NATIONAL 2 (Spotlight Weekly)]

A Proxy War

Is it the end of the road for former prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba? If not, what prompted him to launch an offensive against Koirala?

By KESHAB POUDEL

When former prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba delivered his fiery speech at Janakpurdham last week accusing Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala of imposing nepotism in the party, his posture was reduced from a widely accepted leader to a factional chieftain.

Deuba is following to the details the ways of his current mentor, former prime minister Krishna Prasad Bhattarai, who has demonstrated an adeptness in uniting all anti-Koirala elements under him.

The shift in Deuba's stand, who adopted a largely conciliatory approach in his two-decade-long political career, is understandable: he wants to link his identity with Bhattarai's group.

For his critics, Deuba's latest political pronouncements have reduced him to merely a protege of Bhattarai, but Deuba sees good prospects there.

Although Deuba has emerged as the hope of the anti-Koirala and pro-Bhattarai groups, he will have to go long way to shed his previous posture.

As long as Koirala is active, it is almost certain that Deuba cannot defeat him in the party elections despite the backing of strong factions in the party. His strategy to personally attack Koirala will not benefit him.

Deuba feared the growing influence of party general secretary Sushil Koirala and thought this was the appropriate time to strike. "As this juncture, Deuba is unbeatable as leader of the party," said MP Prakash Man Singh, son of Ganesh Man Singh.

Deuba, too, seems determined to prove that he represents the anti-Koirala camp. "I want to contest elections in the party to end nepotism and the hegemony of particular family," Deuba thundered at a mass meeting in Janakpurdham. "I want to transform Congress from a party of a particular family to the party of the common people."

Few believe Deuba can win the elections by starting a hate campaign against Koirala, whose support is crucial to any Congress worker.

"Sher Bahadur dai is playing with fire. His strategy will burn him more than his recent mentors," said a close colleague from the far western region.

With Bhattarai's backing, Deuba is putting his political career at stake, analysts say. If Deuba continues with his fierce attacks, he risks reducing himself from a likely natural successor to a distant competitor.

"It will be a shame for the party to choose Deuba, who set all kinds of record in corruption and unethical practices, as its leader," says former deputy prime minister Shailaja Acharya, another candidate for the party presidency. "If Deuba wins the elections, Congress will turn into a party of the corrupt and the mafia."

Despite all the outbursts of his opponents, Deuba has scored some points in the fierce fighting within the party. One major achievement is that Deuba has left two of his main rivals in party, Acharya and deputy prime minister Ram Chandra Poudel, on the wayside.

While Acharya is still in the running, Poudel has faded into oblivion, at least in this contest.

Deuba's switch of loyalty and his tirades against Koirala began just after the collapse of his coalition government in 1996, for which he blamed the party president more than the opposition parties in parliament. Since then, Deuba has made continuous efforts to plot against Koirala and has sought to unite all anti-Koirala groups for the purpose.

With Bhattarai's blessings, Deuba, who is still regarded as a strong second-generation Congress leader, also contested the elections for the parliamentary party leadership eight months ago, when he was defeated by Koirala.

After the elections, Deuba opened a separate office at Baneshwor and bagan moves to demolish the Koirala camp. When former minister Khum Bahadur Khadka was sacked, Deuba found a heavyweight in his campaign. Bhattarai, who is in a search of an alliance to hit back at Koirala for unseating him, too, finds the Deuba-Khadka combine is the best option.

"If Deuba continues to follow a confrontational line with Koirala, he will have to face a loss from which he may not be able to recover," said a Congress insider. "He must understand that he will not gain politically by criticizing Girijababu at every available opportunity."

As long as Koirala is active in the party, few believe anyone can challenge his leadership. Even party workers in the field see him as a leader who can guarantee their physical safety amid growing political violence.

"Deuba should realize that his strategy is misguided before it is too late," said a political commentator. The consequences of Deuba's latest attacks on Koirala may become clearer as the party convention approaches.

Koirala contributed a lot to push Deuba ahead in the leadership race. It was Koirala who solidly backed Deuba in his effort to become prime minister. If Koirala had remained neutral, Deuba would have lost the election for the parliamentary party leadership in 1994.

After the first general elections in 1991, Koirala gave Deuba the most powerful Home Ministry, which advanced his position leadership ladder.

The misunderstanding between Koirala and Deuba started after Deuba was elected prime minister in 1995. Deuba saw Koirala as the No. 1 threat to his survival in office. In the last general convention of Congress, Deuba backed Koirala and was himself elected a member from the far western region.

Today Deuba feels threatened by the wider Koirala family --specifically by Shailaja Acharya and Sushil Koirala, both of whom are in the race for the party leadership. This is why Deuba seems ready to ally himself any Koirala foe.

Koirala, who has been active in the Congress for the last 53 years and has spent his adult lifetime to build the Congress organization, does not have a strong challenger in the party.

After the restoration of multiparty democracy, Congress has developed a culture of infighting where rival camps have used seething discontent to advance their prospects.

The speeches and activities of Deuba show that he is leading a team of anarchists who want to take him far away from prime minister Koirala.

Deuba's Insiders

There is a growing view in the Congress that former prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba does not take his own decisions and every action of his is prompted by a coterie which guides him through the political jungle. Although Deuba's old-day colleagues are gradually alienating from him, five newcomers reign in his innermost circle:

Pradeep Giri: The erstwhile anti-Koirala of Siraha is leading the pact at present, although he lost the last parliamentary elections is nowhere in the party hierarchy. "If you cannot meet Deuba, then meeting Giri is the second-best thing," is the general buzzword in the Deuba circle. As a Bhattarai loyalist, Giri has an independent axis with Deuba, meeting him almost every day to advise him on party matters. It is no secret in the Deuba camp that Giri's aim is to take revenge against Koirala though Deuba.

Bijaya Kumar Gacchedar: The rise of J.P. Ananda Gupta and Sujata Koirala has gradually pushed Gacchedar into anti-Koirala camp. Gacchedar is spending a lot of money in favor of Deuba. Although Gacchedar's image is not untarnished, this does not matter to Deuba. His plan to install Deuba as prime minister may have failed last year, causing Deuba and his followers much embarrassment. But in the loyalty test to Deuba, he is far ahead of other colleagues such as Khum Bahadur Khadka.

Khum Bahadur Khadka: Deuba still does not trust him fully, but he needs his backing to clip Prime Minister Koirala's wings. Although Khadka challenged Deuba in the parliamentary party election in 1994, Khadka has no option other than to go with Deuba and another former arch-rival, Pradeep Giri.

Bimlendra Nidhi: The son of former Congress general secretary Mahendra Narayan Nidhi, Bimlendra is Deuba's trump card from Terai Nidhi managed Deuba's recent visit to Janakpur where Deuba announced his candidature. Known as a die-hard member of the anti-Koirala camp, former minister Nidhi's future lies in the success of Deuba.

Deep Kumar Upadhyaya: Although he maintains a low profile, former MP Upadhyaya is one of the key strategists of Deuba. He shuttles between Thapathali (Deuba's residence) and Bhainsepati (Bhattarai's residence) frequently.