Incoming Bush Administration
Expectations And Apprehensions

By M. R. Josse

GEORGE W. Bush Jr. will formally be installed as 43rd US President at noon (Washington time) on 20 January 2001 following what has undoubtedly been one of America’s most remarkable and bizarre presidential elections in history.

WHAT TO EXPECT: Given America’s pre-eminent global status and that a foreign policy neophyte now appears at the centre stage of world politics, pundits around the world have begun to advertise their expectations and apprehensions on what the incoming Bush administration in Washington might entail.

Given space constraints, we can take here only a small sampling of the same, beginning with what outgoing US secretary of State, Madelein Albright, has recently pronounced on the matter.

In an interview to AFP Albright urged engagement with China, an expansion of security cooperation in Asia and follow-through on a historic opening with North Korea.

She, however, cautioned that the Bush team’s support of a national missile shield and rejection of a nuclear test ban treaty could prompt India and Pakistan to renew a risky arm race.

During Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to China last month, China and Russia signalled that they would "act together" to rebuff American plans to create a separate anti-ballistic missile system for Asia. Russia considers such would be violative of the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty of 1972.

That is why Russian Ambassador Vladimir V. Ivanon in a recent lecture here emphasized: "All attempts to escape from the Treaty will upset the present strategic balance and will require from Russia to undertake resolute steps to restore the equilibrium."

Since such a US weapons’ system could allow Taiwan to stop some incoming missiles and give the United States, if it does intervene, an edge in weathering a possible Chinese missile strike on US territory, Beijing naturally considers it as being against her strategic interests.

More generally, however, China is disturbed about the way in which Bush and his foreign policy advisers asserted American interests during the electoral campaign. On that short list of concerns is their call for bolstering Taiwan, for stronger alliances with Japan, South Korea, and Australia and others, thereby raising China’s natural anxiety about encirclement.

That apart, there are, of course, the perennial issues of human rights, trade and Chinese weapons sales to regimes that Washington used to call "rouge states" but now describes as "states of concern" including North Korea, Iran, Iraq and Libya.

CONSULTATIONS: However, as international security specialists Yan Xeu-tong of Tsinghua University very rightly pointed out, Bush will have also to consider the benefits of strategic cooperation with China. "Without it, it will be impossible to pressure stability in the Asia-Pacific region."

What must also be noted is that senior members of Bush’s foreign policy advisers, including Lawrence Eagleburger, traveled to Beijing in mid-December specifically to gauge misgivings in the minds of Chinese officials.

Notable, too, is that Chinese President Jiang Zemin, Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan and members of the Bush foreign policy camp have expressed a desire to forge a working relationship. Also revealing is that the Chinese state media recently ran a lengthy portrait of Bush—whom Chinese call "Xiao Bu-shi" or Little Bush—linking the US president-elect closely with his father, who is well liked by the Chinese.

Not surprisingly, Israel has been closely following the transition in Washington. Useful insight is provided in an article in the international Jerusalem Post by Janine Zacharia which, inter alia, states:

"Pro-Israeli activists, Middle Eastern leaders, and nearly everyone else concerned about the fragile situation are waiting anxiously to see who will formulate the new US policy in the region. Bush was scant on policy details during the campaign, promising strong US emotional and military support for Israel, minus the pressure which he accused President Bill Clinton of levying at times on Israeli leaders….

"Some Jewish leaders are worried that many of Bush’s father’s advisers, who were not particularly warm towards Israel, will wield extraordinary influences in the administration."

In India and Pakistan considerable interest has focused, at the time of writing, on who will succeed Karl Inderfurth, US Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia.

One likely candidate is Shirin Tahir-Kheli, a former US ambassador to the UN for special political affairs, a National Security Council director under the Reagan administration, and a Ph. D. degree holder who has many books to her credit, including "India, Pakistan and the United States: Breaking With The Past."

Not long ago, "The News" of Pakistan reported that possibility mentioning that she is someone who "grew up in Pakistan" and is the daughter of famous scientist Dr. Raziuddin Siddiqui.

Not surprisingly, as Ramesh Chandran of Times of India (TOI) reflected: "The optimism—even near jubilation—over her candidature amongst certain Pakistani sources seem to be on par alongside other genuine scenarios that it was under the Republicans that the ‘pro-Pakistan tilt’ occurred, military ties were firmly cemented."

Chandran also points out that "the Bush-Chenney team during the campaign had spoken earnestly about promoting democracy; that (Secretary of State-designate Colin) Powell’s first comments were about being tough and uncom-promising on terrorism and the likes of (Secretary of Defense-designate Donald) Rumsfeld might take a dim view of illegal missile and nuclear transfers."

A TOI story (9 Jan), "If Shirin gets key Bush Govt. post, India has reasons to worry" clearly highlights the expectations and apprehensions linked with the incoming Bush administration.

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