Climate Change
Impact In Nepal

By Dr. Bidur Upadhyaya & Dr. Bina. R. Ghimire

EARTH’S climate is unique as it supports life due to the availability of oxygen in its atmosphere, water on its surface and the occurrence of reasonable range of surface temperature due to the presence of naturally occurring green house gases (water vapour, carbondioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide). Climate, thus, has been playing central role in human societies since long. However, humanity today is playing a dice with its natural environment through a multitude of interactions-injecting trace atmospheric gases like the green house gases, engineering massive land-use change, depleting species in the natural habitat and accumulating stockpiles of nuclear weapons sufficient to destroy human civilization.

Consequences

Even a minimal change in climate can have disastrous consequences for natural eco-system notably drought, desertification, flood and geo-physically-related problems like landslides and soil erosion. Consequently, this variability may pose great risk of different dimension to the successful functioning of human activities related to the sectors such as agriculture and water resources.

About 6000 years ago, the climate in the region was much more humid than today, with vegetation cover resembling that of a modern day African Savanna. Therefore, any change in the climate obviously brings the change in the environmental condition for all the living beings and hence is considered as one of the most serious environmental problems that the world is currently facing.

Recently, scientific evidence is mounting that man-made greenhouse gas emissions have noticeable effect on the earth’s climate. This change is leading to a change in the composition of the earth’s atmosphere. The green house gases, which protect earth against cooling have increased considerably as a result of the burning of fossil fuels, industrial activities and deforestation. Besides, ground level ozone, a green house gas that is generated can have detrimental effects on human health and the environment. Since the industrial times, the concentration of green house gases has increased by more than 50 per cent. Most of this increase has taken place in the last forty years.

Though in the past world experienced various forms of climatic stress resulting in climatic variability, episode of the Sahel drought of 1968-73 alerted the world of the possible consequences of climatic fluctuation and its impact on regional scale on man and his society. In 1988, World Meteorological Organization and UN Environment programme jointly set up the inter-governmental panel on climate change for the assessment of the state of the science of climate change. The UN general assembly meeting in 1990 recognized the importance of global climate change and initiated the process for Intergovernmental Negotiations Committee for a Framework Convention on Climate Change. After a series of negotiations and conferences, involving most of the UN member, a Framework Convention on Climate Change was drafted whose final version was adopted and signed on during the UNCED conference in 1992 in Rio (Brazil) by the world community including Nepal.

Nepal’s contribution to global warming is rather insignificant. In particular, the emission of CO2 and other global warming gases due to the combustion of fossil fuel is even more negligible. Boden et al (1995) estimated an emission of 354,000 tons of CO2 in 1992 caused by combusion of fossil fuel. Similarly the average production of methane from livestock and agricultural was estimated 1.2 million tons in 1997.

Global warming due to climate change means a bleak future. Since all species exist within a complex web of interaction between them and climate, global warming will affect entire plant kingdom in unpredictable ways. The most direct effect will be physiological involving temperature or moisture changes. Some plants will not thrieve or set seed if it is too hot and too dry, as higher temperature will lead to more evaporation increasing likelihood of drought. For example, in southern slope of Kathmandu valley due to rise in temperature in excess of 4000 C evaporation has increased as high as 190 per cent during summer season and consequently 70 per cent of the indigenous vegetation of the valley has been replaced by exotic plants and only xerophyte have been found on the footholds of naked northern slopes.

Some of the effects of this change especially on economy and agriculture have already been observed in Nepal. This fact is reflected by the derecreasing trend of maize yield from 1890 kg/ha in 1975-76 to 1600 kg/ha in 1994.

Annually in Nepal, natural hazard causes loss of 500 lives in average and property worth of several millions. Majority of these losses occur due to hydro-climatic disaster such as torrential rain, floods and soil erosion landslides. Forested hill slopes are now in the process of turning into bare hills due to excessive soil erosion caused by rains. The process would then finally intensify desertification. In such a disaster prone scenario increase of monsoon precipitation may add more catastrophe in the country. There is increasing trend of monsoon precipitation in most of the Teri districts, exceeding over 60 mm per year, have been reported. Twenty-four hour’s extreme precipitation analyses indicate the whole of the Terai, which is food bowl of Nepal, is susceptible to flood. Global climate change model has predicted that rainy season in Nepal will be extended to June from July and winter will be drier.

Landslide are another natural hazard, which occur almost every year in every part of the country in monsoon season. In recent years, infrastructure damage caused by floods and landslides have increased steadily. The cost of rehabilitation has escalated and the economy of the country seriously strained.

Changes in the position of glacier terminus reflect the mass balance conditions of past years, and a general tendency of glacier fluctuation indicates a correponding change in climate. Study of glaciers in Nepal revealed that 66% of observed 494 glaciers had retreated during 1958-92. If these glaciers, which are the sources of our principal rivers (Kosi, Gandaki and Karnali) will keep receding in such a fashion, they might no longer remain perennial. On the other hand, the amount of water, from melting glacier, released into the ocean will have a drastic effect on man and other species due to sea level rise. Besides, the glacier lake out-burst flood is one of the most significant phenomenon affecting current and future development of water resources in the Himalayan region.

Human health may suffer as well due to climate change. A direct impact could be deaths due to heat stress or respiratory diseases, while indirect effects could include increased food and waterborne diseases resulting from changes in rainfall pattern. There could also be an increase in vector borne diseases—such as, malaria and encephalitis-a change in temperature will increase the availability of suitable breeding habits for the vector. Besides, with the anticipated climate, there will be an expansion and shifting of the malaria transmission zone to areas that are hitherto free from malaria. This may bring catastrophe in Nepal as malaria cases are currently increasing which had previously been eliminated with vector control measures. Even marked increased in the incidence of malaria is observed in highland area, which was considered malaria free historically. Since, an increase in temperature and precipitation shorten the reproductive cycle and extrinsic development period of the encephalitis pathogen. Hence, recent outbreak of these diseases in Nepal may happen to be a result of climate change.

Possibilities:

It is clear that environment in Nepal, which is highly vulnerable to natural hazards and disaster, could face serious impact due to climate change. This will make the national efforts towards sustainable development even more difficult. However, commitment made in the UNFCCC calls for extension of the cooperation, from the developed countries to the developing countries for transfer of technologies, practices and process that control, reduce or prevent anthropogenic emissions of GHGs from different sectors. Nepal should utilize this opportunity extending cooperation to the global community in order to minimize the climate change effect and seek some financial support and transfer of technology for the same. It is only through cooperation and joint approach to this problem by every nation to the world global warming can be minimized and mother earth can be saved.

Globalising ‘Goal’ Game

By Krishna Sharma

WILL Pele’s dream come true in this 17th World Cup?

Looking at the results of the ongoing FIFA World Cup 2002 in Korea and Japan, some football pundits say ‘yes’ with confidence while there are others who are simply taken aback surprise by the continuous win of Senegal, an underestimated African country considered outsiders in world soccer.

Twenty years ago, Pele, the legendary soccer hero also known as ‘black pearl of world soccer’, had predicted that an African nation would win the World Cup by 2000. While the 17th World Cup is in progress and established powers of world football are gradually eliminated from the greatest sporting show, all eyes are wide open at Senegal’s stunning wins in the field and the voices ‘Senegal ... Senegal’ are on the rise world over. After the defeat of soccer’s dark horses Nigeria, Cameroon and South Africa in the league round of the final matches, overnight success of Senegal has kept the African sentiment high.

While Senegal appeared on the soccer scene taking on the field, in one of the most beautiful and modern stadiums in South Korea’s Seoul, all favours were for France, the defending champion boasting three of the world’s best strikers. The deciding solitary goal against France by rock solid Senegalese took the World Cup soccer in a newer direction. The African underdogs are continuing their journey to the quarterfinals gaining more public support.

Now that the three former World Cup champions and other powers of world soccer — France, Argentina, Portugal, Sweden and Croatia — could not enter pre and quarterfinals, once-nowhere-in-football nations are emerging one-after-another. Keeping aside a guess game of ‘who wins?’, if we ponder over the strings of wins of hosts South Korea and Japan, Senegal and the United States of America, it could but fairly be said that the strangest and unpredictable matches are again in the offing.

Like anything else, football also knows no boundaries. It is not the game inherited. It does not matter who possesses the ball for how many minutes or hours. It is the game of those who dispatch the most balls into the net and defeat their opponent.

"The football fever now has caught the whole world and the result could be anything," Yadu Baskota, a football fan supporting Senegal this time, says.

More important is the globalisation of football than anything else that one can experience in the on-going World Cup 2002. They were either European or Latin American nations that hosted and notched up the cups until 1994. This is the first time in the 72-year-long journey of the World Cup that its final matches are being held outside Europe or Americas. It was with noblest of intentions that football authorities had awarded the 1994 event to the USA. And this time it was awarded to Asia in a bid to globalise the game. With the promise by FIFA to award the 19th World Cup to Africa, it can be safely said that the hosting of games is going to take its roots outside its traditional heartlands. If Senegal or USA or hosts Korea or Japan reach the finals and win the cup that will be the strongest evidence that football is finally globalised in practice too.