NATIONAL 1 (Spotlight Weekly)]

In Limbo

Both sides may meet for the third time, only to break the talks formally

By A CORRESPONDENT

When government and Maoist negotiators flew into Kathmandu after the second round of talks last month, they had their own stories to tell reporters. During the Sep. 13-15 talks at the posh Tiger Tops resort in the mid-western district of Bardiya, the three-member Maoist team led by former MP Krishna Bahadur Mahara handed over their core demands to the government: institutionalization of the republic, formation of an interim government and drafting a new constitution. In their initial response, the five-member official team led by senior Minister Chiranjivi Wagle told the Maoists that a government elected under the present constitution could not meet such demands as making Nepal a republic.

Wagle : Keeping fingers crossed

Things seem to be moving very fast since then. Though both sides agreed to continue negotiations, they did not fix a timeframe as they had done during the first round of talks on August 30 at the Godavari Resort. Even after three weeks of the second round, nobody knows when the third round will take place.

"As per the understanding, Prime Minister (Sher Bahadur) Deuba himself is to fix the date and venue for the third round of talks. But so far we haven't heard anything from him," Padma Ratna Tuladhar, one of the two facilitators in the talks told SPOTLIGHT Tuesday. "Civil society should pressure both sides to continue the talks."

There have been some positive developments in between. In response to the ëhard talk' by Home Minister Khum Bahadur Khadka that the government could not release all the Maoist activists unilaterally, Maoist leader Comrade Prachanda announced that his party would release all the policemen and private citizens under its custody. The rebels said they had released 49 policemen by last week. Officials say there are at least two dozen policemen and nearly 100 private citizens still under the Maoists' custody.

In a statement issued Monday after his party's politburo meeting, Comrade Prachanda urged the government to prepare a congenial atmosphere for the talks. By ëcongenial atmosphere', the Maoists mean unconditional release of all their activists and leaders and withdrawal of the Public Security Regulations, among other things. Sources said the Home Ministry was working to amend certain clauses in the regulations that give sweeping authority to local administration to keep people under preventive detention. Officials said they were also screening the cases of Maoists under custody.

More than internal dynamics, the changed international environment is believed to have put the Maoists on the defensive. Within a fortnight of the terrorist attacks on the US, Indian Foreign and Defense Minister Jaswant Singh declared Nepalese Maoists as terrorists. In a swift move, police in Indian state of West Bengal started searching Maoist hideouts in Siliguri and other sensitive regions. With the Indian government's decision to deploy nearly 10,000 troops along the border "to control criminal and cross-border terrorist activities" Maoists may no longer enjoy easy access to arms and ammunitions from across the border. Moreover, with the Nepalese government expressing all-out support to the US-led coalition in its war on terrorism, the Maoists could expect little international support.

Fresh developments indicated that the Maoist leadership was losing control over its rank and file. Reports spoke of strong dissension within the party on continuing talks. "Both the government and the Maoists are preparing for an intense conflict in the disguise of talks," alleged Yuba Raj Gyawali, leader of the main opposition UML in the National Assembly.

Critics, too, suspect that both the government and rebels want to prolong the ëcease fire' for their own reasons. While the government seems to be employing the strategy of `wearing out' the rebels by prolonging the talks, the rebels are said to be training and equipping their cadres for a final showdown.

Analysts say the government must be as accommodative as possible to bring the insurgents, who have failed to rally the people, into the political mainstream. "An interim government could be formed from within this constitution (so as to accommodate the Maoists)," said chief government negotiator Wagle in Biratnagar. Whether the Deuba government will be able to endorse such a move from the ruling party led by G.P. Koirala remains to be seen.

The Maoist leadership, too, will have to show flexibility in its political demands. By derailing the peace process, they will not only be sidelined from the public, they will also have to face the Royal Nepalese Army after being branded as terrorists. A tough choice, indeed.