NATIONAL 2 (Spotlight Weekly)]

Koirala In Controversy

Prime Minister's call to activate National Defence Council (NDC) sparks a new round of controversy

By KESHAB POUDEL

Coming to power by declaring to introduce law and order , Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala's three sensitive statements regarding the security issues land him in no-win situation.

Although Koirala announced a number of measures to beef up security in the country, they have backfired with both his opponents and sympathizers coming against him.

Prime Minister Koirala angered the army by announcing to activate the National Defence Council (NDC) and piqued intelligence services and police department by labelling them ineffective.

He further lost backing from police when he principally agreed to set up a para-military force.

Every one is demanding sound law and order situation. After Koirala hinted the changes, all forces are now turning against him. From police force to Royal Nepalese Army and from intelligence to political parties, Koirala has not found any buyer for his arguments.

"Due to ineffectiveness of intelligence agencies like National Investigation Department, police faces difficulties to contain Maoists."

"Even army intelligence and police intelligence are not able to come up with adequate reports. The government will investigate what these agencies are doing right now," said Koirala.

"I will activate the National Defence Council to maintain law and order."

Koirala's statement heated up national politics as the main opposition party and human right groups are opposing it. "We will oppose the mobilization of army to contain Maoists," said Krishna Pahadi, a human right activist.

Despite opposition from different groups, Prime Minister Koirala has repeated several times in the last two weeks that he would activate the NDC. More importantly, he has ignored another equally important issue of beefing up intelligence services.

"An effective intelligence could be strong instrument to contain internal disturbance than mobilizing security force," said an expert. "Nepal's intelligence, which was virtually dismantled by Yog Prasad Upadhyaya in 1990, needs a revamping."

The failure of intelligence department, security experts see, is responsible for heavy casualties in the operation. The cases like in Dailekh or Rukum could have been averted had there been a strong intelligence network.

In his first official appearance on 7th April, Prime Minister Koirala categorically pointed out his three priorities for maintaining law and order: improving efficiency of intelligence agency, setting up a para-military force and activating NDC.

Although as Prime Minister, he can exercise his rights why he chose to go public with such sensitive issue is a matter of concern.

Although Maoist problem is five years old now, the intensity of the insurgency is still at low level. The firearms used by the insurgents is still less modern than that of police and there is no reports of them using sophisticated weapons.

Some see mobilization of army as necessary to contain Maoists. "The present police force which is essentially a civilian guard is neither trained nor equipped or prepared to combat major guerrilla operations which is happening at the present stage of insurgency. Even the creation of para military force or armed police will take some time. Under these circumstances, whole security perception of the county would require a thorough reappraisal, especially because the insurgency has international links," said former Foreign Minister Dr. Ram Sharan Mahat.

"This is not an ordinary situation. Major casualties of the police force as well as civilians are taking place practically every day. Therefore, I am not one of those who would oppose the use of army in any form. This is a major problem which will require a comprehensive strategy to address and the strategy should be comprehensive enough to be effective, and therefore would require total national efforts. The menace of Maoist insurgency should not be allowed to spread further," said Dr. Mahat.

Others disagree. "At a time when Maoist problem is so complex, the mobilization of army alone will not be sufficient to control it," said Pahadi, a human rights activist.

Despite dealing with such a serious matter, Prime Minister Koirala has not bothered to think about repercussions of his verbal comments.

Loaded with a report of a committee reports prepared by a team headed by a former Home Secretary Khem Raj Regmi, Prime Minister Koirala has been talking about the formation of para military force.

The problem with Prime Minister Koirala is that he has been talking too many things at the same time. He has to first set his targets right, whether he wants to mobilize army first or to develop effective intelligence apparatus.

The killing of police in the day to day fight and falling into guerrilla's ambush are stark reminders of the weak intelligence.

Although there are security committees in every districts, which are supposed to gather information for police, they are unable to do so. The district security committee consists of police, army, personnel of National Investigation Department and Chief District Officer.

If Prime Minister Koirala sees inefficiency in intelligence department, how can he believe that army mobilization may contain Maoist insurgency?

Experiences in other countries have shown that army operation is not the ultimate solution for such insurgency. More the use of army, more complications may appear. The incidents in Sri Lanka and Kashmir have already demonstrated failure of army operation to contain insurgency.

As Koirala himself led insurgency in 1970s, he may be more knowledgeable about how difficult it is to contain insurgency problems in Nepal.

Both economically and politically, army mobilization cannot be a solution for insurgency and it will only add fuel to the fire.

"Insurgency needs to be dealt with a multiple approach including dialogue, economic packages, increasing efficiency of intelligence network and policing," said a former officer of Royal Nepalese Army on condition of anonymity.

After the revolution of 1950, Nepal has already faced different forms of insurgency. Even Panchayat system faced four phases of insurgencies including two carried out by Congress and one each by CPN-ML and Ram Raja Prasad Singh before the system was overthrown.

Unlike the present one, all of those insurgencies were limited and were unable to penetrate deep inside the mid-hill districts. Okhaldhunga was the only district where Congress-led insurgents were active during 1970s.

"The government was able to check the infiltrators then because of strong intelligence networking," said a former senior army staff. "Strategically the areas like Kamala river in Sindhuli, Narayani and Babai areas are very vulnerable zones."

Due to strong intelligence vigil, all previous insurgencies faded away in a very short period of time.

Security experts argue that the on-going Maoist insurgency is also expanding through these strategically vulnerable points.

According to them, the intensity of insurgency in Rukum, Rolpa, Pyuthan, Salyan, Baglung, Dolpa, Bardiya, Kalikot in the mid-west, Gorkha, Lamjung and Tanahu in west and Sindhuli, Kavre, Sidhupalchowk, Okhaldhunga, Dolakha and Ramechhap in the central region is an indication how they are penetrating.

"I know who is behind recent insurgency and their underground leaders," thundered Koirala last week without elaborating further.

Even after five years of Maoist insurgency and increasing intensity in the mid-hill districts of the country, no government has presented their strategy to deal with it.

Since Prime Minister Koirala has already kicked the dust, it is now necessary to let all the dust settle down before making any decision that can have a far-reaching consequence for the security of the country.