Ailing Economy
Trustworthy Solution Sought

By Gandhi Raj Kafle

ALL are eager to know, about the actual condition of the present day Nepalese economy. But, the answers are different. Recently published economic statistics do not show anything depressing, Then, is everything all right ? No, not at all; some of the indicators at present are not good. That’s why the country’s economic experts say-if the reform measures are not introduced promptly to restore hopes for avoiding negative impact on various fields of production, the situation in the days to come may develop serious repercussions in the socio-economic development process of the country.

It fact, this argument is not only supported by economic technocrats but the country’s heterogenous group of people, who are genuinely interested to see Nepal prosperous, like businessmen, journalists, industrialists, sociologists, bankers, depositors, managers and workers all echo the same concern,. This growing concern, therefore, prompts one to ask a question-in the Nepalese economy on the brink of danger ? The fresh and relevant socio-economic data have to be analysed to get into it.

The latest Economic Survey of the country published by the Ministry of Finance is available to interpret the government’s observation on it. The publication has recorded a four per cent growth rate for the previous fiscal year in agriculture, which until now is the largest production sector of the country. Similarly, the survey also mentions a growth rate of 6.9 per cent for the non-agriculture sector, which too is wideming remarkabl in the recent times. Combining both the growth rates of agriculture and non-agriculture sectors on average, the government survey manages to target an optimistic growth rate of 5.8 per cent at the end of just concluded fiscal year.

A growth rate of 5.8 per cent in a relatively uncomfortable fiscal year is not bad. In this vein there lies no danger in the Nepalese economy, according to the Economic Survey. But, is the economy exactly in that condition ? One can’t be assured of so the doubt can’t be overruled. In fact, the countrywide apprehensions about it have their logical ground to express the grim reality of the worsening economic performance. Some unusual events too occurred sending the economy in trouble. In this way the economy would have been in no danger if things had taken a smooth course.

The economic performance which is slightly below the national target too can’t make a big difference in the long run. If the economy is in the right track, it would be recovered in a certain time. Even the survey’s estimated target of 5.8 per cent growth for fiscal year 2000-2001 too can be regarded as modest one because the nation can catch the ninth plan target of achieving 6 per cent growth with the slight improvement in the national economy. But, the problem today is that the situation had not been smooth and as a result various production sectors could not accelerate growth rate of output.

But a ray of hope for the ailing economy is that the political situation of the country has taken a new turn, which may be fruitful for accelerating the pace of development in the days to come. The first round of talks for finding a acceptable solution to the burning issues between the teams of government and the Maoists have been concluded. The other agitating opposition political parties including CPN-UML too have been cool now. They are pledging to strengthen government’s hand to solve the present socio-economic problems of the country. All of a sudden a seemingly a cooperative feeling among various rival political entities has emerged. If positive atmosphere precipitates from it, the politics driven Nepalese economy will certainly be in an advantageous position for greater benefit of the people.

But, the question is -will the politics of protest and misunderstanding, which disturbed the mind of potential investors despite all the promises of the free economy for their rational choices and decisions, offer a production friendly atmosphere to boost the confidence of investors again ? Today all the representative organisations of the sectors of industry and commerce are raising questions of security at work places. Unsettled disputes between workers and owners of various industries and factories have hampered production ultimately endangering the long term benefit of both the workers and the owner.

The government companies have been suffering from stagnation due to the lengthy bureaucratic decision making process, sometimes euen dragging the Council of Minister itself into controversy. The past clamour over most of the deals of Royal Nepal Airlines Corporation (RNAC) for leasing or buying the aircraft’s to expand international market of the national flag carrier is an example of performance failure Even today, when there is democracy, most of the corporations are crippled either by indecision or official actions prone to corruption.

The problem, thus, is clear. But, it we talk of solution, the correction measure for it can be found in the upper part of politics because it has the responsibility to control bureaucracy. So, it is a leading part of the process of socio-economic development. That’s why many development experts have now welcomed the government-Maoists talks, which are expected to continue till the process finds out a common solution for addressing issues of the time and it would be also a welcome step for economic success.

Nepal’s current level of production has slightly tumbled down, which can be leveled if corrective measures are adopted in time. But, for it, the politics of confrontation must be ended and there needs the whole concentration of the nation for economic development. The country seems to have moved towards reconciliation, and it will definitely help the Nepalese economy.

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