NATIONAL 2 (Spotlight Weekly)]

Powerless Days Ahead

The Nepal Electricity Authority’s decision to increase the duration of load-shedding indicates that the people may have to face severe power shortages in the days ahead

By KESHAB POUDEL

Sales of small generators and back-up systems have sharply increased in Kathmandu, as almost all trading houses seek their own power systems in the midst of endless hours of official load-shedding.

Households in the terai districts have to spend blistering nights without fans and coolers. They are bracing for the coming sizzling days when temperatures go up to 40 degrees Celsius, as an early solution to the country’s power shortage remains elusive. The severe power crisis was expected when the NEA started to use water from the Kulekhani reservoir until the last minute.

Bhote Koshi supply : A big support

Because of growing demand, the prices of generators have gone up by as much as 15 percent. "We have received orders for more than 100 sets of generators," said one supplier.

Even after the completion of four hydropower projects and the review of the power exchange treaty with India, Nepal’s national grid does not have enough electricity to meet the demand in the peak season. The sudden power cuts announced by the NEA prove that, as long as there is no effective system in place, Nepal may have to continue facing a scarcity of electricity.

According to the NEA’s load forecasting, Nepal’s energy available in peak hour was 1600 GWh in 2000 whereas there was a demand of 1701 GWh. Now Nepal requires 1788 GWh of energy and the supply of electricity is 408 MW. It seems that there is a wide gap in the peak load supply. The peak demand of electricity is between 320-340 MW but the country cannot generate electricity at the required level.

As the NEA has used storage water of Indrawati to generate the electricity during the peak season of December, the level of water is now so low that it cannot generate electricity.

Kulekhani I and Kulekhani II supply 90 MW of electricity. Although the newly installed Bhotekoshi, with its small reservoir, is said generate 36 MW in the peak hour, it is not able to fulfill the gap.

The NEA depends on four sources to supply electricity in April and May when the storage projects like Kulekhani are in no position to generate electricity, as snow-fed rivers like Marsyangdi, Trishuli and Sunkoshi have little amount of water discharge. Compared to the months of June, July, August, September and October, electricity generation in April falls to half.

According to the NEA’s annual report of 2056, an average 5,000 MWh of electricity was generated in June, July, August, September and October. But production fell to abut 2,500 MWh in the months of March, April and May.

Water reservior : More of these needed

"Since there is a sharp difference in the energy generation capability of each run-of-the-river power houses in winter and summer, there is sharp shortage of energy capability, which is to be subsidized by the accumulated water in storage-type power houses. This demands more storage-type power houses, which can balance and fulfill that total sharp drop found in all the river capability so far used for generation which is not the united case but cyclical per each year," said L.L. Pradhan in his article in Vidut magazine.

The NEA is meeting the deficit in the peak season through the import of electricity from India and running diesel power plants. Nepal generates 56.75 MW electricity from its five diesel power stations, including the Dhubi Multifuel I and II that have a total capacity of 39 MW. Nepal also imports up to 50 MW power from India during the season.

"The load-shedding may end only if there is heavy rainfall," said Bishnu Bam Malla, managing director of the NEA. "The situation may also improve if enough snow melts in the Himalayas."

Others, however, do not see the latest phase of load-shedding ending any time soon. "Even with rising temperatures or some rainfall, it would be impossible to curtail load-shedding. Only the monsoon rains would be able to ease things."

The situation may have been averted if energy was used in a planned manner in the early days. The Bhotekoshi is said to be supplying 36 MW. Power generation from most of the projects goes down until May. Things will begin to improve after June.

From the month of June to September, Nepal will have surplus production and may not have to import power. If we see the trends of 1999/2000 and 2000/2001, Nepal continues to import electricity from India at an average rate of 40 MW per month.

In the last three weeks, the NEA has changed its load-shedding schedule a couple of times and has increased the duration from four hours to six hours a day. As electricity supply is interrupted frequently, nobody knows how long the outage will last.

The load-shedding has hit normal life and brought much of the industrial sector to a total standstill. A delegation of from the Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industry has met Water Resources Minister Baldev Sharma Majgaiya and requested him to ensure the supply of electricity during working hours.

The NEA has cited low temperature and low rainfall for the shortage of power supply and has already expressed regret for having been compelled to announce the load shedding. According to the NEA, the water level at the Kulekhani river has gone down significantly and water discharge in snow-fed river like Trishuli, Marsyangdi, Bhote Koshi and Khimti has slowed.

Normally, water levels in rivers like Marsyangdi start to rise from April, when the snow starts to melt. The discharge increases in May because of some rain. With the onset of the monsoon, the discharge steeply rises until August. The flow is maintained in September and October due to inter-flow and the rise of underground water and drop of river velocity on lower slope with stored water. From November, the discharge goes on decreasing until March.

If this is the situation each year, why has no one has made any effort to avert the severe crisis? Simply, no one thought the situation would become so bad. After signing the agreement with India to increase the import of up to 100 MW, Nepalese officials had heaved a sigh of relief.

"Nepal will have reliable energy next year because India will start to supply power as demanded by Nepal and Kali Gandaki A, which has a capacity of 144 MW, will begin generating power. Now altogether 15 hydropower plants, including Khimti and Bhotekoshi, are generating electricity as demanded by the NEA.

In the fiscal year 1999\00, NEA availed 1701.45 GWh of energy (15.35% increase) in its power system and system recorded peak load of 351.86 MW (7.80% increase). In the fiscal year 1998\99, the available energy and peak load were 1475.0 GWh and 326.4 MW respectively. Out of total available energy in the NEA system, hydropower contributed 1233.22 GWh (72.48%) thermal energy 66.73 GWh (3.92%), import from India 232.22 GWh (13.65 %) and purchase from Nepal was 169.3 GWh (9.95 %).

Nepal needs to have a seasonal storage project like Kulekhani I and II with capacity of 92 MW. After the completion of the project, no government has taken steps to construct another reliable storage project.

After the completion of four power projects including Khimti and Bhotekoshi in the private sector, many believed that load-shedding would stop for a while. That turned out to be just another misplaced hope.