before the Russian election.

Incidentally, it may be noted that official British criticism of Russia’s nasty war in Chechnya has been significantly more muted that corresponding approbation of the same in Germany and France.

In Germany, public opinion was inflamed by recent TV footage showing “atrocities” committed by Russian troops in Chechnya.

DOING BUSINESS: Coming back to the Blair visit — the first by a Western leader, since Putin’s meteoric ascent to the Russian presidency — it is revealing that he sought to balance European concerns over the conduct of Russia’s Chechen war with the need to continue to engage Russia which, almost certainly, will be ruled by Putin, at least for the next few years.

Thus, Blair declared in St. Petersburg: “I explained the concerns that Great Britain and other parts of the international community have — concerns that any response should be proportionate and that allegations of human rights abuses (in Chechnya) should be properly investigated.”

Notably, Blair went on to add this caveat: “We also understand Chechnya isn’t Kosovo and some of the things that have been done by the Chechen rebels have been appalling acts of terrorism.”

Also worthy of note is Blair’s display of bonhomie, somewhat reminiscent of Margaret Thatcher’s famous statement about Mikhail Gorbachev about being able to “do business” with him.

That is apparent from these remarks: “I’d like to say how much I enjoyed the dialogue, which was a very good omen for the future” — observations which clearly suggest that, as far as Blair is concerned, Putin’s victory in the presidential election is a foregone conclusion.

Putin for his part, appears to have softened his earlier uncompromisingly hardline stance on Chechnya, by suggesting that Russia was willing to let the Organisation for Cooperation and Security in Europe (OSCE) play a role in the region.

His government, though, has flatly rejected accusations that its troops have committed war crimes in Chechnya and has barred international observers from setting up base in the republic. Putin, meanwhile, has not surprisingly stuck to his guns on not holding peace talks with Chechen rebels.

Putin seems to understand that although the West, including the US, have been critical of human rights abuses in the Chechen war, they do not wish to see Putin face the kind of setbacks that might upset his clear chance of winning the presidential sweepstakes, come March 26.

That apart, there are also at least two other key factors that limit the West’s willingness — or capacity — to blow their top over what is generally regarded as indiscriminate use of force by the Russian military in Chechnya.

One, of the course, concerns the fact that the West has, time and again, spoken out — and even invoked sanctions — against what it regards as acts of international terrorism.

With the Russian argument that the Chechen rebels have engaged in unmitigated terrorism — as, for example, demonstrated in the Moscow apartment block bombings last Autumn — it is clearly awkward for the West to tell Putin that their prescription against international terrorism is meant only for themselves, not for Russians.

DILEMMA: Indeed, Russia’s case is somewhat bolstered, in this respect by allegations that in Chechnya Islamic militants from abroad have been fighting along side the Chechen rebels.

Finally, there is the fact that since Russia is still a major power with a formidable nuclear arsenal, cooperation should pay off not only in geopolitical or strategic terms but also through developing more extensive economic and other ties.

That sets limits on how far to push Putin — or Russia.

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