By A Correspondent

Nepali travel trade will continue to see tourists thanks to wannabe visitors and the international carriers.

Around the black cloud hovering above the national travel industry, there is a silver lining. A recent research by the Nepal Tourism Board shows that the fall out of the September 11 terrorist attacks in the US might not be so severe as expected by the travel trade.

"The analysis shows that the situation is not so scary," said an NTB official engaged in the research. "It looks like the impact of the attacks and the threat of the US retaliation against Afghanistan is quite minimal."

What backs such optimism is the continuity of the arrival of tourists from western markets. The travel trade panicked after the terrorist attacks in the US and the American Government’s threat to fight back Afghanistan. Immediately after the incident, travel agents said they were receiving increasing number of cancellations from their clients in the western market.

The already tumbling tourism business looked like it was once again going to be in a big soup. The last nine months this year have seen a decrease of more than three percent in third country (other than India) tourist arrivals. Last month alone saw the decline by more than 20 percent.

Most of the third country markets of the national travel trade is located in the west.

As if that were not enough, the arrival of Indian tourists dropped by more than 20 percent in the last nine months this year. With that bleak scenario as the background, the peak season that started this month did not appear much promising.

But, things are not becoming worse from bad, according to the travel trade pundits. "Interestingly, tourists are continuing to come," said members of Nepal Association of Travel Agents (NATA).

And it is not only the tourists. Bolstered by the visitors’ continued interest to arrive here, most of the international airlines have decided to carry on their flights to and from Kathmandu even in case of the US attacks against the Talibans in Afghanistan.

Qatar Airways, Transavia, Austrian Air and Aeroflot have decided to continue their incoming flights. The only aircraft to pull out in the event of war, would be Gulf Air. "We will be forced to stop our flights if the US attacks Afghanistan since we do not have any other viable routes," said Bhola Thapa, General Sales Agent of Gulf Air that brought in nearly 11,000 tourists here last year.

Normally, the airbus of Gulf Air, that operates in this route four times a week, uses the aerospace of Pakistan and Iran to reach here. "In case of war, there is no way we can fly that route."

According to Thapa, the only other alternative route identified for the incoming Gulf Air flights so far is via Trivendrum in India. "But this route is too expensive for us to operate."

Other airlines flying in from the west, however, have different idea: Use other routes even if they may cost a little bit more money. Arjun Gang, Regional Manager of Qatar Airways, said that his head office has confirmed the continuity of the incoming flights. But, he would not reveal the new air route. "That will remain secret for some time."

Among all the carriers flying in from the west, Qatar Air tops the list in terms of passenger carriage. Last year, the airline brought in more than 22,000 passengers marking almost six percent increase on the 1999 record.

Transavia, that has two incoming flights in a week, has decided to fly down to Bombay first in case it has to divert its route due to the US attacks against Afghanistan. "We will continue our flights even if it takes some extra money," said Subodh Rana, of Marco Polo Travels, Transavia’s General Sales Agent in Kathmandu.

The Dutch Airline, in normal situation, flies in from Amsterdam via Sarjah and Pakistan.

Austrian Airline, with its two incoming flights, will continue its operation to Kathmandu using the Russian aerospace. "We will use the air route from above Russia in case of the war," said Suman Malla of Victoria Travels, the GSA of Austrian Air in Kathmandu.

In any case, all the international airlines flying in from the east, west and south will ultimately have to use the Indian sky, according to Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) officials.

"If India allows them to fly even in case of war, there should not be any problem for any of these airlines to come in using the unusual routes," said Chiniyaman Shakya, Deputy Chief Air Traffic Controller at CAAN.

The navigation rules require any international aircraft arriving here from the west to come from above New Delhi while those coming from the east have to fly above Kolkata’s sky in India. Those flying in from the south use the sky of another Indian city Varanasi.

The western market consists of more than 30 percent of the total tourists arrivals in the country. What’s more, this is the market from where the national travel trade receives upper class tourists. Around 460,000 tourists arrived here last year — down by around 10 percent compared to the 1999 figures.

Already reeling under the dwindling number of visitors, the national travel trade has come under new threats (now actual, ed.) emanating from the American attacks on Afghanistan in the aftermath of the attacks in New York and Washington.

The US has been warning of attacking Afghanistan for not handing it over Osama bin Laden, who, the American Government believes, is the prime suspect in the latest terrorist attacks in its land.

The value of International airlines flying in from the west could never have been more significant. The reason: It was very recently that Royal Nepal Airlines Corporation pulled out of the European routes — the most lucrative market for the Nepalese travel trade.

The national flag carrier used to bring in at least 6,000 tourists during the peak season. Last August, when it decided to cancel its operation in the European sector beginning September last month, more than 5,000 visitors had already bought tickets to fly in between October and December.

According to RNAC officials, these wannabe visitors will be rerouted through different airlines coming in. Meaning, the international airlines coming in from the west would be doing that. And this is where the decision of the majority of airlines from the west to fly in even at uncertain time like this has come as a crucial rescue for the national travel trade.

In the survey carried out by Wanderlust Publications, a UK based prestigious travel magazine, collecting responses from 1600 travellers who had visited 180 countries, 557 cities since January 2000, with 342 airlines using 500 tour operators, Nepal scored 96.1%. New Zealand was ranked first with the score 97.1%. The findings were reported in the September 2001 issue of the magazine.

Meanwhile, Annapurna Trail of Nepal is voted as one of the best 12 walks in the world by Modern Maturity, America’s largest circulating travel magazine, in its September-October issue.

Similarly, Temple Tiger Jungle Lodge of Chitwan has been awarded the first prize of Tourism of Tomorrow Award-2001 by the British Airways. The annual award is given to a project for its contribution to sustainable tourism. This is the second time this award is presented to a Nepali organization. In 1992, the Annapurna Conservation Area Project had received the same honour.

Among the other 141 projects from 59 countries from the world over considered for the award this year were Scottish Seabird Centre, UK, Bush and Beyond Guided Trekking, New Zealand, Nusantra Diving Centre, Indonesia, Great Texas Coastal Birding Trail, USA and Danube-Drava National Park, Hungary, according to a press release of Temple Tiger.

Though these recognitions do not help change Nepal’s image as adventure destination, it is hoped that if these are used effectively in Nepal’s international marketing, it will help arrest the declining trend in tourist arrival in Nepal. And that is the main immediate concern of the industry.

As Nepal Tourism Board has reported, tourist arrival in September 2001 was 29.17% less than in the same month last year. The fall in the arrivals despite improvement in the law and order situation in the country is attributed to the fear among tourists from the September 11 attack in USA by terrorists using aeroplanes as guided missiles. In this situation, Nepal’s hope is in tourists from China, which has declared Nepal as one of the tourist destinations for its nationals. Though the formal agreement for the operationalizations of the arrangement is yet to be signed between the two countries, Nepal Rastra Bank has already started preparations to make Chinese currency (Yuan) convertible with Nepali currency thus making it possible for the Chinese to pay their bills in Nepal in Chinese currency.

It is said that about 10 million Chinese go abroad as tourists. Singapore is trying to receive one million Chinese tourists. If Nepal is able to receive only 1% of the potential, it will get a tremendous boost in its currently sagging tourism industry.