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COVER STORY |
SHER
BAHADUR DEUBA Having garnered the overwhelming support of the Congress parliamentary party, Sher Bahadur Deuba has been appointed prime minister for the second time in 12 years of multi-party democracy. No prime minister has completed a full five-year tenure and the country has seen 10 governments under six political leaders. After winning the parliamentary party election, Deuba declared that he would complete the remaining three-year term of the Nepali Congress and would hold the next general elections. But few are willing to bet on what lies in store for the Deuba government, especially at a time when the opposition has set the precedent of removing the prime minister. In these uncertain circumstances, Prime Minister Deuba will have to rely more on the wishes of the minority in parliament than on his own party. By KESHAB POUDEL When newly elected leader of the Nepali Congress parliamentary party and prime minister-in-waiting Sher Bahadur Deuba declared that he would complete the remaining three-year tenure of his party on July 22 following the announcement of parliamentary party election result, outgoing prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala and his predecessor Krishna Prasad Bhattarai gave each other a quizzical look while raising their hands in solidarity with Deuba.
The uneasiness of Koirala and Bhattarai was understandable. Both were forced to resign as prime minister before the completion of their tenure. Although the circumstances might have been different, both were pushed out of office amid growing political pressure. The two senior Congress leaders and Deuba’s rival in the parliamentary party election, Sushil Koirala, expressed whole-hearted support for the new prime minister. But words of good will would not be enough for the Deuba government’s survival. "I am behind Sher Bahadurji and the Nepali Congress party will fully support its own government," said out-going Prime Minister Koirala. Added Bhattarai, "Deubaji is a capable second-generation leader and there is no question of the party not supporting him." As important leaders of the ruling party publicly threw their weight behind Deuba, opposition leaders in parliament, Madhav Kumar Nepal and K.P. Sharma Oli, who were at the forefront of the campaign to force Koirala to step down, offered conditional support to the new prime minister. This means that communist and other opposition parties in parliament may choose to resume their disruption of legislative proceedings if anybody not acceptable to them found a place in the cabinet. "Our party will decide the course it needs to take in the case of the Deuba government. We can support Deuba on condition that he chooses ministers having an untainted record," said Oli, deputy leader of the main opposition CPN-UML. "Our struggle against the Nepali Congress government will continue. We will create hurdles in parliament if the government is packed with corrupt individuals." It seems that Deuba's majority in his parliamentary party may not have much meaning if he is unable to abide by the terms and conditions put forward by the opposition parties, comprising five leftist and two rightist groups, in parliament. The CPN-UML and four other communist parties have already set conditions for supporting the Nepali Congress government led by Deuba. "Deubaji must show that his government is different than Koirala’s. It must be clean and efficient," said Lilamani Pokharel, a radical communist leader in parliament. "We will lay siege to parliament in the way we did during the tenure of Koirala if Deubaji fails to abide by our agenda." Despite the support extended by his rivals in the party, it will not be easy for Deuba to muster support from the opposition. Deuba himself set a precedent of not cooperating with the majority group in the parliamentary party when he led Congress dissidents in the house. Deuba did not speak a word in defence of his predecessor when Koirala came under constant attack from the opposition. Instead, he lent silent support to the opposition campaign to oust Koirala. The rival Congress camp led by Sushil Koirala may be anxious to return the compliment.
"The change of leadership is just a change of characters in a drama. Now Sushilda will take the place of Sher Bahadurji and Sherbahadurji is in the position of Girija Prasad Koirala," said a Congress leader on condition of anonymity. "As Sherbahadurji taught Congress dissidents how to behave like members of the opposition, he will have a very tough time in disciplining his own supporters." The situation before Deuba indicates that the road ahead is bumpy. Despite Deuba’s call for a peaceful resolution of the Maoist insurgency, the rebels killed at least 15 policemen in the far-western district of Bajura, adjoining his home district, the day after King Gyanendra appointed him prime minister. This incident may indicate the kind of relationship Maoists are planning to develop with the new prime minister. Personally, Deuba is regarded as one of the most efficient and capable second-generation leaders of the Nepali Congress. Deuba’s 72-40 victory margin against Sushil Koirala showed his popularity in the party. The flip side of that result is that general secretary Koirala, too, has proved that he is not a weakling in the party. Koirala’s stepping down as prime minister may imply that things would be easier for a Deuba-led Nepali Congress government. However, as all the communist parties and rightist groups have expressed reservations over Deuba, few see the prospects of immediate relief to the country.
The resignation of Koirala under pressure from opposition parties has set a bad precedent for an office that has seen a gradual weakening of authority since the restoration of democracy in 1990. The Supreme Court's verdict of 1995, which set limits on the prime minister’s right dissolve the lower house of parliament, in effect turned the House of Representatives in to full-term legislature. By succumbing to the pressure tactics of the opposition, which obstructed the entire winter session of parliament and appeared set for a repeat performance during this session before Koirala decided to step down, the majority has lost its exclusive right to get the leader of its choice. The momentum towards the subversion of this core principle of parliamentary democracy has gathered pace with Koirala’s departure. At a time when the communist opposition parties and two rightist parties have formed an alliance in a perceived effort to distort the norms of parliamentary democracy, the country may need a miracle to preserve the existing system. "In a situation where the communist opposition is busy creating anarchy in the country, the very survival of parliamentary democracy has come into question," says a political analyst. Patience, tolerance and respect for the rule of law seem to have lost their relevance to practitioners of parliamentary democracy in Nepal. By keeping open the option to use the streets and house to destabilize the government, opposition leaders may be leading Nepalese politics straight into the eye of the storm. "Deuba must keep in the mind how we removed his predecessor, Koirala," said CPN-UML general secretary Nepal. As communist parties and rightist groups like the Rastriya Prajatantra Party and the Nepal Sadbhvana Party have embarked on an anti-parliamentary path, people and organizations that are against the current polity may find wider room for maneuver.
Voices are already being raised in favor of doing away with the existing political system. These voices are coming not only from the extreme right and extreme left of the political spectrum but also from the core of the vocal centrist intelligentsia. Some moderate politicians also have contributed to the questioning of the viability of the current system. However, no one is sure about the form and shape an alternative system should take. "If a parliamentary government fails, there are other democratic systems that can replace it. There is an alternative to every political system," Professor Lok Raj Baral, a long-time advocate of parliamentary democracy during the partyless panchayat system, said at a recent seminar. In such a situation, Deuba may find his new seat full of thorns. Girija Prasad Koirala, a seasoned politician, declared 16 months ago that he would complete his full term. But he ultimately had to step down under sustained pressure from the opposition. How long can Deuba expect to continue at a time when the form and content of the post have undergone a sea change since his last stint between 1995 and 1997? Heterogeneous interests in the party may demand accommodation and compromises. If these are not done, Deuba may not be able to escape the fate of Bhattarai and Koirala. In a parliamentary system of government, the minority parties acquiesce to the will of the majority. When Nepal's political system uses the reverse standard, Deuba may have to start all over again to find his way through the maze of politics. The Nepali Congress parliamentary party may have given its decision on June 22, but the opposition hasn’t delivered its stamp of approval yet. While this peculiar strand of Nepalese politics may amuse political scientists, it portends chronic instability for Nepal. When an acknowledged assertive leader like Girija Prasad Koirala could not survive in the midst of the fusion of forces on the left and right, lesser mortals can expect challenges from day one. Deuba may have to contend with some of the same problems Koirala faced during his stormy tenure. Within the Nepali Congress, Deuba may find many of his current colleagues turning against him pretty soon. The first thing to watch for is the fallout of the announcement of the new cabinet. Bringing the Maoist rebels to the negotiating table would be another tough task for Deuba. There are attendant risks. After all, it was Girija Prasad Koirala who drew leftists into the mainstream of Nepalese politics, but he found himself eventually edged out by them. The people will be asking themselves many questions in the days ahead. Who has the right to choose the prime minister — the ruling party or the opposition? In a situation where logic and rationality have little meaning, anything can be justified as constitutional. If the CPN-UML starts choosing the leader of the Nepali Congress, wouldn’t the Congress be entitled to naming the person it would like to see CPN-UML led by? Parliament is now in the hands of the CPN-UML. If the minority is determined to embark on a destructive path, no majority can expect to survive. This is not a lesson from Marxism-Leninism but a page right out of the anarchism that passes for oppositional politics in Nepal. Is there any guarantee that new prime minister or leader of the ruling party will complete his full term without pleasing the main opposition party? What type of parliamentary democracy is Nepal exercising? What is the thrust of this democracy? Simply put, who rules whom? Juxtapose this systemic chaos with the disarray the country is in. The budget and important bills have to be passed and ordinances have to be regularized. But the opposition is still on the offensive. It may be time to ask that big question: can the prime ministerial system function at all in Nepal? At the same time, Nepalis must realise that they cannot waste valuable time in experimenting with political systems. The CPN-UML is competing with nine small communist parties to hold the faithful. If the largest communist party continues positioning itself as a competitor with groups on the radical left, there will be further chaos. The communist parties have to learn to temper their desire for appeasing radicalism with their responsibility as participants of democratic system. The political freedom in the country today cannot set such limits, so they have to engage in some self-discipline. Otherwise, the emergence of Pol Pot-like system in Nepal may become a vivid prospect. From the hinterland to urban areas, the raw ideology of radical communists is forcing people to undergo needless suffering. If the statements of CPN-UML leaders Nepal and Oli and other left leaders are any indication, parliament may once again turn into a venue for nasty scenes in case the Nepali Congress acts against the wishes of the opposition. There is a dearth of logic in many statements CPN-UML leaders are making. Their words are breeding a sense of cynicism. Positive politics need not be an oxymoron. But if it doesn’t establish a firm foothold, morality, quality of education and law-and-order will plunge to new depths. The radical populism from the left and the dubious role of the extreme right will worsened the situation. As we have seen in the last 12 years, the Nepali Congress remains united because of certain common interests. Party leaders seem to have reached a consensus on not to break the organization on the basis of leadership crisis. To break away would mean eviction from power. This was sufficiently indicated by results of internal elections over the last six months. Roughly the same number of MPs that opposed Deuba during the last parliamentary party vote have now turned out to support him. Permanent group loyalty has never been a defining feature of politics. It’s just that the drift in Nepal has been more pronounced. But shifting alliances based on the mutuality of interests risks eroding the constitutional process. Interestingly, the last time Deuba was prime minister, the basic norms of parliamentary democracy were rendered irrelevant. Deuba was accused of showing a readiness to compromise on everything to continue in office. But those were the days of a hung parliament. Many expect Deuba to perform differently as the head of majority government. In the words of former prime minister Krishna Prasad Bhattarai, Deuba is one of the most capable leaders in the Nepali Congress. To prove Bhattarai right, Deuba must demonstrate that he has the ability to break out of the business-as-usual mould. ‘I Have A New Mandate And The Blessings Of Senior L eaders’ — SHER BAHADUR DEUBA Newly appointed Prime Minister SHER BAHADUR DEUBA has laid down broad contours of his agenda. A second-generation leader of the Nepali Congress, Deuba is leading the country as prime minister for the second time. After his victory in Congress parliamentary party election, he spoke to journalists. Excerpts:
How do you view your election as leader of the Nepali Congress parliamentary party? I am very happy that I could receive the blessings of the two senior party leaders, Girija Parasad Koirala and Krishna Prasad Bhattarai, as well those of members of parliament to win the elections. I was elected to the post following the resignation of our respected leader, Girija Prasad Koirala. Despite his majority in the parliamentary party, Koirala decided to resign to pave the way for a smooth political transition. This is one of his greatest contributions. Do you believe that all party leaders will support you? They have already declared that they will support me. Girijababu and Bhattaraiji will support me. My respected brother and competitor Sushil Koirala will also support me. We will need to work together to strengthen the party. Do you think Sushil Koirala will support you? Both of us are the members of the Nepali Congress party and we share a common ideology. There is no question to suspect that Sushilda will not support me. What will be your first priority? As you know, the Maoist insurgency is one the major problems of the country. My first priority will be to work out a common strategy to end the insurgency. How will you work out a strategy? To solve the Maoist problem, I will develop a common approach among the parties in parliament and outside. At a time when all major parties have agreed to the 14-point agenda presented by Girijababu, I will try to evolve a consensus among political parties to deal with the Maoist problem. I will initiate a dialogue with the major political parties for this purpose. How confident are you of solving the Maoist problem? I am hopeful that the problem will be settled peacefully. First, I would like to discuss the issue with the main opposition party in parliament. When everyone is talking about the need to resolve the Maoist problem, I am sure I will get much-needed support from them. I will start an initiative only after negotiations with all the parties. And I will start very soon. As someone who led party dissidents during the tenure of Girija Prasad Koirala, how do you plan to accommodate all your colleagues? I don't see any division in the party. You have already heard the voices [of support] of our party leaders, including Sushilda. You had expressed similar support after the election of Girijababu, but you did not support him. How do you believe you will receive your party’s full support? The situation has changed now and I have a new mandate and blessings of the leaders. I will abide by what my gurus Girijababu and Kishunji say. How difficult would it be to form the cabinet? It is not difficult if you see all the MPs as your friends. ‘After The Party Election, We Stand United Again’ — SUSHIL KOIRALA Nepali Congress General Secretary SUSHIL KOIRALA, who contested the parliamentary party election against Sher Bahadur Deuba, stresses the need to support the new government. Koirala spoke to SPOTLIGHT after the election:
How do you assess the election of the parliamentary party? We have successfully completed the democratic exercise in the party. I accept the verdict of the election. After the election, we are united again. Does this mean you will support Sher Bahadur Deuba? There is no question of opposing Sherbahadurji as prime minister. He has been elected in a democratic manner so it is my duty to support the Nepali Congress government. Do you believe Deuba's government will last its full term? As the Nepali Congress has a mandate to govern the country for another three years. I think our government will serve out its term. I will support Sher Bahadurji to complete his three-year tenure. How do you see the election result? I am very satisfied with the result, as such a large number of MPs voted for me. In a democracy, you have to accept the verdict of the majority. As some who has been campaigning very long for internal democracy in the party, it gave me pleasure to contest the election. Deubaji did not cooperate with Koirala’s government. Don’t you think that history could be repeated? As I told you, I will fully cooperate with Deubaji. There is no question of following the path a particular individual may have taken. It is clear that your party is divided. What needs to be done to bring everybody together? Frankly speaking, our party does not have any division. As a democratic party, there may be differences of opinion. After the election result, there are no more differences between us. ‘We Will Continue To Expose The Government’ — K.P. SHARMA OLI K.P. SHARMA OLI, deputy leader of the CPN-UML, was at the forefront of the opposition campaign to oust Girija Prasad Koirala. He spoke to SPOTLIGHT on various issues regarding the election of the new prime minister. Excerpts:
How do you see the election of Sher Bahadur Deuba as prime minister? The Congress parliamentary party has elected Deubaji. We had just demanded the resignation of Girija Prasad Koirala. I don't want to comment on Deubaji until his full cabinet is appointed. What do you expect from the new prime minister? We have already declared that he must include as ministers only those individuals who are not tainted. If Deubaji includes in his cabinet Congress MPs with a blemished record, we will take our next action. Do you think there are any individuals in the Congress that conform to your standards? I see very few such people in the Congress. Then what step you will take? We will continue to expose them and their performance. Resignation of Koirala is not our ultimate goal. We will oppose all Congress governments on the basis of their performance. What kind of action would you take? We may take any kind of action, including disrupting parliament and street protests. Do you mean you may launch an agitation against the Deuba government? If he tries to correct the mistakes committed by the Nepali Congress in the last 12 years, we will support him. We don't have any bias against Deubaji. If he performs his duty honestly, we won’t hesitate to support him. How do you justify your act of disrupting parliament? We blocked parliament only after Girija Prasad Koirala refused to abide by parliamentary procedures. Had he resigned after the letter sent by the Commission for Investigation of Abuse of Authority in the Lauda Air deal, the nation might have been save a lot of trouble. Do you think disrupting parliament and launching street agitation is part of democracy? In democracy, we can use every option, including the street and parliament. If the government refuses to follow the rules, why should we follow them? |
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