NATIONAL 2 (Spotlight Weekly)]

Convulsions In Kathmandu

The devastating earthquake that hit the western Indian state of Gujarat wakes up Nepalese officials

By KESHAB POUDEL

As Kathmandu lies in an active earthquake zone, the devastation in the western Indian state of Gujarat has come as a wake-up call to Nepalese officials. Officials in different ministries and non-governmental organizations see in Gujarat's tragedy a lesson on rescue and rehabilitation efforts.

Nepal has witnessed more than half a dozen big quakes in the last three decades. The great earthquake of 1934, which flattened many parts of Kathmandu valley, remains firmly etched in the minds of those who experienced it.

Gujarat quake : Terrible aftermath

As Kathmandu valley is prone to earthquakes, Nepal needs to study the experiences of other places in order to minimize losses. Despite the fact that Nepal lies in an active seismic zone, earthquake preparedness has always received low priority.

Experts and officials understand that the risk of an earthquake has increased significantly since the last major one, but the government does not appear to be overly concerned.

Kathmandu valley can face massive devastation in a big earthquake. According to a study, more than 60 percent of the houses in the valley would be destroyed.

A quake above magnitude 7 on Richter scale could leave up to 700,000 people homeless.

Given the confusion in almost every sphere of emergency response today, there is a serious possibility of lack of coordination among organization entrusted with carrying out rescue and evacuation activities.

In the Gujarat case, local communities played an important role in rescuing and evacuating people trapped in collapsed buildings.

A study conducted by National Society for Earthquake Technology Nepal (NSET) showed that over 50,000 people would be killed in an earthquake. The country needs to have medicines and doctors on stand-by to provide service to more than 150,000 patients.

"The Health Ministry has regular programs for disaster response. We are developing some emergency rescue packages for immediate treatment," said Padma Prasad Pokharel, secretary at the ministry.

The valley's infrastructure is more vulnerable to quakes. A big quake would damage more than 50 percent of lifeline services like electricity, telephone and drinking water supply.

Despite official claims, Nepal's preparedness level is poor in comparison to other countries that face similar risks. Although a Central Disaster Relief Committee exists under the home minister, no one seems know how it would work when faced with a real disaster.

If we recall historical events, the risk of a major earthquake is very high in the valley. Kutch faced a great earthquake of 8.3 Richter scale in 1819.

Although NSET-NEPAL is implementing a Kathmandu Valley Earthquake Risk Management Project, it remains to take action on minimizing the risks from a large earthquake.

"The Kathmandu Municipality has already prepared a disaster preparedness plan for ward No 20," said Padma Sunder Joshi, chief of Urban Development Department Kathmandu Metropolitan City. "We will prepare such plans for other wards also."

Bhaktapur and Lalitpur municipalities are also planning to carry out campaigns to make the local population aware about earthquake and ways to minimize damage.

"I am strictly monitoring building construction work in the area and considering training local volunteers," said Buddhi Raj Bajracharya, mayor of Lalitpur Sub-metropolitan City.

Nepal lies between Tibetan plate in the north and the Indian plate in the south. Indian plate continues in a northward motion. In weak geological conditions, the intensity of the quake is amplified.

Geologically, the structure of Kathmandu valley is very weak. In Kathmandu, many houses are built without following the building code. Studies have shown that most of the houses in Kathmandu are like a 'death trap' -- as if people are digging graves for themselves.

As Nepal does not have big hydro dam and industrial plants, there may not be much to worry about on that front. Kulekhani, which is one of the biggest reservoirs, is filled with water only during the monsoon until December. Other dams are run of the river projects which will not cause any damage except in terms of power supply.

"National calamities are a regular phenomenon and we are very much aware about the country's vulnerability," said senior official at the Home Ministry.

"I am scared to calculate the possible damage if there is a earthquake like the one that struck Gujarat. Almost all buildings will collapse and people will be trapped within their houses," said architectural engineer Bharat Sharma. "If we had sincerely followed the mitigation plan prepared after the 1934 earthquake, Kathmandu valley would not have had to be so scared by the very mention of earthquakes."

Seismologically, Nepal is more vulnerable. "First of all, we must remember that the quake will come without any notice. As we have a history of great earthquakes, there is a possibility of another quake occurring any time. Thus, we must start effective work to minimize the damage and losses.

"Although other parts of the country are vulnerable, the geological composition increases the risk in Kathmandu valley," said Madhav Raj Pandey, chief of the National Seismological Center (NSC).

Valleys are at risk in the geologically volatile Himalayas where small tremors are recorded every day. The center recorded about 12,000 seismic events in 1998, including 8,000 regional tremors. In 1996 and 1997, the highest number of seismic activities were recorded by the center. According to geologists, there's a chance of a major earthquake hitting the Kathmandu valley before the year 2034 .

Geologically, a quake is a regular phenomenon of earth and it is natural for a country like Nepal, where the young Himalayas are gaining height owing to many big and small faults within the territory.

According to geologists, the continuing northward motion of Indian plate at the rate of about 5 centimeters per year induced widespread deformation and faulting and thrusting of its rocks at the collision front, giving rise to world's highest mountains.

"Intense seismic activity in Asia and particularly along the Himalayan area is related to this ongoing process," said Pandey. "The seismicity of the Himalayas is the direct consequence of the ongoing process of faulting and thrusting."

The large-scale thrusting developed from north to south in the last 25 million years, giving rise to the main central thrust separating the lesser Himalayas from the Higher Himalayas. The main boundary thrust separates the lesser Himalayas from the sub-Himalayas of Churia range.

Theories show that bigger the magnitude of an earthquake, the greater its destruction potential. On the other hand, smaller the magnitude of earthquakes, the more frequent their occurrence. Kathmandu does not have frequent quakes so experts are expecting a bigger one.

Gujarat had some preparedness and possessed the capabilities to cope with such disasters. But a country like Nepal, which does not have a recent history of major disasters, needs to prepare itself for the big one.