NATIONAL 2 -[GORKHA PENSIONS (Spotlight Weekly)]

Calculative Move

After releasing Tek Nath Rijal, Bhutan has once again prepared the ground to play the refugee issue the way it wants

By A CORRESPONDENT

Foreign Ministry is at the height of optimism. Even before Bhutan could confirm the date for the next round of talks with Nepal on Bhutanese refugee issue, the ministry has declared that the one decade old crisis will be solved within one month.

But how will that happen remains largely unexplained. Of course, there is the light at the end of the tunnel since the Bhutanese Government has, at least, agreed to continue dialogues following the inconclusive eighth round of talks held last September. Before that, it was in 1996 when the seventh round of talks had taken place after which there was virtually an impasse between the two sides for almost three years.

Refugees in a camp : No more democratic fighters ?

Even as the two Himalayan Kingdoms have agreed to once again sit across the table, doubts loom large whether the festering refugee issue will be resolved anytime soon. And no other than the signals emitted by the Dragon Kingdom suggest that. Take the case of the recent release of Bhutanese Human Rights leader Teknath Rijal.

The ace rated Bhutanese leader's release comes at a time when Nepal and Bhutan have more or less agreed on the verification of refugees who were categorized into four groups in 1993 -- Bonafide Bhutanese who have been forcefully evicted, Bhutanese who have emigrated, Non-Bhutanese people, and Bhutanese who have committed criminal acts.

The understanding to verify the more than 100,000 refugees in seven camps in eastern Nepal took place during the eighth round of talks held last year. But, with a big question still unanswered: How to begin the verification process?

Almost ten years after it resorted to ethnic cleansing -- that resulted into the eviction of the Lhotsampas (southern Bhutanese) -- Bhutan has a reason to show "friendly" gestures to Nepal of late.

Nepalese delegation, in a way, has convinced the Bhutanese authorities that the country is not concerned about the political change in the Druk-Yul. "We told them, even during the latest round of talks, that all we want is the repatriation of refugees," says a highly placed official at the Foreign Ministry.

In the late 80's and early 90's, Bhutan had activated its ethnic cleansing policy retaliating the democratic movement actively participated by the Lhotsampas.

Having spent almost a decade in exile, the weary and frustrated refugees have almost stopped talking about fighting for democracy back home. This also has to do with the divided Bhutanese refugees' groups in exile. While some groups believe that Bhutan should have democracy first, others believe that repatriation of the refugees should be their priority.

At such a point of time, knowledgeable sources say, if Rijal succeeds to unify the divided refugees to unitedly fight for democratic movement in their country, Bhutan may back out from the dialogues with Nepal thus delaying the process of refugees' repatriation.

Interestingly, Rijal, even if freed from jail, has not been allowed to leave Bhutan. "With the fear that he may unify the divided Bhutanese refugees, the Bhutanese Government may not permit Rijal go out of Bhutan," says Rakesh Chhetri, a noted Bhutanese analyst. "Perhaps Rijal's release is only a Bhutanese propaganda to show the international community that it is liberalizing its policy."

And this is not the first time Bhutan has resorted to such gimmicks. Last year, in yet another calculative move, Bhutanese King Jigme Singye Wangchuk introduced changes in his country's political system. According to the new arrangement, a member of his cabinet will head the government for certain time before handing over the authority to another cabinet-member who will be chosen by the king himself.

The move had been of great help for the Dragon Kingdom to eyewash the international community. In one hand it had succeeded to make the world believe that it stands for change while at the same time it was once again successful to buy time to prolong the refugee issue.

This time around, after releasing Rijal, Bhutan has been able to place a double edged sword against Nepal. If the released activist begins reunification of refugees for the democratic movement in Bhutan, the Dragon Kingdom will, no doubt, backtrack from the talks with Nepal.

And if Rijal does not do that, Bhutan still will have a reason to win the international applause -- for having granted freedom to a Human Rights fighter.

And that can, perhaps, become yet another "excuse" for the Dragon Kingdom to prolong the refugee issue once again -- if it chooses to do so.