NATIONAL 6 -(Spotlight Weekly)]

Divide And Rule

With Madhav Kumar Nepal in the firing line, can Sher Bahadur Deuba be far behind?

By BHAGIRATH YOGI

Things seem to be moving fast, mostly behind the curtains, in Nepali politics. And many players, including self-proclaimed revolutionaries, are being unmasked.

Within a fortnight of hosting him in a foreign town, the underground Maoist party `opened fire' against leader of the main opposition Madhav Kumar Nepal. Janadesh weekly, said to be close to the Maoists, on Tuesday accused CPN (UML) general secretary Nepal of betraying the cause of revolution, siding with the palace and conspiring with the government against the Maoists. The weekly also blamed Nepal for exposing the `secret plan' of the people's war to the royal palace and influencing Premier Sher Bahadur Deuba to announce programs targeted at weakening the Maoist cause.

Nepal came in the firing line after he briefed his party about his meeting with the top Maoist leadership and made it public. In a press statement after the meeting, the UML said Nepal told Maoist chairman Prachanda that the rebels' demands for an interim government, new constitution and a republic could endanger the sovereignty of the nation. "It could even weaken the communist movement and make us lose the achievements that we attained after the restoration of democracy in 1990," Nepal told the Maoist leader. Issues including massive reforms in political, economic and social sectors, formation of an all-party government for a free and fair elections, and revolutionary land reforms were also discussed during their meeting, the party said.

With the main opposition refusing to join its bandwagon, the Maoist leadership seems to be back to its job ó spreading propaganda and confusing people. After their sustained campaign against former prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala, who wanted to strengthen the government's position against the rebels by using force, succeeded in the form of the exit of the Congress strongman, Prachanda issued a statement saying his party would not hold talks with anybody who would pursue Koirala's policies.

With Deuba riding to power on July 22, everything seemed going smooth. Comrade Prachanda accepted Deuba's proposal for a temporary ëcease fire' and called on his comrades to withhold all offensive activities. While the security forces have turned their eyes away, the underground party has used the period by organizing mass meetings, raising forced ëdonations,' regrouping and training cadres and bargaining hard with the government even before the talks start. All this is for conserving force for the final battleóthe `strategic stalemate,' in communist jargon -- analysts say.

As the Maoists continue to harp on the setting up of an interim government, elections to a constituent assembly and formulation of a new constitution to make Nepal a ëpeople's republic,' it's least likely that the government and the rebels can reach consensus even after the negotiations. "The talks are least likely to yield positive results," Premier Deuba told the meeting of Nepali Congress central working committee last week. He, however, did not explain how the government planned to counter the intensified Maoist offensive thereafter.

The Maoists are likely to reopen their offensive against the demoralized police force only after they become sure that the Royal Nepalese Army is not going to come to the support of the ill-equipped force. The army refused to mount decisive action against the rebels, despite getting clear instructions from the National Security Council, in their Holeri operation. Only if the army had acted decisively to ensure the release of nearly 70 policemen abducted by the rebels in the mid-western hills, the scenario would have been completely different by now, analysts say.

As Koirala decided to step down in the aftermath of the Holeri incident, Prachanda issued a statement saying that his party would not hold talks with anybody who would pursue Koirala's policies. Clearly, the underground party was meddling in the internal affairs of the ruling party. But nobody from the ruling party, or the opposition, chose to condemn that act. And, within a few weeks, the Maoists have started attacking what they call the ëMadhav Nepal clique' within the UML, as they did against Koirala.

As the Maoist party is trying to emerge as the largest communist force in the country through violent means, such a conflict with the UML was inevitable. But by targeting Nepal, rather than the entire UML, the Maoists have resumed their old game of divide and rule. The turn of Deuba ó whom the Maoists have described as a ëliberal mask' -- may not be far away.