Pakistan Polls
Preparations Amid Turbulance

By EagleEye

ONLY two months remain for parliamentary polls to take place in Pakistan but a host of questions and uncertainties continue to overshadow the impending event. President Pervez Musharraf has placed pre-conditions for the eligibility of candidates seeking to contest. These conditions prevent two former Prime Ministers Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif from contesting in October.

Convicted

Both Bhutto and Sharif were convicted by Pakistani court for wrongdoings when they were in office. While Sharif was in Pakistan when the court indicted him, Bhutto was in exile when the court did the same to her. Since December 2000, Sharif, too, has been living in exile in Saudi Arabia. The manner in which Sharif and his family were allowed to leave Pakistan abruptly in 2000 gave a clear indication that an agreement had been reached between the former premier and Musharraf, who came to power through a military coup he engineered in October 1999.

The Supreme Court allowed Musharraf to remain in power, provided that he held parliamentary polls within three years. Three years were the remaining term of the parliament that Musharraf dissolved as soon he acquired the reins of power. Many things have happened in the last three years, with Musharaf increasingly strengthening his position. Initially, some sections of the Pakistani people openly welcomed the coup. Many people had been fed up by the constant squabbles of the country two major political parties (Pakistan People's Party and Muslim League-N) and their top leaders (Bhutto and Sharif).

Ever since the practice of democratic elections was revived in late 1988, Bhutto and Sharif alternated as the head of government. Both became prime ministers two times each but neither of them was able, rather allowed, to complete a full term. The president was invested with the discretionary powers of dismissing an elected government, dissolving parliament and calling for fresh elections, oblivious to the wishes of any elected government. Each time a prime minister was sacked for "inefficiency and failure to check corruption", the leader of the main opposition of the day promptly welcomed the president's action.

In the last general elections, Sharif's PML-N obtained an overwhelming majority in parliament. On the strength of such a majority, Sharif amended the Constitution and effectively scrapped the president's power to dismiss parliament at his own discretion. There was a section displeased by this particular constitutional change and were biding for their time to strike against the prime minister. The intransigence between the PPP and the PML-N was no secret and various elements contributed to intensifying the differences between the two major parties.

In October 1999 when Sharif announced the dismissal of Musharraf as the army chief when the latter was on a foreign visit, Musharraf engineered a bloodless coup and placed Sharif under detention. Cases were filed against Sharif and his close associates on charges of corruption and misuse of power. This was hardly surprising. Rulers in Pakistan more often than not have records of filing charges against their predecessors.

Bhutto welcomed the change in the seat of power. She might have expected the new regime to withdraw her court cases and create a climate for her return to Pakistan. She even made statements to the effect that her party would consider seriously if Musharraf were to seek its support for being elected the country's president. Islamabad, however, did nothing to create the "appropriate" atmosphere that Bhutto was angling for.

Musharraf from the very start had declared that he would bring the corrupt to book and check corruption. In the first few months, investigations were launched against dozens of politicians who had misused their positions and pocketed huge amounts of money through illegal means. People appreciated the move but the efforts petered out by the time Musharraf completed his first year as president. Corruption in the security forces has been taboo. In fact, corruption in other sectors has also gone ignored.

The slackness in instituting probe into the financial dealings of politicians and other powerful and influential people has been interpreted by Musharraf's critics as a result of opportunism. It is felt that Musharraf raised promises to deal with corruption as a ploy to consolidate his position acquired through a military coup. Once he felt more or less settled, the promise got a back seat. Not that there have been no cases against corrupt people but, given the magnitude of the problem, extremely little has been done.

The situation has led many to believe that the cases against Sharif and the decision to go along with the cases filed by the Sharif government against Bhutto were basically motivated by political factors, i.e. to clip the wings of the two most powerful rivals to Musharraf's position and ambition. Many bigwigs are said to have pledged their loyalty to the new ruler and thus avoided any investigation against them and their financial dealings.

The new poll regulations have effectively prevented Bhutto and Sharif from becoming candidates as the court has convicted them. Sharif recently gave a signal to his brother Shahbaz to head the PML-N in preparation for the forthcoming elections. But Islamabad has indicated that Shahbaz, in Saudi Arabia since the 2000 "exile deal", would not be allowed to return for ten years. Sharif had resigned from the PML-N leadership recently to allow his younger brother to take over but the effort might not bear the result that the whole exercise has sought to secure. In November, Shahbaz's wife and two daughters returned from Saudi Arabia, raising speculation as to whether they planned to stay in the country.
Bhutto gave a blessing to her party members to form a separate political entity for contesting elections in case PPP, under her leadership, is not allowed to field candidates. Nawaz Sharif seems to be more reconciled to the compulsion created by Musharraf. He has denied rumours that he met with Bhutto in July to review the political situation in Pakistan and probe into possibilities for cooperation between their parties. In October, not only national but also provincial elections will be held. The stakes are high for all the key political players.

Reservations

Will the impending elections ensure stability? Much will depend on the manner the elections are conducted. Already, Musharraf's critics have expressed strong reservations over the new regulations and procedures set for the polls. What will be the scenario when leaders like Nawaz Sharif and Bhutto, who dominated the last fourteen years in electoral politics, are not in parliament? Will they remain silent and accept things as they unfold? Or will they ask their supporters to protest and rally against Musharraf ? These are questions that will come up again and again. The answers are likely to start coming slowly only after the October polls.

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