NATIONAL 2 -[GORKHA PENSIONS (Spotlight Weekly)]

Red Signals?

As it enters its fifth year the Maoist rebellion may have reached a turning point

BY BHAGIRATH YOGI

-- The ruling Nepali Congress party President and the former Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala announces a national campaign against Maoist violence, after a whirlwind tour of Maoist-affected areas in western Nepal.

-- The high level government committee on Maoist problem headed by former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba swings into action, holding meetings with opposition parties and human rights activists to resolve the problem.

-- General Secretary of the underground Maoist Communist Party Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda) appeals for a mass movement while "preserving the achievements of the 1990 people's movement."

As it approaches its fifth year, the Maoist insurgency appears to be reaching a turning point. What turn the four-year old movement is going to take is not clear yet, but indications are that the coming year may be decisive for the future of the "People's War".

Having claimed 1100 precious lives, destroyed tens of millions of rupees worth national properties of one of the world's poorest countries, and disturbed peace and tranquillity in one of the most peaceful countries on earth, the Maoist insurgency stands at a crossroads.

Deuba : Over burdened

Beginning from a remote hill district in western Nepal in February, 1996, sound of the Maoist guns is now heard in one third of the country. Confined to the hills at the start, it has now spread to the Terai plains as well.

Brushed aside as a local level law and order problem initially, the Maoist violence has now become number one national problem, drawing even international attention.

These are no mean achievements for a small communist outfit which compared poorly with some of their bigger counterparts before the start of the movement. That they are being looked upon as a potent force must have made the leaders of the Maoist Communist Party quite happy.

But even in its fifth year the Maoist insurgency has failed to garner wide popular support. Instead, the people are getting alienated in increasing numbers. "This does not bode well for the future of the insurgency," said a veteran communist leader who did not want to be named. "No communist movement has succeeded without popular participation."

Incidentally, for the first time in four years the government and the ruling party are getting serious in tackling the problem. The Nepali Congress President Girija Prasad Koirala has taken the battle to the Maoistís front by risking his own life and travelling to the Maoist-hit sensitive areas. He has announced mobilisation of the people against Maoist violence. Koirala is also hopeful of getting co-operation of other parties.

On the other hand, the Deuba committee has swung into action, holding meetings with opposition parties and the human rights activists.

It is clear that the government and the ruling Nepali Congress are seeking to isolate the Maoists. They seem to be succeeding too. Although opposition parties and the human rights organisations differ with the government on the way it is dealing with the Maoist problem, there is unanimity in condemning the Maoist activities.

As it gets down to the business of tackling the Maoist problem seriously, there are chances that the government will try to give the impression that it is listening to what the opposition parties are saying.

Already, senior Nepali Congress leaders including Koirala and Deuba have started saying that the police can be asked to lay down their arms if the Maoists did the same. But they have warned that the government will come down heavily on the Maoists if the rebels continued what the authorities call terrorist activities.

This carrot and stick strategy is seemingly working to the advantage of the government. While opposition parties and the intelligentsia have outright rejected the Maoist leader Prachanda's call for "a joint front against fascist Congress regime", they have joined the government chorus that the Maoists are terrorists.

Given such situation which developed on the eve of the fifth anniversary of the Maoist insurgency, it is likely that the Maoist rebels will be forced to go on defensive and even agree for talks not on theirs, but on the government's terms.

Though in an attempt to demonstrate their strength, the rebels may intensify their activities in the immediate future and carry out some symbolic operation during the anniversary week starting on February 13 to gain propaganda mileage, already there are signs that the rebels have been forced into defensive.

The recent statement by Prachanda has for the first time in four years "acknowledged" the achievement of the 1990 people's movement. Prachanda has also called for preserving these achievements which his party has hitherto called a sham. Two major achievements of the 1990 movement are multi party parliamentary democracy and constitutional monarchy. This sharply contrasts with the declared goal of the Maoist insurgency: abolish multi party democracy and constitutional monarchy and establish a communist republic.

Said a political columnist, "the writing is on the wall for the Maoist rebels. Successive governments may have erred in dealing with the problem. Indications are that as the rebels continue to embark on what they call a long march to the republican communist regime in the world's only Hindu kingdom, they are more likely to be greeted with red, not green, street signals. Is it time for a halt? Perhaps.