COVER STORY (Spotlight Weekly)

PRIME MINISTER KOIRALA
Standing At The Crossroads

Despite all-round pressure from opposition parties and dissidence within the Nepali Congress, Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala appears confident that his rivals would eventually have to compromise. Even after 45 days of disruption in parliament and a major Maoist offensive in the mid-west, Koirala shows little sign of weakness

By KESHAB POUDEL

Even as all opposition leaders and Nepali Congress rebels continue pressing for the resignation of Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala and the CPN-UML and other communist parties declared a street agitation, Koirala shows no sign of weakness.

Along with the disruption of parliament, the Maoist rebels mounted a major attack in the mid-western region killing more than 35 police personnel on Monday.

PM Koirala (right ) with Nepal : Defiant against opposition

In the first year of his fourth stint as prime minister, Koirala has shown positive as well as negative sides. Although he replaced his rival Krishna Prasad Bhattarai, charging him with failing to restore law and order and to fulfill the aspirations of the people, Koirala faces a far worse situation than his predecessor's.

In recent months, Koirala has seen both favorable and hostile situations within the party and outside, but nothing has been able to diminish his role.

He proved himself as a man committed to internal democracy when Koirala became the first Congress member to secure all the positions by contesting elections. He defeated his student, Sher Bahadur Deuba, in the elections to the parliamentary party and party presidentship.

The existing conditions prove that Koirala is the only leader who is prepared to stand behind the rules of the game and is committed to upholding the rule of law.

"I don't know whether the main opposition is harming Koirala or is pushing Koirala as a democratic leader by proving themselves as undemocratic," said a political analyst. "The agitation of opposition parties will further boost Koirala's image as a democratic leader."

For his part, Koirala has shown all kinds of flexibility while the opposition turns more irresponsible and arrogant. Koirala has already declared that he will resign if the Commission of Investigation of Abuse of Authority (CIAA) indicates his involvement in the Lauda Air scam.

"All the opposition actions are well planned to cordon Koirala and to weaken his patience. Unlike his party colleague Bhattarai, Koirala will sacrifice everything and accept all terms to teach the opposition a lesson," said a political analyst.

When Koirala succeeded in establishing his position in the party and parliament, the main opposition parties, along with his party rivals, launched another crusade against him. In the last leg of his political career, Koirala is facing all-round attack from different political force, including his long-time colleagues.

Thanks to the displeasure of powerful western donor countries over the UML unconstitutional agitation and other influential external forces, Prime Minister Koirala seems to be in a confident mood.

The situation is hostile with many decisions coming against him, but Koirala finds no time to talk about nonsense issues.

Koirala was elected prime minister replacing his old colleague Krishna Prasad Bhattarai last year. Though Koirala opted for a path of compromise with his opponents in the party and outside, no one seriously responded to his overtures.

Koirala has visited the residence of main opposition party leader Madhav Kumar Nepal and RPP leader Surya Bahadur Thapa to work out a solution and sought the cooperation of Bhattarai. Nobody responded to his peaceful efforts. The more he visits the houses of opposition and ruling party colleagues, the more complicated his problems turned out to be.

Strangely, political parties are trying to isolate him from mainstream politics. Even within his family, Koirala promoted his nephew Prakash Koirala instead of supporting his only daughter Sujata. Other powerful members of the family are not happy with that decision.

Diehard supporters like J.P. Ananda, Khum Bahadur Khadka and Bijaya Kumar Gacchedar joined the opposition camp, but Koirala's position was strengthened.

Even after threatening to call mid-term polls and form a national government, his partymen, who always have a record of betrayal, do have not shown the guts to replace him. Over the last year, Koirala has shown that he is a full-time political worker and nothing can change his position soon.

"Girijababu has no alternative in the party. The Nepali Congress cannot meet the challenges posed by the opposition without Girijababu," said Suresh Malla, minister of state for Works and Physical Planning, a staunch Koirala loyalist.

Prime Minister Koirala seems to rejuvenated by the fact that he still commands majority support in parliament as well as in the party. Although Koirala has threatened to call the mid-term elections and form a national government, his party MPs, who are desperately opposing the elections, have not shown the courage to desert him.

The CPN-UML, which is alleged to have been involved in its own scandal while leasing a South-China Airlines aircraft, has declared a nation-wide agitation demanding the resignation of Koirala.

Instead of weakening his power base, it seems that agitation launched by the CPN-UML and other opposition parties is further strengthening Koirala's position.

Opposition leaders reject the argument that Koirala remains strong and confident. "I have more than four decades of political association with Prime Minister Koirala, but I have never seen him in a weaker position. He is weak in the party and outside," said chief whip of the CPN-UML Bharat Mohan Adhikary. "Every day the events are going against Koirala. The latest killing of more than 40 police personnel in Rukumkot is major setback for Prime Minister. One of his loyal supporter, Minister of Agriculture J.P. Ananda Gupta resigned following disputes over the Space Time Network, the Supreme Court challenged his dismissal order of Dr. Tilak Rawal, governor of Nepal Rastra Bank, Defence Minister Mahesh Acharya forwarded his resignation and Commission of Investigation of Abuse of Authority asked to take action against Minister of Local Development Govinda Raj Joshi. If you see all these symptoms, the time is against Koirala." (See box)

Even after the attacks from all quarters, the situation shows that Koirala is a necessary evil for the Congress party as well as other forces. Even in such a weak position, no one wants to change the leadership. Bhattarai and Deuba are harping on anti-Koirala statement to irritate him.

Opposition parties are also constantly demanding Koirala's resignation knowing well that he would not resign under pressure. Instead, Koirala will compromise with anyone to deal blow to his opponents.

In the first one month of parliament's winter session, Koirala was really in trouble when he faced one humiliation after another. Despite his willingness to bring all opponents in his fold, no one sided with him.

He tried to convince CPN-UML leaders and other opposition leaders but no one listened to him. Koirala's opponents stalled the house for such a long time and dissidents within his party failed to lend a helping hand to the premier.

Koirala is said to be planning a nationwide tour to address mass meetings to counter the move of the main opposition party. He is also mulling an address to the nation on radio and TV.

Girijababu knows how to tackle the main opposition and other communists as he himself has long experience working in the opposition as an insurgent and organizing street agitation, says an analyst.

Unlike his party rival Bhattarai, Koirala may easily be influenced as he does not consider the results when he sees trouble all around him.

Like in his first tenure, Koirala is totally isolated by the main opposition communist party. Then, they called him a traitor and anti-national and burnt more than a hundred of effigies, accusing him of selling out on Tanakpur. (Interestingly, Surya Nath Upadhyaya was member-secretary of the Water and Energy Commission that finalized the Tanakpur agreement. Today Upadhyaya heads the CIAA that is probing the Lauda Air deal.)

When the main opposition party was in power, it proposed the integrated Mahakali Treaty with India, which was ratified by two-third majority of the parliament. A party that accused Koirala of selling out a river went on to ratify an accord that incorporated all the tributaries of Mahakali.

In his first three-and-a-half-year term, Koirala had a long stick to discipline members, but now even his own party colleagues do not respect him because his stick was taken away by the Supreme Court, which restricted the prime minister's prerogative to dissolve parliament in 1995.

Koirala seems to be fully cognizant of the current challenges, including the ongoing opposition agitation, the Maoist problem and internal dissension in the Nepali Congress. He remains confident that he would be able to bring the Maoist rebels to the negotiating table.

"Koirala has no moral right to remain in power as he is involved in the Lauda Air deal," said UML leader Adhikary. "We have already decided to take the issue onto the streets."

In internal party politics, Koirala does not see any major challenge from his party colleagues, as he has already asked his party friends to bring the vote of no-confidence to remove him. Even during the last vote of no-confidence in the Congress parliamentary party, Bhattarai rescued Koirala by not signing on as the crucial 57th MP.

Even UML leaders like Nepal and K.P. Sharma Oli ignored the feuding in the Nepali Congress as the ruling party's internal matter.

In a situation when parliament is stalled and the opposition is taking to the streets, Koirala still does not see any pressure building against him.

A mastermind of Nepali politics, Koirala knows what he has to do and what he doesn't. No one would be able to defeat him in politics since he has knows every skill needed to survive in politics.

"I don't know the reason behind his confidence, but I will promise you that the CPN-UML will bring down this government any time soon," said Adhikary.

Koirala replaced Bhattarai on the ground that his government was unable to restore the law-and-order situation in the country and control the increasing Maoist insurgency. But in the last one year, the situation has worsened.

"At a time when the government is unable to check the Maoist insurgency and prime minister is, himself, a part of corruption, he cannot stay in power," said Rabindra Nath Sharma, senior leader of RPP. As the opposition is making a desperate move to weaken the Nepali Congress, Koirala still is in a strong position.

As the deadlock continues between aggressive opposition parties and a confident prime minister, nobody knows what price the country will have to pay -- internally and externally -- to stabilize the situation.

‘I Haven't Seen Koirala In A Weaker Position’

-- BHARAT MOHAN ADHIKARY

CPN-UML leader and chief whip Bharat Mohan Adhikary is confident that Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala will resign within the next few days. Adhikary holds the view that Koirala's resignation is the only way to end the current political stalemate. Adhikary spoke to KESHAB POUDEL on various issues on Tuesday morning. Excerpts:

How long will your party's agitation last?

We will continue our agitation as long as it takes to force Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala to resign.

But Koirala seems to be more confident in his recent public meetings. What do you say?

I have had a four-decade-long political association with Prime Minister Koirala, but I have never seen Koirala in such a weak position. He is weak in the party and outside.

How do you justify your claim that Koirala is weak?

Look. Every day events are going against Koirala. The latest killing of more than 40 police personnel in Rukumkot is major setback for Koirala. One of his loyal supporters, Minister of Agriculture J.P. Ananda Gupta, resigned following a dispute over Space Time Network, the Supreme Court challenged his dismissal order of Dr. Tilak Rawal, governor of Nepal Rastra Bank, Defence Minister Mahesh Acharya forwarded his resignation and the Commission of Investigation of Abuse of Authority has asked to take action against Minister of Local Development Govinda Raj Joshi. If you see all these symptoms, the time is against Koirala.

The government blames the incident in Rukumkot on opposition efforts to block the Armed Police Force ordinance in parliament. How do you look at this allegation?

There is no basis for this accusation. It is just a ploy to avoid taking responsibility. If the armed police can contain control the insurgency, what happened when the Maoists attack the armed police station when ordinance was still alive? For the sad incident in Rukumkot, Prime Minister Koirala and Home Minister Ram Chandra Poudel should resign owning moral responsibility.

When there is a constitutional process to change the prime minister, why is the CPN-UML following unconstitutional means to force Koirala out?

We are not alone, as all opposition parties. including the RPP, Nepal Sadbhavana Party and others, are demanding the resignation of the prime minister.

Why don't you let parliament function and abide by the constitutional process?

Street agitation and stalling house proceedings are also part of the democratic exercise. There is nothing undemocratic in them. In the Philippines, the president was forced out of office by street protests. President Alberto Fujimori of Peru fled the country following similar agitation.

This means you are confident that Koirala will resign?

Definitely. It is just a matter of time. Koirala has no choice in front of him. He can quit gracefully like former prime minister Krishna Prasad Bhattarai or be forced out like Mohan Sumsher. When there is a total breakdown in the country's law and order and the economy is in a bad shape, how can he remain prime minister?

Your activities of the last two months question the commitment of the CPN-UML to the democratic process. Many donor countries have expressed displeasure with your effort to take the law into your hands. How do you look at this?

We believe in parliamentary practices and are committed to its norms and values. When the normal course does not bring results, we have to accept other democratic means to bring down the corrupt regime.

How can you label an individual corrupt when an investigative agency like the CIAA is yet to charge him formally?

When his own minister Tarani Dutta Chataut and senior officer Hari Bhakta Shrestha resigned, Prime Minister Koirala should follow them to pave the way for an impartial investigation. If the CIAA clears him, Koirala can become prime minister again. We would not have any objection then.

You mean Koirala is in a corner?

Yes. You can see how strong he is only after he quits as prime ministership. In the last days of his career, he is organizing a rally like the last prime minister of the Panchayat system Marich Man Singh did.

Can't Koirala address a rally?

We are not saying that he cannot address a rally, but the question is why does he need to do that? If you look at the situation of the last month, you can see the misrule of Koirala everywhere.

How do you evaluate the current economic situation?

The country's economy is in bad shape. The decision to mobilize the Royal Nepalese Army in customs offices shows that there is a complete breakdown of the civil administration. Development activities are at a standstill. If you look at the budget expenditures, the situation is bleaker. The government sanctions 9 billion rupees but spends less than 4 billion rupees. All these signs show that Koirala has completely failed to normalize the situation in the country.

MAOIST REBELLION
From Periphery To Center

A little-known rebel outfit establishes itself as a major political force in the country through violence. And the chances for peace are still remote

By BHAGIRATH YOGI

As the rest of their countrymen were celebrating 'Chaite Dashain', one of the major festivals of Hindus, more than 70 policemen were guarding one of the strategically important posts at Rukumkot in mid-western district of Rukum Sunday. Though they knew that their job was full of risks, they seemed little prepared to what was in the offing as the night progressed.

A few hours before midnight, hundreds of Maoist rebels attacked the post killing at least 30 policemen, injuring more than two dozen others and abducting an equal number of police personnel. By targeting a relatively strong police striking camp in their strongholds, Maoist rebels have once again proved their combat skills.

The police post in Rukumkot : Scene of rampage

"We are at a loss to know why our policemen could not resist the rebels," said a senior police official. The policemen, in fact, fought against the rebels for more than four hours before surrendering. Reports said the rebels killed even the surrendered policemen in cold blood. The episode also exposed lack of intelligence gathering and lack of preparedness on part of the police regarding possible assault.

The biggest-ever attack by the Maoists in the last five years has come days ahead of a nationwide shutdown strike called by the rebels on April 6. In September last year, the rebels had mounted a major attack at Dunai, the district headquarters of Dolpa in mid-western Nepal killing 14 policemen and looting nearly Rs 60 million from a local bank.

Genesis

A little known, ultra-left outfit, Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), decided to launch 'people's war' in the remote and impoverished western hills of the country in early 1996. The party said it wanted to turn Nepal into a `people's republic' and ensure transition of the society into socialism through communism -- something what China practiced under Mao Zedong in the latter half of the 20th century.

Five years down the lane, there has been much bloodshed in the country known world over for its peace and tranquility. According to official figures more than 1,600 people (including nearly 1,000 Maoist rebels and nearly 300 policemen) have been killed during the rebellion. Human rights groups say figures may be much higher than that.

Whatever be the figures, one of the poorest countries in the world has witnessed unprecedented surge in security budget at the cost of development budget. The government has raised its budget for internal security by more than double to Rs 7.15 billion for the year 2000/2001, up from Rs 2.91 billion only two years back (1998/99).

Rescuers transporting the dead and injured : Senseless violence

The Maoist activists launched their "war" by killing innocent people, school teachers, chopping of limbs of political workers, most of them belonging to the ruling Nepali Congress party, who did not support them. Later, the rebels started targeting the police posts and ambushed policemen. Starting from remote mid-western hills where there is no road, electricity and other modern means of development, the rebels have gradually expanded their activities in nearly half of the 75 districts in the country.

The violence continues

The government forces, too, started killing innocent persons in the name of Maoists, burning the houses of civilians, allegedly raping women and torturing anybody whom they thought as Maoists. International human rights organizations, including Amnesty International, have alleged that both the sides were committing extra-judicial killings.

Successive popularly elected governments saw the Maoist rebellion as a 'terrorist activity' and focused on strengthening the security forces over the last five years. But as the rebels continued to target ill-equipped police posts in the remote hills, it exposed lack of coordination among security agencies in the country.

Hundreds of Maoist rebels mounted their attack at Dunai, the headquarters of remote northern district of Dolpa bordering Tibet on September 25, 2000 killing 14 policemen, injuring nearly 40 and abducting 12 others. (They later released the abducted policemen.) The rebels completely destroyed district police office, a local prison and set the inmates free. (Interestingly, the inmates later returned to the authorities). They also looted nearly Rs 60 million in cash and kind from a local bank. A day later, they attacked a police post in western district of Lamjung and killed eight more policemen.

The impact of the attack was quite devastating. Home Minister Govinda Raj Joshi resigned from his post. Home Secretary Padma Pokhrel was transferred and police chief Achyut Krishna Kharel was forced to go on an extended leave only a few months before his retirement.

"The Dunai attack is an indicator of rising Maoist clamor to move from primary guerrilla war tactic to concentrated efforts in destroying the state's strongholds located in the district headquarters with frontal attack," said Prof. Dhruba Kumar, a strategic analyst with the Center for Nepal and Asian Studies (CNAS) at the Tribhuvan University. "As a result the civil authority in the country has paralyzed and the political authority discredited."

The United People's Front, considered to be the political outfit of the Communist Party of Nepal (Mashal)-- later known as CPN (Maoist), was the third largest political force in the parliament after the general elections of 1991. Though it did not have decisive numbers (with only nine members in the 205-member House of Representatives), the party used the parliament to "expose" the system rather than to fulfill people's aspirations. The UPF, led by Dr. Baburam Bhattarai, boycotted the 1994 mid-term polls and presented the 40-point demands to the then Sher Bahadur Deuba-led coalition in early 1996. Within a month, the Front supported "people's war" launched by the CPN (Maoist) and all its top leaders went underground.

By raising arms against the establishment, the CPN (Maoist) has placed itself into the center of national politics from the periphery. Its leaders claim that it is the only mainstream communist force in the country, though the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) party is the main opposition in parliament, with respectable representation (69 seats in the 205-member lower house of the parliament).

"The Maoist insurgency has turned out to be the most powerful social movement over the last one decade," said Dr. Chaitanya Mishra, professor of sociology at the Tribhuvan University. As the political leaders failed to deliver and inspire people from their deeds, Maoist rebels tried to fill in the void by giving popular slogans and intensifying conflicts both at the local and national level, say analysts.

Impact of "People's War"

The "people's war" has had its impact in almost all sectors of the Nepali society. Besides law and order, economy is suffering due to the on-going insurgent activities. The rebels are said to be targeting big industries, joint venture companies and major businesses in the country. They occasionally explode bombs in the premises of those businesses that don't patronize them with "donations." No major investment has come over the last couple of years. Tourism is the first victim of insurgency. Besides tourism, education sector is also suffering out of the insurgency. All schools and colleges remained closed for one week late last year at the call of ANNFSU (Revolutionary), a sister organization of the Maoist party. The National Human Rights Commission has expressed its concern over the growing violation of basic rights during the course of the Maoist insurgency. Reports say growing number of children, women and students are becoming the victims of the `war.'

Future of the Maoist insurgency

As both the government and rebels are working on to equip themselves, there are possibilities of more bloodshed in the future. The Maoists have already lured hundreds of poor and unemployed youth into their fold. Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala has said the government will launch a package of administrative, political, economic and development activities to counter the insurgency. But officials haven't said how will this 'package' be implemented and if there is any mechanism to see that it is not getting misused.

Some political leaders see wider implications of the Maoist rebellion upon the country's future. "Nepal's sovereignty may come under threat if the Maoist insurgency continues," said Surya Bahadur Thapa, former prime minister and chairman of Rastriya Prajatantra Party, the third largest party in parliament. He, however, did not say from where such a threat will emanate.

We could gather some indications from an interview given by Comrade Prachanda, general secretary of the Maoist party, to Revolutionary Worker magazine in early 2000. "There are big contradictions among the ruling classes (in Nepal) and there is also an unstable situation with India. Ultimately, we will have to fight with the Indian army. We will have to take into account of the Indian army," said Prachanda. The Maoist leader was of the view that Indian forces would ultimately enter Nepal to protect their interests if the 'people's war' gained strength and protracted over a longer period of time.

Prime Minister Koirala, during his visit to India last year, tried his best to assure the Indian government that Nepal will not allow any anti-India activities from Nepali soil. In turn, he urged Indian authorities to check activities of Nepali Maoists in India. Given the more than 1,700 km long common, open border between the two countries it would be a difficult thing for the Indian government to do, even if it wanted so.

Maoist leaders, too, accept that they are receiving international support for the cause of their war. "In the whole process of the final preparation (to declare `people's war') there was consistent international involvement. There was the Revolutionary International Movement (RIM) Committee and from the RIM Committee, we got the experience of the Peru Communist Party. We went to Bihar and Andhra Pradesh states of India and tried to understand the practical situation and practical problems of armed struggle there," said Comrade Prachanda, in his interview.

Failure of Peace Initiatives

The high-level committee formed to recommend ways to resolve the Maoist problem, headed by Nepali Congress leader and former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, said peace talks were the best thing to do to end the politics of violence in the country. Deuba, however, alleged his own party's government for not cooperating him to bring the rebels to the table of dialogue.

As if to outbid Deuba, Deputy Prime Minister Ram Chandra Poudel managed to talk to a rebel leader, Rabindra Shrestha, in October 2000 through the intermediation of a human rights activist, Padma Ratna Tuladhar. Though both the sides termed it as 'informal contacts,' people were hopeful that something positive would be coming in. After his dramatic release in early November last year, Dinesh Sharma, a central committee member of the Maoist party, along with his colleague Dinanath Gautam, told reporters in the capital that they denounced the violent means adopted by the Maoists.

Sharma refuted the statement made by him within a few hours saying that he had done so under duress leading to `cold relations' between the authorities and the rebels.

Though both the sides maintain a `warring posture, analysts say Maoists are beefing up attacks only to pressurize the government to initiate talks. Newly elected chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), Comrade Prachanda, has said his party would sit for dialogue only if the government created 'minimum environment' for it. The `minimum environment,' according to the rebels includes making public the whereabouts of its members and leaders, release them from detention unconditionally, and stop alleged "state terrorism" immediately.

Though belatedly, the government responded to these demands and made public whereabouts of nearly 300 Maoist activists under its custody or behind bars. The rebel leaders, however, dismissed this important gesture saying that it was a ploy to save the beleaguered Koirala government.

As the domestic and international pressure is mounting upon the government as well as the rebels to start peace initiative, both the parties seem to be trying to put themselves on a strong position from where they could bargain hard as and when they sit across the table of negotiations. The government initiated a process to set up a 9,000-strong `armed police force' under the Home Ministry to combat insurgent activities within the country but has failed to get it through the parliament. The rebels, too, have reportedly started recruiting more guerrillas in their strongholds to take on the government forces.

Conclusion

Though the government forces and Maoist rebels seem to be coming face to face, there is no other viable alternative to end this conflict than to bring the rebels to the table to negotiations, say analysts. "It is the right of the government to take necessary measures (such as setting up the armed police force) to strengthen security apparatus within the country, but the best way out is negotiations," said Prof. Dhruba Kumar.

"This conflict could have been prevented to a great extent if the previous governments had acted sincerely. Even now, if the government acts seriously it can still be prevented from getting escalated.'

Given the geo-political situation of Nepal, neither India not China would want to see an outbreak of major insurgency in this Himalayan kingdom. Nepalese democracy still has enough space to accommodate extra-parliamentary forces like the Maoists into its fold. In fact, they have got a breeding ground due to brewing corruption, poverty and unemployment in the country. As the government can't channel its scarce resources to fight insurgency for long, it must go ahead with peace initiatives

By adopting "Marxism-Leninist-Maoism-Prachanda Path" as their guiding philosophy and demanding for an interim government with representation from all sides to form a "people's constitution," the Maoists have indicated that they want to participate in the parliamentary process sooner than later, say analysts. "But they don't want to hold talks with the Koirala government as long as the present political stalemate doesn't come to an end," said Shyam Shrestha. "In fact, their latest attack at Rukumkot seems to have motivated at forcing the Koirala government to resign."

There are other bigger issues too. "The most worrying factor to me is that the gap between the ruling elites in the capital and people in the far-flung areas has further widened and there is no communication between them," said Prof. Kapil Shrestha, member of NHRC, who has recently returned to the capital after visiting Maoists strongholds of Rukum and Rolpa. "

Unfortunately, you can't find a solution to the problem of insurgency militarily and tight now, there is no congenial environment for peace talks."

As such, the sounds of guns will continue to be heard in remote Nepalese hills, once known for their beauty and tranquility around the world.