NATIONAL 9 (Spotlight Weelky)]

The Home Front

Nepal needs to properly assess the emerging scenarios in Afghanistan,experts say

By AKSHAY SHARMA

As Kabul fell into the hands of the Northern Alliance with the help of massive American firepower, most nations began setting their eyes on the new government to be installed in Afghanistan. This week, the Northern Alliance endorsed international calls for a broad-based government.

"The Taliban was a creation of Pakistan and the new government would have broader recognition from the international community if it could open Afghanistan to the rest of the world," said Professor Shree Dhar Khatri of the Institute of Foreign Affairs.

However, the old dilemma haunts the region: Will Afghanistan be stable? Will the international community be able to encourage the emergence of a broad-based government in Kabul that would be acceptable to all of its neighbors?

Some analysts fear a repetition of the bloody conflict Afghanistan has been engulfed in the past. Others worry the country might eventually split along ethnic lines. "Much will depend on how broad-based the new government in Kabul would be," Professor Khatri added.

With South Asia having become the main theater of the US-led war on terrorism, the region can expect both positive and negative fall-outs, an expert says. The neighborhood has been described as the "most dangerous" place on the globe. According to a 1998 Pentagon report, until 2030 there will be no country to challenge the United States in military and economic might. This has left regional powers like India and China in a quandary. After all, history has shown that wherever US troops have been stationed, they have never left, except in Vietnam.

The change of government in Kabul represents a positive signal for India, as Al Qaeda, the organization Washington blames for the September 11 attacks, is also on the wanted list of Indian security agencies. In recent days, images of Afghan civilians listening to Indian film songs have been broadcast around the world. Bollywood has a very big market in Afghanistan, which India could use to cement ties.

Although Pakistan is alarmed by the prospect of having a less friendly government on a sensitive flank, there are positive signs for Islamabad, too, since it has proved itself indispensable to the West. The United States has always been known to aid Pakistan and many in Islamabad see a clear opportunity to settle the long-running Kashmir conflict through US involvement. "Pakistan always wanted third-party involvement in the dispute and maybe this is the right time," an expert says.

"On the other hand, the Indians might have problems sharing their influence in the region if there is a long-term presence of US troops," the expert adds. "But Pakistan will definitely play a pivotal role in the region with the United States close by its side."

Nepal will have to respond carefully to the unfolding scenarios. "We in Nepal need to keep our eyes and ears peeled with proper assessment to the scenarios in Afghanistan in the future," says Nischal Nath Pandey, deputy executive director of the Institute of Foreign Affairs.

Kathmandu could find itself in the middle of conciliation efforts between New Delhi and Islamabad early next year. The Indian and Pakistani leaders are to hold talks in Kathmandu on the sidelines of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation summit in January.

However, non-state parties could exert a greater influence on regional stability. "South Asia has been long one of the transit routes of international arms smuggling. The war in Afghanistan and the Burmese

insurgency were the major causes of transforming South Asia into an important transit route," writes Neil Hussain in "Problems of Proliferation in Small Arms".

Adds Rohan Gunaratna in "Sources of Arms to the LTTE": "Dual-use technology with military applications are sold in the open market, but in the hands of a terrorist, a guerrilla, their application can enhance militant performance." He says terrorists have access to modern weapons and law-enforcement agencies working with the global coalition against terrorism need to control small-arms proliferation in South Asia.

That challenge is bound to grow, with the US Central Intelligence Agency mounting a hidden war in Afghanistan with secret paramilitary units on the ground and Predator surveillance drones in the sky, which provided key intelligence for concentrated air strikes on Al Qaeda leaders.

The CIA units, whose existence has not been previously disclosed, are operating in what amounts to a central combat role in Americaís war in Afghanistan. One of these units was the first US force to enter the country in the current terrorism war, paving the way for US Special Operations Forces. The units also have been providing the Northern Alliance with intelligence on opposing Taliban and Al Qaeda troop concentrations.

The units are part of a highly secret CIA capability, the Special Activities Division, which consists of teams of about half a dozen men who do not wear military uniforms. The division has about 150 fighters, pilots and specialists, and is made up mostly of hardened veterans who have retired from the US military. The division's arsenal includes helicopters, airplanes and the unmanned aerial Predator drones equipped with high-resolution cameras and Hellfire antitank missiles.

Last week, a CIA-run Predator provided intelligence resulting in three days of strikes that killed key Al Qaeda leaders. But it was not clear what role CIA information played in the successful attack on Mohammed Atef, the senior operations lieutenant to Osama bin Laden whose death the Taliban confirmed last week.

The role of the CIA's paramilitary units has been particularly important in Afghanistan because much of the war has turned on intelligence and targeting information. The CIA warriors also bring an experienced knowledge of the territory and Northern Alliance factions.

The CIA's Special Activities Division has inserted into Afghanistan specialized CIA case officers from the agency's Near East Division who know the local languages and had previous covert relationships with the Northern Alliance going back years.

On September 9, two days before the attacks on the United States, two Arab suicide bombers posing as television journalists assassinated Ahmed Shah Massoud, the Northern Alliance leader who had established a fierce reputation during the anti-Soviet resistance. The killing had all the hallmarks of a bin Laden operation.

Many felt that Massoudís death would spell the end of the Northern Alliance, but the group seems more determined than ever, especially as the prospect of American, British and now Russian military support grows daily stronger.

Assuming that the Taliban are routed, will the alliance be able to rule Afghanistan or will it splinter? Enter King Zahir Shah, whose long exile in Rome may soon end. Countless delegations, including one from the Northern Alliance, have called on him recently to discuss his return as an interim head of state.

At age 86, the king is still active and undoubtedly has a following. In a poll in the Afghan refugee camps in Peshawar in the 1980s, 70 per cent voted for his return. Today, his supporters want a loya jirga (the grand council of Afghan leaders), or general assembly, to vote on the country's future. The alternative is a Western-style election supervised by the United Nations, which would undoubtedly be fraught with difficulties.

In step with the military offensive, the allies will need to engage in a massive airdrop of food and medical supplies to the starving people of Afghanistan, who are already suffering famine on a Biblical scale. Immediate humanitarian aid would have to be followed by an Asian equivalent of the Marshall Plan for investment and reconstruction, and the wiping out of opium and heroin production.

"Having restored some sort of order in Afghanistan, the West would then need to address the most critical task of all ó establishing a just peace in the Middle East. Without that, any success in Afghanistan will be meaningless," says Sandy Gall, a specialist on Afghan and Middle Eastern affairs.

The synchronization of diplomacy, criminal law, financial controls, military force, intelligence is the best arrangement for the broader war on terrorism America is fighting. As the attacks of September 11 proved, you do not need anything sophisticated for a massive terrorist attack.

All this suggests that Nepal must brace itself for the unfolding challenges. "After the Maoists decided to end the four-month cease-fire with massive coordinated armed attacks, we must be better prepared for the repercussions from the events taking place so close to Nepal," says an expert. As the war on terrorism is a new kind of war, its repercussions could be felt in ways that can scarcely be comprehended today.n