Outlook for 2001

How optimist is the business community about the situation in the beginning of the year 2001 that is just two months away?

Better agricultural crops, but worsened security situation and as belligerent trade unions. These are going to be some of the features of the beginning days of the year 2001, as business community leaders have forecast about the situation two months from now. Participating in a monthly opinion poll conducted by Business Age, the business owners and managers also viewed that the power supply situation and attitude of the bureaucracy will also remain unchanged despite the much talked about improvements in developing infrastructure for one and better motivation through hefty increase in the civil servants’ salary in case of the other.

About 50% of the respondents hope that the agricultural harvests this year will be better than that of the last year – an expectation if turns out to be true (and the indications so far point out that it is going to be so), the industrial sector will get the much needed boost. As it has been believed, every one percent growth in agricultural GDP will induce 1.5% growth in non-agricultural GDP, thus boosting the overall economic growth. But the early indications are also causing fears, because the farmers are suffering a decline in prices of their products, mainly paddy.

Despite much publicized efforts for talks with Maoists to resolve the insurgency, nothing meaningful has been done so far. Therefore, about 50% of the respondents have feared that the security situation is likely to worsen further during the coming two months. Another 38% think that it is likely to remain the same as it is now. Such fear has prompted the business community to ask for a special security force to look after industrial security.

About the trade union movement, which perhaps another equally important threat to industrial security as believed by many people, a big majority of the business leaders think that it will remain as it is now – neither more belligerent nor more pragmatic.

Though over 60 MW of hydro-electricity has been added to the national grid after the last winter, majority of the respondents fear that the power supply situation will remain the same in the coming winter as it was in the last winter. That means, there will be load – shedding as usual, though it is likely to be less frequent and shorter in duration. Perhaps, the demand for power will be higher due to both reasons of increased prices of petroleum fuel and natural growth in energy demand.

Whatever the other aspects of the environment may be, the business optimism would be higher if the bureaucracy is helpful, proactive and positive. And that was one of the expectations while heavy increase was effected in the salary of the civil servants from the beginning of the current fiscal year. However, the respondents of the poll viewed that the attitude of the bureaucracy is not changing in spite of the heavy salary increase. So the outlook for the beginning of the year 2001 is not so promising, if the views of the business community leaders are any guide.

2. What is more likely to become of the security situation by the end of the year 2000?

3. How is the trade union movement going to be in your opinion by the end of the year 2000?

4. How improved will be the power supply situation during the coming winter when compared to the last winter?

5. How changing do you find the country’s bureaucracy these days in response to the suddenly increased salary of the bureaucrats?