NATIONAL 3 -(Spotlight Weekly)

Deadlock in the Making

Though the Maoists agree to 'drop' their demand for a republic, the government is unlikely to accept their call for a constituent assembly

By BHAGIRATH YOGI

After nearly ten weeks, the government and Maoist negotiators were back at the posh Godavari Village Resort in the capital valley on the eve of the Tihar festival. But they hadnít come any closer to resolving the six-year-old insurgency.

Though the three-member Maoist negotiation team led by Krishna Bahadur Mahara notified the government that the party had decided to drop its demand for making Nepal a republic, it could not convince the government negotiators about the need for forming an interim government and holding elections to a constituent assembly ó the two major Maoist demands.

PM Deuba : Hope against hope

Emerging from the five-hour talks on Nov. 12, Mahara told reporters that his party could not bow further. "The ball is now in the governmentís court," he said. Chief government negotiator Chiranjivi Wagle insisted that as the Maoists had withdrawn their demand for a republic, their other demands could be fulfilled within the ambit of the current constitution.

Though both sides have agreed to sit for a fourth round of talks by the end of November, there is little they could agree on, analysts say. As the government and Maoist head toward a virtual deadlock, pressure is mounting on the government to deal with the rebels in a tough way. "The Nepali Congress can in no way accept the demand for a constituent assembly. The Maoists must stop their terrorist activities now or face the consequences," warned Nepali Congress President and former prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala. He also criticized Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deubaís government for failing to put pressure on the rebels.

The main opposition leader, Madhav Kumar Nepal, went one step ahead. Talking to reporters in the capital Monday, the UML general secretary said, "If the government fails to deliver and still holds on to power, we will exert public pressure to unseat Mr. Deuba." The UML had disrupted the entire 19th session of parliament this year demanding the resignation of then-prime minister Koirala. Nepal was particularly furious about the governmentís inability to protect his party cadres from alleged Maoist atrocities.

Prime Minister Deuba said he was trying his best to find a peaceful solution to the six-year-old insurgency. "I will see to it that the upcoming fourth round of talks becomes decisive," Deuba told reporters in Banepa Monday. "There has been a significant improvement in the law-and-order situation in the country over the last four months."

But such an ëimprovementí had not come without a price. Though the rebels have stopped ëmilitary assaultsí on remote, isolated police posts, they have continued their spree of extortion, abduction and murder of opposition party activists. The government had to withdraw the Public Security Regulation and

begin the process of releasing nearly 70 rebels to draw the Maoists for the third round of talks.

As the negotiations drag on, the people have begun feeling disenchanted. The first round of talks on August 30 was a mere formality. In the second round, at the Tiger Tops Resort in the mid-western district of Bardiya in the middle of September, the Maoists formally put their agenda to which the government made its initial response. The third round of talks, too, failed to give any way out of the imbroglio.

The Maoists may be trying to be flexible with the government but canít abandon their agenda under pressure from their cadres. In an interview with the pro-Maoist Jana Disha daily Monday, chairman of the Maoist party Comrade Prachanda said his organization had decided to focus on elections to the constituent assembly "to award the right to the sovereign people to decide on the issue of republic.

"Now we have to see if the government opposes (our proposal for the elections of) the constituent assembly under pressure from the anti-national and fascist forces or moves ahead by taking the people into confidence," he said.

Analysts say the mere formality of talks and lack of continuity on issues raised earlier are likely to undermine the entire exercise. "The recent talks have generated nothing but chaos," Dr. Krishna Hachhethu, a political scientist, told Kantipur daily. "It seems the local Maoist commanders are against the talks and it is unlikely the Maoist leadership will join the mainstream if the present constitution is amended."

Ruling party leaders, however, believe the Maoists will still try to convince their cadres and join the mainstream. With international opinion against all forms of terrorism growing and major Nepalese political parties rejecting their agenda, the Maoists seem to be running out of options. "The demand for a republic was never a genuine one for the Maoists. It only served as a cover," said Narahari Acharya, a Nepali Congress ideologue and a member of the governmentís negotiating team. "I am not sure whether they

will continue their demand for constituent assembly. All they want is to reach power (through an interim government)."

A little known outfit, the CPN (Maoist) has emerged as a major political force by employing sheer violence by launching the so-called ëpeopleís war.í The death of nearly 2,000 people over the last six years might pave a way for the insurgent group to share power, but the costs of the needless violence may be prove to be too heavy for the country.