NATIONAL 6 -(Spotlight Weekly)]

Will the Medication Work?

The government is all set to address the problem of insurgency with a two-pronged approach. Whether it will succeed depends on the political commitment and maneuvering

By BHAGIRATH YOGI

After neglecting the remote northern hills and plights of people living there for the last several decades, Nepalese planners and politicians are finally focusing on their own backyard. That, too, after a violent conflict continued to undermine the rationale and authority of the state for full five years.

The government is finally implementing what it calls 'Integrated (Internal) ]Security and Development Program (ISDP)' in the areas most affected by the Maoist insurgency. The 15-page document drafted by the National Planning Commission (NPC) together with other government agencies aims to carry out development works in those areas under the security cover to be provided by the para-military and military personnel.

A village : a tale of suffering

"The government aims to push security and development together," said Deputy Prime Minister and Home Minister Ram Chandra Poudel. "The ISDP basically aims at bringing into the mainstream of development people living in the nooks and corners of the country. We need cooperation from all parties to provide immediate relief to the people."

The opposition parties are, however, skeptical. When a political sub-committee headed by Poudel invited opposition parties to hold discussions regarding the proposed program, left parties including the main opposition Unified Marxist-Leninist (UML) boycotted the meeting. They blamed that the program was only a ploy to mobilize army personnel to crush the Maoist rebellion.

The UML, on its part, termed the program as ambiguous, directionless and dubious. "The program is superficial and reactionary and will provide more opportunities for the (ruling) Nepali Congress and the government for corruption," the party observed. "There is no guarantee that (this autocratic) government would not use the army to destroy democracy and suppress the opposition."

The third largest party in the parliament, Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), too declared that the ISDP alone is not adequate to resolve the Maoist conflict. "There is a need of a greater national consensus among all the political parties and forces in the country to get out of the on-going political impasse," the party said.

As the government is flexing its muscles to garner political support to its ambitious program, the ISDP has identified key areas to focus on for the development of the districts that remain cut off from the national development endeavors.

Perhaps, the most important aspect of the proposed program would be the mobilization of army personnel as part of the program and coordination among the security agencies. After months' long uncertainty, King Birendra approved the ISDP submitted to him by the government early last month and then, the army started preparing its strategies to accomplish its job.

The army will work, jointly with other organizations or solitarily, as the need be, to disarm the rebels. The government will implement the program in 22 districts in the first phase by allocating Rs 150 million. Four high level sub-committees including political, publicity, development coordination and security, have been constituted to implement the program. Chief of the army staff, Prajwolla Shumsher JB Rana, will head the security sub-committee. The program has not excluded the possibility of starting negotiations and bringing the rebels within the sphere of the country's constitution.

Though the mobilization of army to contain internal insurgency has been finalized, its implications are still subject to debate and discussion. "When police fails to control an insurgency, then the army is mobilized to suppress the rebellion. But in such a case the hands of the army should not tied and a state of emergency needs to be declared in the region," said Satchit Shumsher JB Rana, former chief of army staff at the Royal Nepalese Army. "It would be much easier for the army to accomplish its job if the parliament and police support its actions."

According to Rana, in Nepal, the army is much more powerful than the (Maoist) rebels. So, if there is any assault against it, it will retaliate. In such a case, the number of casualties could be much higher. In such a case, if the armed conflict gets on protracted as professed by the rebels, the country could fall into the trap of a civil war, warn experts.

Others, however, think that the government and rebels would be able to find a common ground to end the current spate of violence amid growing domestic and international pressure for the peace talks. Of course, both the parties want to be in a position of strength as and when the talks are held.

The Maoist rebels mounted devastating attacks at isolated police posts in remote districts, including at Rukumkot and Naumule, early last month killing nearly 70 policemen. After attacks, Maoist leaders said their party had launched the attacks "to force the government to meet their demands for forming an interim government, and convening an all-party meeting to amend the country's constitution."

The government, on its part, managed to re-promulgate the ordinance to set up the Armed Police Force and Regional Administrators that mainly aim at containing the Maoist insurgency. The government could not pass these ordinance in the 19th session due to prolonged boycott of the parliamentary proceedings by the opposition. Similarly, after some hitches Premier Koirala managed to convince His Majesty in mobilizing the army as part of the ISDP.

Officials say they have almost completed the preparation of the ISDP and are going to implement it immediately. "We will be launching development of infrastructure programs such as roads, electrification, micro-hydro, bridges etc. and implement agricultural packages as per the local needs," Vice-Chairman of NPC Prithvi Raj Ligal, who chairs the Integrated Development Program Management and Coordination sub-committee told SPOTLIGHT Tuesday. "We will also launch drinking water and irrigation projects by mobilizing local participation."

According to Ligal, the ISDP also includes skill development programs to young men and women in these districts and supporting them for self-employment. Similarly, the government would also impart them some skills that could become handy for those interested in seeking overseas employment. "The main job of the government, as part of the ISDP, is to ensure security, assign necessary manpower and make the service delivery effective," said Ligal.

Human rights activist, however, point toward possibility of escalation of violence as the government deploys security personnel in the area that are virtually under the control of the rebels. " If the government mobilizes the army, under whatever banner, it will certainly escalate the confrontation. The Maoists too would be compelled to upgrade their weaponry and a civil war like situation could not be avoided," said Padma Ratna Tuladhar, a noted rights activist, who has been trying to broker peace between the government and rebels.

Tuladhar insists that the government should not mobilize the security force until and unless there is a possibility of a peaceful resolution (of the conflict). "In the areas where there is no presence of the government, the mobilization of military and para-military forces will certainly invite encounter and the number of casualties could also go up," said Tuladhar.

Officials, however, claim that they are aware about such a situation. "The development works would start from limited areas and will not cover the entire district, to begin with," said Ligal, the NPC vice chairman. "The programs would be launched in the areas that are relatively safe from security point of view."

The rebels, on their part, have not made their response to the government's ambitious program as yet. They have, however, tried to boost the morale of their cadres saying that they can even take on the army, if the need be. "The (proposition of the) army mobilization is a proof that the 'people's war' has reached new heights. It will also end the political space for the parliament in this country," said Prachanda, in an interview.

Whatever be the rhetoric, try to take on the army in a conventional battle would be a suicidal move for the rebels, say strategic analysts. They could, however, try to engage the army in a guerilla battle and at the same time, enhance pressure against the government to pull back its security forces. Given the political stalemate and the stiff opposition that the Koirala government faces at the moment their job may be much easier than what they have said.

The determined Prime Minister, enthused with strong support from the international community, in a nationwide broadcast on April 16 asked the rebels to give up arms and join the political mainstream. But there are no indications so far that the rebels would oblige their enemy number one. The road to peace in the Nepali hills is full of thorns. And, the implementation of the ISDP is even more difficult in the success or failure of which hangs the future of the Koirala government.