NATIONAL 2 (Spotlight Weekly)]

Has The Ice Been Broken?

The informal talks between DPM Poudel and a Maoist representative breaks the ground for negotiations. Will the talks proceed?

By BHAGIRATH YOGI

When the state-owned Radio Nepal announced that Deputy Prime Minister Ram Chandra Poudel met a rebel leader on the eve of Tihar festival, people had sigh of relief thinking that the nearly five-year-old Maoist rebellion might come to an end, albeit temporarily for now. But as things unfold it looked easier said than done.

In a statement issued after the talks, general secretary of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), Comrade Prachanda, said his party would hold talks with the government only if the latter created a 'minimum environment' for the talks. There would be no more informal talks as suggested by Mr. Poudel, he said. Comrade Prachanda confirmed that his party's central committee member, Rabindra Shrestha, had met Poudel at some undisclosed location within the Kathmandu valley on October 27.

"Our party is ready to move forward the process of dialogue to end the current crisis in the country," he said. " If the government is serious about talks, then it must make public the whereabouts of Dinesh Sharma and other (Maoist) party members and make concrete efforts for their release soon after the end of Tihar festival," the statement said. The four-day-long Tihar festival concluded on Sunday.

Poudel (left) and Prachanda : Searching for truce

The statement also asked the government to appoint a formal negotiator with the rebels. Comrade Prachanda also inquired about the status of the Deuba Commission headed by former Prime Minister Sheer Bahadur Deuba whose term expired early this month. DPM Poudel, on his part, said the government was willing to hold more informal talks before sitting on the table of formal negotiations. Maoists have said they would continue to hold discussions with other political parties and groups too.

Human Rights activist and leftist leader Padma Ratna Tuladhar, who brokered the peace deal, is still optimistic. "This is a very positive development," said Tuladhar. "We are awaiting the government's response by Tuesday (Oct. 31)."

Sources close to the government say officials are really in an awkward position regarding the Maoists' demand to make the whereabouts of their members and leaders public. When a delegation of nine-left parties put up similar demands to then Prime Minister K. P. Bhattarai early this year, the latter reported said "They (the rebel leaders) have already been killed." Moreover, this would also put the Police Department, alleged for series of atrocities in the Maoist-affected areas, in tight spot.

Whatever be the compulsions on either side, the wide coverage given to informal talks between the government and rebels by the local and international media have raised expectations among people. "Either party that steps back from the negotiating table will be a loser in terms of people's confidence," says Krishna Hachhethu, a political scientist at the Tribhuvan University's Center for Nepal and Asian Studies (CNAS). "One of the positive things is that the government hasn't put any pre-conditions for dialogue. This also indicates the government's commitment to take the issue toward a logical conclusion."

Pressed from international opinion and dissent from within the ruling party, the G. P. Koirala government has opened two fronts in order to deal with the Maoist rebellion. While it has tried to strengthen coordination among security agencies including the Royal Nepal Army-for the first time since the restoration of democracy a decade ago-- it has also opened doors for dialogue with the rebels. The political assessment of the ruling Nepali Congress-that the Maoists are the terrorists killing innocent persons and ambushing the police forces -has compelled the government to take tough posture against the rebels.

"The ruling party's position vis a vis the Maoist movement may have created some technical difficulty for the government. But the informal talks between the two sides has created an environment to overcome such obstacles," said Hachhethu. "The proposed dialogue should, hence, be taken as a negotiation between the government and a political force."

As soon as the government started deploying army personnel in the headquarters of the Maoist-affected districts, rebels started softening their stand. Earlier, they had said they would not hold talks with the 'Girija faction' of the ruling party. During with their talks with Deuba, a rival to Koirala-they put up similar demadns. As the term of the Deuba committee expired last month, Maoists opted for informal talks with the government through Tuladhar.

After making devastating attacks at the headquarters of Dolpa and in Lamjung district in late September this year, Maoist rebels want to retain their strength and avoid possible offensive by the government forces, especially the army, say analysts. Sources said international organizations supporting the Maoist war have also advised them to go for `cease fire.'

Both international and domestic environment may have pushed both the government and rebels to shed their inhibitions and come to the table of negotiations. But whether they will really be able to make any. breakthrough-to end the violence that has already claimed lives of more than 1500 people since February 1996-remains to be seen.