NATIONAL 5 (Spotlight Weekly)]

Hands That Rock the Cradle

Conflicting interests of its giant neighbors and politicians without integrity continue to make Nepalese politics unstable

By BHAGIRATH YOGI

Nepalese politics is known for its complex nature. Not only laymen, even seasoned analysts find it difficult to explain the `ridiculous' behavior exhibited by Nepalese political actors time and again.

Why would the main opposition UML, that has pretty fair chances of forming a government, would disrupt the parliamentary proceedings for nearly two months? Worse, why would it choose to lead violent street protests with other non-descript left parties when opinion polls say more people would vote for it than the ruling Nepali Congress if the elections were held now?

A scene of political agitation : Where is its origin ?

Contradictions in Nepalese politics do not end here. `Republicans' Dr. Baburam Bhattarai and Comrade `Prachanda' confirmed that they had had secret parleys with a royal nominee in the parliament, Ramesh Nath Pandey. If it were in Sri Lanka, the police would have summoned Pandey to know about his motive in meeting the underground leaders that are waging a five-year-old rebellion to throw the constitutional monarchy and parliamentary polity. Or, Pandey himself would have been forced to resign for bringing the monarchy into unwarranted controversy. Not in Nepal.

In a statement issued early this month, the European Union condemned recent attacks upon police posts by Maoist rebels in Nepal and said it supported the democratic government and process of democracy enshrined in the constitution of Nepal. The governments of Norway and US also supported the EU move. Interestingly, none of the communist parties in the country, including the UML, condemned brutal attacks by the rebels upon the security personnel.

Opposition leaders, however, criticized the concerns raised by the international community. "The international community, including the US, has no right to interfere into our domestic affairs," said Narayan Man Bijukchhe, chairman of Nepal Workers and Peasants Party, a communist outfit. "In fact, we strongly believe that the US imperialism will come to an end sooner than later.î

Former Prime Minister Bhattarai (right) with Defense and foreign Minster Jaswant Singh : Cementing ties

More than the international concerns, undeclared 'cold war' between two giants neighbors, India and China, may have had its impact on the prolonged political instability in the country, say analysts. Writes Ganesh Raj Sharma, a noted lawyer and political analyst in the latest issue of Himal Khabarpatrika, "Nepal lost its long-found stability from both of its neighbors after Chinese army took the control of Tibet in 1950. Looking at the military power of China in Tibet, India has been launching several covert and overt operations in Nepal to bring this Himalayan kingdom under its security system. That's why, Nepal has fallen victim to all-round instability over the last several decades."

According to Sharma, India would find it suitable to launch its operations under communist cover whereas China would find it appropriate to use people of Indian origin or under Indian influence to further its interests. "If there were no foreign conspiracies, Nepalese people and its leadership had capabilities to run a democratic polity," said Sharma.

Interestingly, analysts say communist rulers of China see the monarchy and centrist Nepali Congress as their dependable friends in Nepal rather than more than a dozen communist parties including the one holding guns in the name of Mao. Nobody should be amazed, hence, to see that none of the Communist parties welcomed the move taken by the Koirala government a few months back to open an alternative land route to Tibet autonomous region of China to link Kathmandu via Kerung.

This could naturally irk the 'security sensitive' southern neighbor. For the last 50 years, Beijing has not changed the way it looks at New Delhi. The decades-old mistrust anchored in a volatile past and a present conditioned by India's nuclear tests in May 1998 continues. Beijing has been one of the most stringent critics of Pokhran2, viewing it as India's grand "hegemonic and expansionistic" design.

Experts say India expects others to fight for its cause. So, instead of squarely facing the Chinese threat, it has tried to continuously play it down. It has gone out of its way each time to placate China. India recognized Taiwan as a part of China as far back as in 1950. In 1954, New Delhi accepted Chinese authority over Tibet. On the other hand, China refused to recognize Sikkim as a part of India and continues to claim parts of Arunachal Pradesh as its territory. China still considers Kashmir as a "disputed territory" to be resolved bilaterally between India and Pakistan.

Prime minister Koirala (left) with Chinese leader Li Peng : Honoring friendship

Both India and China are immersed in radical economic reforms and are competing to capture the global market. China's sway over South East Asia stands undisputed. Its growing economic clout, military strength and political stability are way ahead of India, which would like recognition as a major player. It is no secret that China has been listed as the world's second largest military power. In India's perception this is alarming.

Besides diplomatic finesse, growing interaction between Nepal and China over the last few years has drawn international attention. Considered as a buffer state between two Asian giants (India and China) Nepal has been adopting a principle of equi-distance with both of its great neighbors for the last several hundred years. But due to its geographical compulsion and socio-cultural reasons, Nepal has to maintain close relations with India.

As more than 16 percent of Nepal's territory lies north of the Himalayas, Nepal not only belongs to South Asia, it also shares geographical features of China's Tibet, which touches Central Asia. Nepal has hence always possessed strategic importance. The British considered Nepal, Bhutan and Sikkim as buffer states. Nepali people continued to preserve Nepal's independence and sovereignty by pursuing a policy of balance and equidistance with both China and India. The concept of depicting Nepal as a yam between two boulders is the reflection of this geographical reality.

The establishment of diplomatic relation with China in 1955, the cross-border transit treaty with autonomous region of Tibet and the Peace and Friendship Treaty between Nepal and China in 1960 had opened the way for promotion of friendship on the basis of `Panchsheel.' Nepal has treated the Tibetan affair as an internal matter of China and has consistently supported the policy of one China.

Till 1950 the Himalayas were considered as the secure boundary of India as there existed the buffer zone of Tibet, which prevented the Chinese army from coming face to face with those of India. But the situation in 1950 changed completely with the Chinese considering the Himalayas as their outer line of defense and Tibet as falling under their sovereign jurisdiction.

In 1959, the entire scenario changed with the escape of the Dalai Lama to India. India's offer of political asylum to the Dalai Lama added fuel to the fire and resulted into the border conflict of 1962. Within one year of the escape of Dalai Lama to India, then King Mahendra devised a partyless Panchayat polity for Nepal, independent of political systems in India or China.

The 1950 Treaty of Peace and Friendship between Nepal and India of 1950 has established the primacy of India in Nepal in exclusion of any other country calling for consultations in the event of either country was threatened. This treaty was signed in virtual perpetuity.

The 120-km long Arniko highway was constructed in 1962-64 period with Chinese assistance despite India's objection. The then King Mahendra had argued to silence the Indian critics by saying that, "communism does not come by taxi cab." The construction of highway was the opening of the first Chinese gateway to South Asia. The Arniko highway has remained a militarily strategic point for both India and China while Nepal has considered it as politically important in its policy of balancing the neighbors. Recently, China has agreed to support Nepal to construct an alternative route, Syaprubesi-Rasuwa-Kerung highway, as an alternative to Kodari highway. Interestingly, Nepali communist parties, instead of welcoming the bold decision taken by the centrist Nepali Congress government, chose to stall the parliament with a view to pull down the government.

Nepali leaders have always been susceptible of Indian intentions in the past. India's annexation of Sikkim in 1974 was enough to give rise to a sense of insecurity to Nepal. Within six months, with a view to preempt any Indian attempt to limit Nepal's sovereignty King Birendra proposed that Nepal be declared a zone of peace. More than 100 countries of the world, including China, supported Nepal's proposal, not India.

Nepal's relation with China was further strengthened but its relation with India became strained as a result of the Peace Zone proposal. The Indian government considered that this proposal was virtually an attempt to nullify the 1950 Treaty. Although the proposal was endorsed by China within one year of its announcement, India continuously said that it was studying the proposal.

To show its friendship with China, Nepal completely routed the Khampa rebels who were active in Nepal in the early seventies. As an appreciation, top-ranking Chinese leaders including supreme leader Deng Xiaoping visited Nepal.

Except for the secret military agreement of 1965 between Nepal and India, the two countries had developed slightly divergent views on the patterns of their relation. Nepal's national interest could be equated with its interest of survival.

During the cold war, India was too sensitive to China's activities of developing even normal relations with its South Asian neighbors. Now, with the increasing improvement of Sino-Indian relations, this kind of sensitivity will definitely be reduced day by day.

Nepal has never encouraged nearly 30,000 Tibetan refugees residing in Nepal. The refugee community, actively engaged in commercial activities including carpet business, is considered one of the affluent refugee communities in the world. Thanks to the hospitality offered by the Nepalese people over the last four decades, they are on the verge of assimilation, say experts.

"It is a well-known fact that the supporters of Free Tibet Movement based in India have used Nepal as a conduit to transfer men and propaganda materials into Tibet. The government of Nepal, despite the request of Chinese government authorities not to allow anti-China activities from Nepali soil, has failed to stop Free Tibet Movement activists from sending men and propaganda materials into Tibet through the only Arniko highway (previously called Kodari highway) connecting Nepal to Tibet," said Dr. C. K. Tiwari, a political scientist based in Washington D. C. " The flight of Karmapa Lama into India in the winter of 2000 through the territory of Nepal has made Beijing unhappy with Kathmandu."

Nepal procured weapons from China in 1988 to which India objected heavily. India unilaterally imposed trade blockage against Nepal in 1989-90, during which a pro-democracy movement flared up resulting into the restoration of multi-party democracy in the country.

"Nepal has been trying to expedite development of its northern areas by opening more passes across Nepal-China border. But external powers have been applying pressure against opening any such routes," said Hiranya Lal Shrestha, a former MP and leader of the CPN (ML). "After 1949, China has adopted a new foreign and security policy, whereas Nepal's southern neighbor has given continuity to the same British-India's foreign policy characterized by hegemonistic behavior against small neighbors."

As soon as security interests of big neighbors would continue to clash in this Himalayan kingdom, foreign diplomats would be found with huge cache of arms a day before their departure and streets of the Nepali capital would continue to look ugly.