NATIONAL 6 -(Spotlight Weekly)]

Are They Sincere?

As rebels try to strengthen their position, officials doubt at their sincerity

By A CORRESPONDENT

From Nuwagaon (in mid-western district of Rolpa), they have landed right into the capital. For the first time since the launching of 'people's war' mor e than five years back, sister organizations of the underground Maoist party organized an 'open mass meeting' at Indrachowk last week. The Maoist activists warned anyone who would try to spoil the environment for talks but insisted that they would not be satisfied on anything less than 'total change."

As the 'cease-fire' between the government and Maoist rebels entered into the second week largely peacefully, the Home Ministry announced that it was going to release 15 Maoist activists put behind bars under the Public Security Regulations. The rebels, too, responded by releasing a few policemen.

Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, on his part, was busy consulting political leaders from the opposition as well as within the ruling party. His aides said the premier is trying his best to seize the opportunity and work out a lasting peace with the rebels. Officials, however, suspect that the Moiosts could use the opportunity to strengthen their position for future offensive.

Kantipur daily reported that the rebels were collecting 'donations' at a huge scale from all over the country. Taking benefit of the lax security, they have even started collecting licensed arms from private citizens right in the capital, the report said.

"The Maoists have not halted their terrorist tactics despite agreeing to a 'cease-fire' with the government," said Ram Chandra Poudel, former deputy Prime Minister, in the House of Representatives Tuesday. "These activities are not conducive for the dialogue.'

The Maoist leadership has made it clear that they have moved far away from the 40-point demands that the United People's Front led by Dr. Baburam Bhattarai had presented, coincidentally, to then premier Deuba in early 1996. Now their main demands include convening of meeting of 'all sides,' formation of an interim government, and formulation of 'people's constitution' under that government.

While Premier Deuba has started preparations to convene meeting of the parties within and out of the parliament separately, moving beyond that would require him support from the ruling as well as opposition parties. The central working committee of the ruling Nepali Congress is scheduled to meet Friday to give the mandate for dialogue to the government. But it is a common sense that the Congress will not enter into any agreement against the constitutional monarchy and parliamentary democracy-- the cause of which it has championed for the last five decades. "We should try to evolve national consensus with due regard to nationality, monarchy and democracy," said former Prime Minister GP Koirala in his hometown Biratnagar last week.

After the June 1 massacre at the Narayanhiti royal palace, the Maoists have claimed that a situation of republic has emerged in the country. "Now there is a need to institutionalize that republic," said Comrade Prachana, the top Maoist leader.

The cease-fire between the government and the guerrillas is certainly a new development. However, there had been several such cease-fires and 'talks' between the two parties in the people's wars of China, Vietnam, Korea, Kampuchea, and Laos, say analysts.

"Of course, both sides are tired and want to rest for a while. Insurgents and governments both, in other countries, have tried to consolidate their respective positions during these cease-fires.

Nepal's case can not be isolated because both sides are getting advice from their respective ideological friends, and also from historical literatures," said Dr. Chitra k. Tiwari, a political scientist based in Washington D. C.

"I do not see any chance of negotiated settlement of Maoist insurgency because I don't find any point of negotiation for either parties. The timing of cease-fire is natural because the insurgency is in what Mao calls the Strategic Stalemate phase. It is a time for insurgents to consolidate their gains and prepare for the final phase i.e. the Strategic Offensive. Once they enter this phase the war will be over (in favor of the insurgents) within a few weeks to a couple of months. That is why the government is trying to slowdown the process to buy time so that insurgents would not enter the Strategic Offensive phase," said Tiwari.

This means that the first-ever cease-fire between the government and the insurgents may not last long despite international goodwill and paramount domestic pressure.