FEATURES NEWS THE RISING NEPAL (DAILY)

By Uttam Maharjan

THE Tenth Plan was adopted on December 17, 2002 by the National Planning Commission (NPC). The plan should have been kicked off from Shrawan of this year, but for various reasons it could not commence on time. Taking the delay in commencement of the plan, it was also proposed that this year be observed as a plan holiday. But at the eleventh hour, it was decided to kickstart the plan. The mid-term evaluation of the Ninth Plan was made in its last year. This caused a delay in preparing the concept paper of the Tenth Plan. So, this is one of the reasons for procrastination in launching the plan.

Thrust

The broad thrust of the Tenth Plan is, no doubt, poverty alleviation. As a matter of fact, poverty alleviation, the main mantra of development planners in Nepal, has been accentuated particularly since the Eighth Plan. The Ninth Plan failed in its goal of poverty alleviation. The plan set a goal of reducing poverty from 42 per cent to 32 per cent by the end of the plan period. But it succeeded in reducing poverty to 38 per cent only. And, it registered an economic growth rate of 3.6 per cent vis-à-vis the target of 6 per cent.

A high economic growth rate is necessary to meet the target of poverty alleviation. To reduce the present state of poverty, an economic growth rate of over 6 per cent is indispensable. The Tenth Plan has set a target of economic growth ranging from 4.3 per cent to 6.2 per cent depencing upon the normalisation of the security situation.

It may be noted, rather ruefully, that the Ninth Plan managed to attain an economic growth rate of 3.6 per cent only against the target of six per cent. The faltering law and order situation was largely to blame for the dismal economic performance. Moreover, the last fiscal year recorded a nagative economic growth of 0.63 per cent, which was the lowest in two decades. Previously, it was estimated at 0.8 per cent. Before this, the economic growth was negative in the fiscal year 2039/40.

The odds are now heavily stacked against the economic condition of the country. The existing economic indicators also do not show a positive posture. The major culprit responsible for the dreary economic indicators is, no doubt, the disturbance of the peace. Now, the service sector is in the dumps, exports are dropping, tourism business is in the doldrums and home industries are becoming sick. The service sector has hit a snag for the last two years.

Economic growth is a measure of prosperity. A UN study shows that a one per cent reduction in income leads to a 0.3 per cent rise in poverty. If we are to believe this, poverty must have increased by 2 per cent to reach 40 per cent during the last fiscal year, although the level of poverty was put at 38 per cent at the end of the Ninth Plan. On the other hand, unofficial sources claim that poverty hovers over 50 per cent.

The Tenth Plan aims at achieving an agricultural growth of 4.1 per cent on the normal side and 2.8 per cent on the lower side. The Ninth Plan could achieve 3.3 per cent agricultural growth against the target of four per cent. On the non-agricultural front, the plan could achieve only 3.9 per cent growth. The Tenth Plan aims at achieving 7.5 per cent on the normal side and 5.2 per cent on the lower side.
The Tenth Plan, which was given finishing touches by the previous Deuba government, has been modified in view of the adverse economic conditions. An additional clause entitled the poor state of economic growth, development and peace has been added to the plan, along with slight modifications in other sectors. The clause has stressed sound coordination between security and development with an eye to the prevailing security situation. It has also accentuated a pro-poor plan, result-oriented economic management and mainstreaming of underprivileged, downtrodden and Dalit communities into national development by enhancing their social access. Besides, the clause has provided for ensuring income-generating programmes economically and promptly, rehabilitating violence-stricken people and reconstructing damaged physical infrastructures.

The Ninth Plan seemed to be ambitious and so most of the targets remained unfulfilled. With this in mind, the Tenth Plan has been made more realistic. As a result, such features as popular participation, prioritisation of development projects, the midterm expenditure framework, performance indicators, credible and regular monitoring and flexibility in strategies have been included in the plan.
As a matter of fact, the previous plans lacked strong monitoring mechanisms. So, the Tenth Plan has provided for monitoring the performance of development projects so that correctives can be taken on time to preclude the plan from going haywire.

The Tenth Plan has also set some social goals. Prominent among them are to reduce the infant mortality rate to 45 per thousand, to reduce the maternal mortality rate to there per thousand, to raise the female literacy rate to 65 per cent, to increase the enrolment rate to 90 per cent, to raise the life expectancy to 62 years of age, to provide drinking water for 85 per cent of the people and to decrease the reproduction rate to 3.5.

Imperative

In view of the present economic odds, the road ahead is really bumpy. We are now living amid economic woes. In such a situation, it is imperative to implement the Tenth Plan in earnest so that the desired goals can be met and economic prosperity can be ensured. For this, cooperation from all sectors is a must.

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