FEATURES NEWS THE RISING NEPAL (DAILY)

By Ritu Raj Subedi

THE world is in 'awe and shock' as it is helplessly watching the war in Iraq, which started more than a week ago despite attempts by the United Nations to avert it. The UN arms inspectors were active in their task of finding if Iraq possessed biological and other weapons of mass destruction. Countries other than the US and Britain wanted to give the inspectors more time to do their job. Had the US waited until inspectors could come up with their final results, the war would not have begun as soon as it did. The US, without bothering to listen to what the UN had to say, decided to go ahead and attacked Iraq.

Role

Although the role of the UN has been overshadowed at the moment, its role cannot be minimised to tackle the post war situation and revive peace in the Persian Gulf.

As such, no war brings happiness to people and it can hardly be justified. Whatever the causes behind waging the war, it is ruthless and only invites disasters to a large section of humanity.
There are anti-war waves across the world. But this has least bothered the White House think tanks. They are firm in their resolve to bring down Iraqi president Saddam Hussein. Their logic for war may be strong. But its consequences may never be good.

There are many interpretations of this war. President George Bush's agenda, as reported in the media, are to destroy chemical and biological weapons, to overthrow present Iraqi regime and to establish democratic system of governance in that oil rich Gulf country. Moreover, Bush saw an Al Qaeda nexus in Bagadad. Even after achieving success in Afghanistan, Bush is not satisfied with his war on terrorism. So he considered the strike on Iraq as strategically vital in his bid against global terrorism.

Freedom, democracy and Iraqi people are recurrent themes in the war rhetoric of Bush. Bush's democratic agenda may be right. But many have questioned the means he applied to attain the goals.
At the same time there is no dearth of critics to interpret this as 'War for Oil.' Some harsh critics of the Bush administration say that Bush wants to grab the global oil market in the post-Iraq war.
One cannot compare the military budget of the US with that of Iraq. The recent US military budget was $400 billion while Iraq spent only $1.4 billion. On this ground Bush may claim his victory. But he will not overcome mistrust of many people on his administration. Bush can silence one Saddam. But ills and revenges generated by the war may spread to the nook and corner of the globe. These can give birth to more Saddams and Al Qaedas, which the US thinks are a threat to global peace and stability. It seems that post-war tentacles will not give American and British regimes to live quietly.
As Bush hinted, the war can be protracted for months. That means more lives lost and more crises triggered. This calculation might be based on the Iraqis' long experiences and tactics on war. The coalition forces must be aware that Iraqis have more than 25 years of experience in separate wars. They know how to prolong war and to give fitting reply to their enemies. Now they are attacking the coalition ground troops in guerrilla styles. They can prove the White House defence strategy wrong. The US may face humiliation as Russians had faced in Grozny while fighting Chechen rebels, who had compelled Russian forces to resort to air bombardment, which saw big loss of life and property.
On the other hand, the US has both types of experiences of wars. The US succeeded in chasing the Iraqis troops from Kuwait. The US has the most sophisticated weapons, which Iraq lack, to ensure its victory in Iraq. However, the Americans were badly humiliated and defeated during the Vietnam War and failed to topple Castro by military assistance.

Now the coalition has focused on the ground battle so as to minimise the human casualties.
Whether war is won or lost, it will have far-reaching impacts on the global politics. This war has dealt a blow to the United Nations. The danger is that it will be defunct. Its role may be limited to only humanitarian cause. Deep rift emerged in the EU. Perhaps the post war era may see a multi-polar world.

The war can even affect the US Arab allies such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia, which could be divided in their positions on the war on Iraq.

The way the US dealt with the Iraqi regime now has angered many of its former coalition partners. France and Russia have blamed the US of breaking the international law despite the US claim that it launched the war as per the mandate of the UN Resolution.

Daunting Task

It seems Bush will face a daunting task in reconstructing Iraq. So he has requested the Congress for the swift passage of the $72 billion budget to tackle the situation.

Look at the budget of this war. The US and the UK have announced to bear $90 billion for this war. Had this huge amount of money been utilised to fight hunger and poverty in African and Asian region, millions of impoverished people would have brightened their faces. It could be great help in serving the humanitarian cause.

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