Incoming Bush Administration
Expectations And Apprehensions

By M. R. Josse

GEORGE W. Bush Jr. will formally be installed as 43rd US President at noon (Washington time) on 20 January 2001 following what has undoubtedly been one of America’s most remarkable and bizarre presidential elections in history.

WHAT TO EXPECT: Given America’s pre-eminent global status and that a foreign policy neophyte now appears at the centre stage of world politics, pundits around the world have begun to advertise their expectations and apprehensions on what the incoming Bush administration in Washington might entail.

Given space constraints, we can take here only a small sampling of the same, beginning with what outgoing US secretary of State, Madelein Albright, has recently pronounced on the matter.

In an interview to AFP Albright urged engagement with China, an expansion of security cooperation in Asia and follow-through on a historic opening with North Korea.

She, however, cautioned that the Bush team’s support of a national missile shield and rejection of a nuclear test ban treaty could prompt India and Pakistan to renew a risky arm race.

During Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to China last month, China and Russia signalled that they would "act together" to rebuff American plans to create a separate anti-ballistic missile system for Asia. Russia considers such would be violative of the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty of 1972.

That is why Russian Ambassador Vladimir V. Ivanon in a recent lecture here emphasized: "All attempts to escape from the Treaty will upset the present strategic balance and will require from Russia to undertake resolute steps to restore the equilibrium."

Since such a US weapons’ system could allow Taiwan to stop some incoming missiles and give the United States, if it does intervene, an edge in weathering a possible Chinese missile strike on US territory, Beijing naturally considers it as being against her strategic interests.

More generally, however, China is disturbed about the way in which Bush and his foreign policy advisers asserted American interests during the electoral campaign. On that short list of concerns is their call for bolstering Taiwan, for stronger alliances with Japan, South Korea, and Australia and others, thereby raising China’s natural anxiety about encirclement.

That apart, there are, of course, the perennial issues of human rights, trade and Chinese weapons sales to regimes that Washington used to call "rouge states" but now describes as "states of concern" including North Korea, Iran, Iraq and Libya.

CONSULTATIONS: However, as international security specialists Yan Xeu-tong of Tsinghua University very rightly pointed out, Bush will have also to consider the benefits of strategic cooperation with China. "Without it, it will be impossible to pressure stability in the Asia-Pacific region."

What must also be noted is that senior members of Bush’s foreign policy advisers, including Lawrence Eagleburger, traveled to Beijing in mid-December specifically to gauge misgivings in the minds of Chinese officials.

Notable, too, is that Chinese President Jiang Zemin, Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan and members of the Bush foreign policy camp have expressed a desire to forge a working relationship. Also revealing is that the Chinese state media recently ran a lengthy portrait of Bush—whom Chinese call "Xiao Bu-shi" or Little Bush—linking the US president-elect closely with his father, who is well liked by the Chinese.

Not surprisingly, Israel has been closely following the transition in Washington. Useful insight is provided in an article in the international Jerusalem Post by Janine Zacharia which, inter alia, states:

"Pro-Israeli activists, Middle Eastern leaders, and nearly everyone else concerned about the fragile situation are waiting anxiously to see who will formulate the new US policy in the region. Bush was scant on policy details during the campaign, promising strong US emotional and military support for Israel, minus the pressure which he accused President Bill Clinton of levying at times on Israeli leaders….

"Some Jewish leaders are worried that many of Bush’s father’s advisers, who were not particularly warm towards Israel, will wield extraordinary influences in the administration."

In India and Pakistan considerable interest has focused, at the time of writing, on who will succeed Karl Inderfurth, US Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia.

One likely candidate is Shirin Tahir-Kheli, a former US ambassador to the UN for special political affairs, a National Security Council director under the Reagan administration, and a Ph. D. degree holder who has many books to her credit, including "India, Pakistan and the United States: Breaking With The Past."

Not long ago, "The News" of Pakistan reported that possibility mentioning that she is someone who "grew up in Pakistan" and is the daughter of famous scientist Dr. Raziuddin Siddiqui.

Not surprisingly, as Ramesh Chandran of Times of India (TOI) reflected: "The optimism—even near jubilation—over her candidature amongst certain Pakistani sources seem to be on par alongside other genuine scenarios that it was under the Republicans that the ‘pro-Pakistan tilt’ occurred, military ties were firmly cemented."

Chandran also points out that "the Bush-Chenney team during the campaign had spoken earnestly about promoting democracy; that (Secretary of State-designate Colin) Powell’s first comments were about being tough and uncom-promising on terrorism and the likes of (Secretary of Defense-designate Donald) Rumsfeld might take a dim view of illegal missile and nuclear transfers."

A TOI story (9 Jan), "If Shirin gets key Bush Govt. post, India has reasons to worry" clearly highlights the expectations and apprehensions linked with the incoming Bush administration.

Tourism Industry’s Woes

By Mohan K.C.

NEPAL may be a unique tourist destination which has asserted itself through its splendours both natural and cultural. Known the world over as the country which boasts of the highest peak in the world and the birthplace of Lord Buddha, the apostle of peace. Kathmandu Valley with the highest concentration of temples and shrines, specially in Kathmandu.

It is just half a century that Nepal opened its door for foreign guests to enter the country. Since then there has been a gradual increase in the number of tourist arrivals, though there have been years in which there has been marked decrease due to internal as well as problems in other parts of the world.

The year that has gone by saw a reversal in the trend. Instead of the decrease in the percent of tourists coming in, there was a negative growth. It does not augur well if this trend is allowed to continue. It was during the Visit Nepal Year 1998 that saw almost 500,000 tourist arrivals. But that has become a thing of the past if the arrival figures for 2000 is studied.

There are many reasons for the sudden drop in tourist arrival last year. The non-operation of Indian Airlines flights to Kathmandu for almost five months in the beginning of the year 2000 was partly responsible for the decrease of arrivals. Moreover, the inability of Royal Nepal Airlines to cater to the demands for air seats, because of the lack of aircraft, also was responsible for fewer tourists arriving.

Political unrest is responsible for tourists feeling insecure. When the question of security can be answered then only tourists would want to visit a country. The frequent bandhs and protest programmes organised by various political parties disrupted the normal life not only in Kathmandu Valley but elsewhere in the country. When there are too many strikes or bandhs it affects the movement of tourists within the country and this is the reason why tourists would want to visit a country where they can enjoy themselves in whatever way they like. That was not possible because negative publicity also made many would be visitors to cancel their plans to visit Nepal.

The last month of 2000 saw many events which could have been avoided. The bandhs that came in a row was an unfortunate event. In such circumstances a major sufferer has been the country’s tourism sector. Tourism contributes much to the country’s economy not only in terms of foreign exchange but also in creating avenues for employment. It has led to economic difficulties for the travel and trade industry.

While one may argue about the tourism products there is ample room for grievances. Banking on the same traditional products is not enough to cater to the demands of every section of the potential Nepal visitors. Though there have been some attempts to create new products, it has not been adequate.

The smaller arrivals has led to cut-throat competition among participants of all the sections of the tourism industry. This means reduced revenue and that affects the development activities of the country. This unhealthy competition has also led many to dub Nepal as a cheap destination. Budget tourists are essential but the country must be able to meet the demands of the discerning tourists.

Whatever may be the reason for the drastic fall in the number of tourists visiting the country it is a matter of grave concern. The figures for 2000, as analysed and compiled by Nepal Tourism Board with the source remaining the Immigration Office, Tribhuvan International Airport, presents a bleak picture. Tourist arrivals dropped by -10.61 per cent in 2000 as compared to 1999. In 1999, 421,188 arrivals by air were recorded while it dipped to 376,503 in 2000. The arrival of Indian tourists dropped by -31.82 percent in 2000 in comparison to 1999. This is plain enough to show that there was a sharp decline in arrivals from India. It was only in October last year that there was some improvement but the later two months again were disappointing.

It seems that tourism products are not only enough to attract visitors. The political climate too should remain conducive. Without the cooperation of all the tourism industry cannot hope to thrive. As tourism benefits reach many, it becomes necessary for all to tap the potentials. If bandhs or protest programmes are organised every now and then, it hinders the development of the tourism sector.

The year 2000 had been a setback for the tourism industry because the arrivals were not in tune with the expected growth. There were many events that were responsible for such a slack year. Tourism sector was almost held to ransom on many fronts. The hoteliers and hotel employees stand off too was unfortunate as it led to many visitors cancelling their plans to visit Nepal.

This year with increase in the number of RNAC flights to more destinations and other airlines too adding Kathmandu on their map it may be hoped that the tourist arrivals may increase. With Nepal Tourism Board carrying out the necessary product development, publicity and familiarisation programmes the tourism industry may receive the much needed shot in the arm.

Luck Works!

By Shreedhar Khanal

ONLY a coward depends on luck me this was my father’s last words to from his deathbed. Everybody was sure that he was dying. My mother had overcome with grief and my young sister was bitterly weeping, I was trying to console her saying there was always luck behind orphans like us. At that very moment my father opened his eyes, slowly caught hold of my hand and whispered. "Only a coward depends on luck son. Look forward and try to do your best."

My father squeezed my hand and passed away. But he threw a current of strength to me. I prepared myself to face the realities of life with courage and put a consoling arm around my sister’s shoulders. Seeing this my mother wiped her eyes with hand and stopped weeping. She stood up and slowly came toward us. She patted me on the shoulder faintly smiling and embraced us. Then she uttered, "Bravo my son! Your father has not made us orphans. He is always behind you urging to move forward. God bless us."

I strived hard against uneven circumstances and completed my education. My mother as well as friends and relatives felt hopeful that I would find prospective job somewhere. I used to start my day going through newspaper ads and end it by applying for different posts in various organizations. My first application for the post of a section officer in a ministry was well received. I was called for a written examination. More than hundred applicants had sat for the examination. Only ten had passed and my name was at the top. Many well-wishers congratulated me in advance. My mother offered one hundred and eight laddus to Ganesh. But it was all in vain. Somebody else was selected in the interview.

This became a recurring phenomenon. I always passed the written examination failed the interview. In some cases it was found out that a candidate who had failed in written examination also was appointed. I was totally puzzled. My friends also were astonished. But they blamed me for it. In their opinion, I must have been very untactful in interviews and must have given correct answers to the interviewers without knowing their leanings. I failed to get job not only in the government but also in semi-government corporations. I did not fail in any examination but did not pass a single interview.

Then I tried to enter some suitable private organizations and I had to visit for some time. As soon as my eyes fell on such ads I applied. I was hopeful this time. But the result turned out to be the same. I came first in written examination and failed in interview. And this led me to think otherwise. No achievement without luck. Then what to do? How to be lucky? Should I go to an astrologer with my horoscope as advised by my mother or consult some wise men? I was in a dilemma. As I was unaware of a wise man in my country. I choose the former and went to a renowned astrologer. He heard me but refused to examine my horoscope. He just closed his eyes and said I was the most unfortunate man in the country. It is not by qualifications but by luck one gets the opportunities particularly in Nepal. For example, the leaders are elected not because of their qualifications but because of their luck. Among them, only the fortunate ones are made ministers. And to be fortunate, you must know the knack of pleasing right personalities. Then only will you never fail in life.

Now the crucial question whatever to follow my late father’s sermon or the present astrologer’s advice arose in my mind. I can easily get a job following the latter. But that will make me an unworthy son of a worthy father. And If I choose to be the worthy son I will not be the fortunate one. I do not know what to do.