Population Growth
An Obstacle For Development

By Tanka Raj Niraula

THE task of development for a Least Developed Country (LDC) is big and urgent, and, it is obviously difficult to achieve this job with rapid population growth. The view presented by the classical economist Thomas Robert Malthus was the first on its right to create such pessimism regarding high population growth rate. There is great inter-link between per capita output and population. But the relation between them is negative. In nutshell, the theory of Malthus can be summarized as a race between technical progress and population. In the beginning, technical progress increases production but finally, due to law of diminishing returns, population growth overpowers technical progress and stagnation occurs. This theory is mainly practical for the agricultural output. According to him, agricultural production increases in arithmetic progression whereas population growth tends towards the geometric progression.

For any effect, there remains a cause. The social background of Malthusian theory goes back to the French Revolution. By 1798, many of the evil effects of the industrial revolution were showing themselves. Unemployment, poverty, disease and hungers were already the problems. This was the immediate cause for the Malthus’ pessimistic outlook. The theory is still relevant to the LDCs. Therefore, there is an urgent need to check the population explosion as soon as possible.

Now the world’s population has crossed the barrier of six billion and mostly this population inhabits in the developing world. Then, what will be the economic and social effects on levels of living, national and personal esteem and freedom of choice- that is on development? The increase in population is not simply a problem of numbers but a problem of human welfare too. Some issues regarding the consequences of population growth can be categorized as improving the levels of living of the people, employment opportunities, and supply of food. It will be more difficult especially for the LDCs to provide essential social services including housing, transport, sanitation, health, nutrition and security. It will be very hard in coping with the vast increase in the labour force. Food sufficiency is needed not only to meet the demand of growing population but also to improve nutritional levels to the point where all humans can have an adequate diet.

Many development economists argue against these negative scenarios as well. They are in support of high population growth. The reason behind it is that it stimulates more efforts and output. As due to high population, there will be competition among the labourers, which results in high economic growth because of increase in productivity. They too point to the fact that apart from draught areas, population nowhere appears to have approached the capacity of the land to support it. Whether or not adequate food production is achieved, however, depends a great deal on the government’s making resources available, pursuing appropriate pricing policies, ensuring necessary research, and developing an infrastructure for transport, storage and marketing. But these reasons do not cover the full facet of population growth. Only the Arabian countries like Iraq, Iran etc. are supportive to high population growth, because they lose many of their people on wars.

One thing is unequivocally clear that population growth has adverse effect on development. The most immediate and important aspect to be affected is the per capita income. It is sheer arithmetic, which suggests that with a given growth of National Income, the increase in the population affects unfavourably to the rise in the per capita income. Another aspect of the adversely affected development process is the saving and investment. The capacity to save is reduced. Governments find it difficult to generate surpluses because there is a continuous increase in their expenditure on such items as law and order and other social services. Another harmful consequence of rapid growth in population is attributed in natural resources. Large size of population causes much damage to the availability and the proper use of natural resources. Land, the biggest component of natural resources, as for example, comes under much strain. The land-man ratio worsens. There is sub-division and fragmentation of holdings, making none viable for farming. Due to over-dependence on land for survival, forests begin to be cleared up for agricultural activities. The employment scenario too realizes the negative impact. Labour supply increases at a fast rate. These additions, instead of proving an asset, are in fact liability for the reason that capital per worker will decrease. According to the theory of Demographic Transition, many third world countries are now in the second stage that is stage of low death rate and high birth rate. Nepal too faces the same problems due to large population as contrast of its size to absorb it.

As proved by our national achievement, population growth is a major barrier for development. The basic characteristic of our economy is cited as sluggish growth rate, stagnant agriculture and rapid population growth. Nepal’s economic growth rate is around 3 per cent per annum on average but population growth rate is 2.5 per cent. High population growth rate is resulted in massive unemployment and underemployment. The total population was 23.4 million in 1999 as compared to 14.5 million in 1980. The average unemployment rate seems to be more than 5 per cent while underemployment in the rural areas is reported to be over 40 per cent. The increasing pressure on land for agriculture and habitat to the growing population has resulted in rapid deforestation. In 1964, about 45 per cent of the total area were covered by forests. This area declined to 43 per cent in 1979 and in 1986 it still declined to 37.4 per cent. Recent survey revealed that only 29 per cent of total land are covered by forest in 1998. During the period of three decades, the rate of deforestation estimated to be 1.3 per cent. The vicious circle in the hills generated by population growth, poverty and environmental degradation has also resulted in the exodus of hill population towards the Terai, which is itself constrained by population expansion, limited agricultural land, increasing urbanization and resettlements, degrading natural resources and diminishing prospects of new employment generation.

Lastly, arriving at a pragmatic justification, the high growth of population has done much more harm than the good to the nature and ultimately to mankind since development itself is for the people.

Other Story

• Nepal’s Trade with India