Political

Current Political Crisis: A SWOT Analysis

by Dr. Krishna Raj Regmi

The key players who have greater roles in the direct escalation of the Maoist problem and the present political crisis in the country are mainly three: the king assisted by royalists, the parliamentary parties and the Maoists themselves. None of the players has contributed much for the resolution of the problem. Rather they are all responsible in intensifying the problem by taking a rigid stand and adding fuel to the fire. This paper tries to highlight the outcomes of an analysis of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) of these key players.

The King Assisted by Royalists

The Constitution of Nepal has defined the king as the constitutional monarch regarded as the symbol of national unity and respect. After the collapse of the democratic Government, the king assumed all the executive powers of the state invoking article 127 of the constitution and formed a caretaker Government twice, on his own accord and mandated them with some royal directives, ignoring the recommendations of major political parties. This has created a tug of war between the king and the democratic forces with differences of opinion about the 1990 Constitution of Nepal and the legitimacy of the royal moves and the Government itself. Though the king has expressed his strong adherence and commitments to the constitutional monarchy and multi-party system, the activities of the palace and the Government have failed to assure the democratic forces. The king seems to have been involved in politics by addressing the public on his own and accepting civil receptions and thus becoming a target of hostile criticism. The palace and its 'lobbies' seem to be interested to introduce active monarchy in the multi-party system. They are not prepared to accept the constituent assembly election, and look prepared to crush the Maoist insurgency with arms and military support from USA and India.

Weaknesses:

#  Lack of confidence and understanding with major political parties

#  Suspicion of international communities in the restoration of democracy

#  Poor public image of royalists due to their past involvement in Panchayati system

#  Less support from the intellectual community

Strengths:

#  Grip in the Royal Nepalese Army as its Supreme Commander

#  Strong support from the followers of Panchayati system

#  Support from Hindu fanatics and religious groups

#  Relatives of royal family occupying key positions in public and social organizations

#  Experience in divide and rule policy

Opportunities:

#  Constitutional monarch regarded a symbol of national unity and respect

#  Peoples' faith in the institution of monarchy based on historical perspectives

#  Support from ethnic minorities, some business communities and small parties

#  Obligatory support from high ranking officials and bureaucrats

Threats:

• Peoples' popular movement sponsored by political parties

• People's war launched by Maoists who have set up People's Government 

• Political pressures from India and international community

• Possibility of external interference in country's internal affairs 

The Major Democratic Forces

The major political parties consider the royal move of October 4, 2002 as unconstitutional and undemocratic as the king assumed all executive powers by sacking the elected Government. The palace had advantage of the differing views that the major political parties had. The public was also disenchanted with the political parties due to their irresponsible activities that led the country to corruption, ill governance, and bankruptcy. They are held responsible for intensifying Maoist problem through their lack of vision and timely action. They are isolated from the Government and are not made party to any peace talks that the post October 4, 2002 governments held with Maoists. Now they have launched a massive people's movement against the royal move in order to, what they call, restore the achievements of 1990 people's popular movement. 

Weaknesses:

• Ordinary people's unequivocal faith on the political parties has significantly eroded

• Small parties are not extending support to the movements of big political parties against the royal moves 

• Charged with past corruption, ill-governance and abuse of power and authority

• Public disenchantment due to the irresponsible activities of these parties while in power

• Isolated from the Government-Maoist dialogue

Strengths:

• Still command strong public support as these parties are regarded as the sole representatives of the people

• Recognition and moral support from international communities

• Nationwide organization and network

• Long historical background in the democratic movements

• People's movement assisted by sister organizations

Opportunities:

• Nationwide people's support from grass-roots level

• Faith in constitutional monarchy and multi-party system

• Linkage with international political parties and organizations

• Support from civil societies, human rights bodies and professional organizations

Threats:

• Efforts of the Royalists to introduce active monarchy in the country

• Maoists are opposing the 1990 constitution as well as the demands of major political parties

• Possibility of palace-Maoists compromise isolating major political parties

• Maoists seeking new model of democracy with constituent assembly election 

The Maoists

Though Maoists announced cease-fire and came to the negotiating table twice, the dialogue collapsed both the time due to lack of confidence between the negotiating parties. Maoist side has indicated their intent for early logical conclusion to the problem so as to restore greater democratic rights of the people. They also indicated that they had a strategic balance of strengths with the Government and that there was a possible danger to the very sovereignty of the country due to its geopolitical sensitiveness. Though the concept of a new model of multi-party democracy with proportional representation (PR) as demanded by Maoists was proposed also by the Government promising some changes in the system and the constitution, they could not come to the agreement on the issue of election to the constituent assembly. As a result of rigid stands among the negotiating parties, the Government-Maoist dialogue collapsed and Maoists have resorted to arms again. There is again an atmosphere of fear, violence and insecurity in the country.

Weaknesses:

• Lack of support from major political parties and majority of the people

• Negative image in the public due to continued record of violence and excesses

• Terrorist charges labeled by the Government and international community

• Lack of public faith due to their unilateral withdrawal from the peace talks

• Not clear about future programs beyond constituent assembly election

Strengths:

• Estimated 5,000 - 10,000 strong People's army and militias, though they are armed mainly with mediocre type of weapons

• Formation of People's Government at illaka, district, and central level all over the country

• Strong hold in the illakas and villages though not in district headquarters and cities

• Support from the poor and suppressed class of people particularly from the ethnic minorities

Opportunities:

• Recognized as NCP (Maoist) party at national level

• Public fear and pseudo-support due to terrorist tactics

• People, political parties and Government in favor of ceasefire and dialogue at any time

Threats:

• Suspicion from major political parties to the Maoist idea of constituent assembly election 

• Government not sincerely positive about Maoists' ceasefire and demands

• Ruling side and the palace look interested to impose active monarchy

• Royal Nepal Army being equipped with more modern and sophisticated weapons

• International pacts and commitments to eliminate any kind of terrorism

This analysis indicates that weaknesses of one will be the strengths of another with threats around. Hence none of the parties will win. Rather all will lose if they allow collisions and confrontations to continue. Peace will prevail if the three major key players do rise above their narrow interest and work sincerely to bring the conflict to a logical conclusion taking advantage of all the available opportunities. The issue of constituent assembly election seems to be the point of deadlock. Since such an election is also a democratic exercise, some analysts wonder why democratic political forces should hesitate to face it.

(Dr. Regmi is TA Team Consultant, NISP/World Bank)

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