MILLENNIUM BUG

Will It Bite?

Although the country has made late attempts to immune its computer system from Y2K bugs, it could make little progress within a year. Officials claim that most of the computer systems in Nepal are immune to the millennium bug. Is it enough to assure the people? What alternative system does Nepal have in case of crisis of millennium bug remains to be seen

By KESHAB POUDEL

One week after the claims of becoming millennium bug compliant on its equipments, the announcement of Nepal Telecommunications Corporation (NTC) of opening a desk to serve customers has sent a shock wave showing vulnerability of Y2K problems in different areas of national life.

The panic that arose after the announcement is understandable as no body is certain what effect and impact the millennium bug will make at different sectors. Although a large number of common people including officials are still unaware what millennium bug is all about, all of them have to encounter some kind of problems caused by the millennium bug.

Is millennium bug only a bane? Or is it a boon for the country like Nepal? Experts argue that there are many boons of Y2K as it will help to upgrade the computer system and information technology. The bane of the Y2K is that it may cause some damage in already exsting information system.

According to the initial assessment, it is said to have cost Nepal 350 million rupees to cope with Y2K in the organized sectors like aviation, tele communication, health, energy and banking sectors.

It is yet to asses the cost of recovery in private sectors including industries. Most of Nepal's industrial production systems like in Hetauda Cement Factory, Udayapur Cement Factory, Janakpur Cigarette Factory, Birgunj Sugar Mills are manual based and Y2K problems rarely seem to affect them.

"Our production system is manual based. Some of our computers used in various line of production are Y2K compliant," said Tek Bahadur Thapa, general manager of Dairy Development Corporation.

As manually operated, the bigger cement plants also do not have to worry. "Our system is manually operated. Even assessment of some of our computers shows that they are immune towards Y2K," said Tej Kanta Jha, general manager of Udayapur Cement Factory. "Although some of our equipments are latest and computerized, they have semi-automatic provisions."

As there are insignificant impacts in the industrial sectors, the government is now launching its programs focussing on health, banking, aviation, tele communication and energy. "Nepal's industries are not computerized and are manual based," said Dr. Shankar Prasad Sharma, member of National Planning Commission.

Nepal has very little chances of disruption in industrial sector due to the Y2K. Thus, industrialists seem not to be panickly to take hasty efforts to asses the situation. "Our production system will not be affected by millennium bug," said Pradeep Kumar Shrestha, president of Federation of Nepalese Chamber of Commerce and Industries.

One cannot deny the possible threat to personal computers. Many personal computers may be shut down and deny access to their users and many may crash due to bite of bug. As the possible scenario of millennium bug seems to be much darker than it was usually expected to be, the common people are yet to realize its consequences.

NTC is not alone to worry. Even the US government seems to be cautious about the problem. "As a consequence of the so-called Y2K bug, on or about January 1, 2000, some automated systems throughout the world may experience problems, including unpredictable system malfunctions. The Department of State is preparing its embassies and consulates to assist American citizens in emergency circumstances. This ability may be hampered by local Y2K disruptions. In order for the United States to prepare for world-wide contingencies for American citizens, public immigrant visa service at the United States Embassy in Kathmandu will be suspended during the first two weeks of 2000," says press release of Embassy of the United States Kathmandu.

When one of the well prepared national institutions like NTC and foreign embassies felt threatened by Y2K, the vulnerability of other institutions like health, police and industries that are yet to identify problems is a matter of great concern.

As the millennium is knocking at the door, the officials seem to be desperate to avert the millennium bug problem. Millennium viruses, experts argue, may appear over the next few months and they may go undetected, until after the millennium date changes.

The extent of damage depends on the complexity of IT system, the extent and type of Embedded system and length of supply chain. Non-compliance does not imply that there is a big problem. While both the hardware and software are at risk, it is the software that is likely to cause greater problems experts warn.

Recent upgrades of standard software are likely to be alright but others which were assembled many years ago may have problems. In health sector, almost all instruments may face problems due to non-compliant to Y2K.

Upgrading existing hardware and software is the best way to avoid the millennium bug. This is one of the reasons many institutions are making efforts to replace the older version of software and hardware. "Replacing operating systems and application of programs with recent millennium ready versions is inevitable," said Dr.Sharma.

Embedded system is the name given to any system which has an out of view microchip embedded in it. In today's world these could be in any machine from a simple watch to entire computer network, including fax machines, fire control system, CT scan machines etc.

Several of the microchips are date-reliant and offer the threat of creating disruptions at different levels. The disruption will be related to the failure of software to process and interpret data accurately experts said.

Experts have divided risk area into three status. High Risk groups include those who have not assessed the risk posed by the millennium bug and do not have a plan to deal with it.

Medium risk: Those who are examining and testing their system and expect to be ready by the end of 1999. Low risk countries are those who have addressed all foreseen problems and are compliant.

According to the international standard, Nepal lies in the medium risk status as it has tested all its systems and has expected to be ready by the end of 1999.

From Royal Nepal Airlines to Civil Aviation Authority, banking sector and Nepal Electricity Authority all are busy preparing for it. Can the last ditch against Y2K save the country?

"Certainly, we are now more or less Y2K compliant," said Dr.Shankar Prasad Sharma. "We don't have to worry as all efforts have been made to minimize the Y2K risk."

At a time when even the developed countries are expressing their worries over the Y2K bug, Nepal cannot claim as a safe haven against the millennium bug on the ground that there is very little use of sophisticated equipments.

"Due to low level of automation, Nepal has some kind of advantage. Nepal does not need a strong level and size of effort and preparation for the rollover but what it required is careful and detailed assessment and monitoring of Y2K," said Atma Ram Ghimire, member of Y2K National Committee.

In such a situation, we cannot claim total immunity. "If the bug disrupts the supply system in India, it will affect all our supply system and economy," said an expert. We must prepare an alternative plan."

The millennium bug will actually affect the date-reliant microchips located within embedded systems in equipment like photocopying machines, air-conditioning, security systems, bar codes and manufacturing machinery which are used throughout our building offices and production areas.

One cannot ignore the Y2K as a simple problem of aviation, communication, energy and health sectors. It is also the problem that may affect even common man.

Although television, refrigerators, washing machines and other domestic appliances will carry on working normally, a small number of domestic appliances which have year date functions may confuse some timing devices. 

What Is Embedded System

Embedded systems are microchips that carry out programmed instructions to control or monitor equipments and offer a cost effective way of controlling support systems. They are used in many applications, throughout commerce and industry. Since the use of a clock or calendar is integral to the functioning of some embedded systems, they are vulnerable to the effect of the Millennium Bug.

Vulnerable software: The operating system enables application programs to run and is normally included with the computer at the time of purchase.

One way to immunize from the Y2K is to upgrade existing hardware and software, by replacing operating systems and application program with latest, millennium ready versions.

According to the study, cameras, TV sets, Washing machines and even small watches may face problems. Any machine from a simple watch to an entire computer network, including fax machines, fire control systems, CT scan machines etc are based on microchips. Several of these microchips are date reliant and offer the threat of creating disruption at different levels and disruption will be related to the failure of software to process and interpret data accurately say experts.

The problems of Y2K is small in Nepal like her preparedness. The assessment report shows that there is no need to panic. Because of low level of computerization, Nepal's industrial plants will function normally.

Most of the aircraft flying in the domestic sectors are manual based. The aircrafts like Avro HS-748, Twin Otter and other aircrafts need not worry.

Despite one year long efforts, health sector is still vulnerable to Y2K as equipments and machines of central and regional hospitals are not immunized yet. According to the assessment report of UNDP, the health sector might be vulnerable as there are still a lot to be done.

The question arises: how vulnerable Nepal's personal computer system is? While special task force formed to tackle the Y2K problem has already assured that the Y2K is not a problem of major concern, there is no substantial evidence to believe that the system may function properly.

It is estimated that there are more than one million computers used in Nepal but no body knows how many of them are compliant to Y2K.

Some argue that the Y2K may be non-event in the country like Nepal as power, banking, telecommunication and aviation sectors have already announced to be Y2K resistant.

The problem with the millennium bug is that even a person who does not own a computer has to face the problem. Every one is vulnerable of the Y2K effects because embedded systems are part of our daily life. 

What Is Y2K?

Y2K issue is a man-created crisis where computers and electronic systems will not recognize the year 2000. They will instead read the date as 1900 or some other. It was created in an effort to maximize date storage space by representing year dates with only two digits ('99) instead of four (1999). The distortion could get activated any time a computer uses a date in the year 2000 and may not necessarily wait till the midnight of December 31,1999. Operations involving sorting, comparing, indexing and computations to encounter errors can either crash the system or cause applications to operate incorrectly. Y2K non-compliant systems using future dates e.g. credit, debit and bank cards, long term order and supply systems are already refusing to accept new date instructions.

"We are almost all immune from the Y2K problem and bug will not make any trouble for us," said Dr.Sharma, member of National Planning Commission who is heading high level body against Y2K problem (see interview).

But on January 1, 2,000, it's possible that some key computer system in Nepal's infrastructure may go haywire. The electricity may go out and the banking system may change the amount of money in the respective account.

Predicting just where Y2K failures will occur, and how severe they will be, is nearly impossible. Most consultants have based their readiness assessment on surveys, but government and other institutions have been loathed to report on their computer-repair efforts.

Some even point out many Y2K related problems won't even become apparent for weeks or even months into the new year. Informed speculation is about the best you can do.

After the circulation of information, there is panick everywhere. But some of the major newspapers have not prepared for the Y2K bug.

Whatever number of users, the disruption will be felt most severely in the countries where the preparedness level is very low.

The specialists have made substantial progress but not a total breakthrough in understanding the exact nature of the Millennium Bug's behavior pattern.

Y2K is a problem related to the software, hardware, network and embedded systems. There is need to assess in all these elements before saying the Y2K is OK.

Nepal has started officially addressing the Y2K issue only in January 1999 and the speed was generated only after the first national conference at the end of January 1999.

First national conference was held in january 31 ,1999, with support from UNDP, U.S Embassy, U.K. and Computer Association of Nepal.

The conference identified four sectors that will be affected by Y2K. Assessment work actually began in April 1999. The key national sector suggested by preliminary study were banking, Telecommunications, civil aviation, Electricity, government finance, Nepal police headquarters and Royal Nepal Airlines.

The committee was set up viewing the study conducted by Gartner Group in 1998 which placed Nepal in scary group and revealed that over 66 percent computers would be problematic.

Even after the final preparedness, things would not be looking better either, particularly in the health sector where software fixes and testing have lagged, and money to update computers has been scarce.

Now time is running out and health sector and other areas are rushing to save the trouble. With repair jobs and software testing incomplete, many are hurrying to put contingency plans in place, in the event that their networks really do come crashing.

Although the use of computer in different organizations is very insignificant, there is still possibility of risk of Y2K failures in the health and energy sectors.

"We used to have load shedding. So even the disruption of supply will not have major effects in the production sector," said a senior official.

Predicting just how and where Y2K failures will occur, and how severe they will be is nearly impossible. Although there are computer works done in hospitals and local governments, the country's financial and trading networks were ready for Y2K action.