NATIONAL 1 (Spotlight Weekly)]

Who Benefits?

Violence in Kathmandu valley sparks an outcry in India. Can a repetition in the terai be tolerable?

By KESHAB POUDEL

The shock waves unleashed by rumors of insults allegedly made by Indian film star Hrithik Roshan are gradually fading in much of the country. But the situation in the southern terai region still remains volatile because of the Nepal Sadbhavana Party's threat to launch more protests.

At a time when all major political parties have agreed to work toward restoring law and order in the country, the NSP -- portrayed as pro-Indian by the Indian media -- and eight left parties are yet to make a clear stand.

Singh : Pressing demand

As anti-Indian activities in Nepal are regularly blamed on foreign conspirators, it is unclear who will benefit from the NSP's latest threats.

Few can fathom why the NSP is bent on fanning tensions in the terai, which could only cause greater instability in the country. The violence that gripped Kathmandu valley last month following what was just a rumor destroyed property worth millions of rupees. The possibility of similar violence in the terai during pre-planned demonstrations led by the NSP cannot be ruled out.

The government has apologized for the incident in Rajbiraj and a high-level commission is looking into the attacks on people of the terai. The NSP's threat to launch an agitation even after the government made those assurances is being viewed with some suspicion.

The NSP has called strikes in several southern districts to protest against attacks on people of, and property belonging to, Nepalis of the terai.

Limited violence in the capital created a barrage of comments in the Indian media. The repetition of such activities in the terai has been greeted by a complete silence by India's print and electronic media.

The recent violence has already given a message to Indian policy makers that instability in Nepal will harm their interests. Whether the instability originates in the terai or in the hills, the impact on India will be the same.

A strong and stable Nepal alone can guarantee the security of its neighbors.

"Nepal has seen a growth of radical political ideology in the last 10 years, which has been gradually destroying India's traditional and dependable allies in Nepal. The monarchy is gradually weakening along with traditional forces like the centrist Congress and rightist Rastriya Prajatantra Party," said a political analyst.

"As long as Nepal has a strong Hindu cultural and religious base, anti-Indian sentiment cannot last long," another analyst said. "Unfortunately, efforts are being made to destroy the base in the name of opposing Sanskrit education and calling for a secular state."

The British colonial government in India always stood for Nepal's stability as it understood the country's position to exercise a powerful influence on India's internal stability.

If Nepal continues to descend into periodic phases of instability, it cannot be good news for the neighborhood.

ORDINANCE
Security Risk?

After the recent mysterious violence followed by a two-day Nepal Bandh, King Birendra finally accepted Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala's proposal to issue an ordinance to set up an armed police force.

As Nepal already has a 40,000-strong Royal Nepalese Army and 35,000-member police force, the formation of separate armed police force is questionable. Strategic analysts hold the view that the armed police will not be used to contain the Maoists insurgency but to create a rift between the armed forces in Nepal.

Although Prime Minister Koirala's coterie used all means, including influencing major newspapers, to create a favorable situation for setting up the armed police force, few believe such a force would be able to quell the Maoists. "Setting up the armed police is not in the interest of Nepal. What prompted Koirala to hurriedly issue the ordinance just a month before the regular session of parliament?" asked an analyst.

The decision to set up the armed police will remain one of the controversial decisions at the end of Prime Minister Koirala's political career. Strangely, Koirala, who survived a leadership challenge from within his party last week, disowned the suggestion of the high-level commission chaired by his main rival, Sher Bahadur Deuba, which sees the Maoists insurgency as a political problem. With the confluence of these events, those who saw the confrontation between Rakshya Dal and Royal Nepal Army in the 1960s are worried.