NATIONAL 2 (Spotlight Weekly)]

New Equation

Complementary regionalism and bilateralism could herald a new era of cooperation in South Asia

By AKSHAY SHARMA

Despite striking socio-cultural similarities and mutual developmental needs, the countries of the South Asian region have so far failed to emerge as a cohesive bloc. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) has been able to achieve only moderate success, much below its potential, as member states have been suspended between desiring increased regional cooperation and the pursuit of perennial bilateral disputes. However, recent developments suggest that a new equation of "complementary regionalism and bilateralism" is emerging, which could herald a new era of cooperation in the region.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs : Maintaining the balance

South Asia, which represents one fifth of the world's population, has failed to eradicate widespread poverty, hunger, disease, and illiteracy. In the mid-1980s, it was realized that national efforts by individual governments needed to be supplemented by bilateral and regional cooperation to deal with the issues of overall development. Many of the interlinked socio-economic problems of the region further necessitated long-term collective strategy and planning at the regional level.

It was against this background that SAARC was launched in 1985 to accelerate economic growth and the strengthening of collective self-reliance. However, from the very beginning, doubts were cast over the smooth functioning of SAARC since both New Delhi and Islamabad — its two largest members — had apprehensions about the newly formed group. India feared that SAARC would compromise its national sovereignty and potentially could develop into an anti-Indian forum. Pakistan, on the other hand, suspected that India would use SAARC to develop a bloc under its leadership.

An analyst says that the problem SAARC faces is overcoming these fears and ensuring a smooth functioning of the organization. The SAARC charter strictly prohibited bilateral and contentious issues within its ambit. However, 16 years after its inception, SAARC is still in a state of confusion, and it has failed to evolve into an effective regional body.

Several factors have contributed to this state of affairs. First, South Asia is still far from becoming a ëregion' due to the inadequate degree of harmony of interests among the member states. Economic, geographic, and military asymmetry between India and its neighbors have had a negative effect.

Second, almost perpetual intrastate conflicts and crises have left individual states with little time or resources to work towards regional cooperation. Third, the lack of a common external security threat has also lowered the necessity of creating a strong regional bloc. Fourth, provisions that prevented the organization from formally considering political issues and bilateral problems have further restricted SAARC's regional role.

The analyst adds that, most importantly, notwithstanding the existence of institutional mechanisms, bitter bilateral disputes among the member states have decisively limited SAARC's effectiveness in the subcontinent. In the past two decades, political, religious, and ethnic tensions have been high in the region. Almost every South Asian country is perpetually plagued by internal conflicts and crises based on narrow considerations of caste, religion, ethnicity, language, community, and the like.

SAARC Secretary General Rodrigo : Faces difficulties

Frequent border skirmishes between India and Bangladesh, the ongoing debate between Bhutan and Nepal over the refugee issue, the irritants in relations between India and Nepal over the open border, and other sporadic events have constrained the growth of regional cooperation in the region. However, it is the unremitting hostility between India and Pakistan, which has greatly undermined the growth of SAARC. To India's discomfort, Pakistan has from time to time attempted to raise the Kashmir issue in the SAARC forums on one or other pretext.

Growing Islamic insurgency in Kashmir since the late 1980s and the tit-for-tat nuclear tests in May 1998 further poisoned the political and strategic environment in the subcontinent, adversely affecting the spirit of regional cooperation. The 11th summit has not been able to take place because New Delhi refused to recognize the military takeover in Pakistan in October 1999.

Progress on the proposed free-trade area within SAARC became futile owing to the differences between India and Pakistan. Indeed, bilateral Indo-Pakistani conflicts are the major obstacle to the success of SAARC to the extent that the socio-economic development of this poor region of more than 1.5 billion people significantly rests on the ups and downs of these nuclear rivals' bilateral ties. The other five countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka) and SAARC's secretariat in Kathmandu have become helpless spectators.

But as the experts put the perception of SAARC, for all this, of late a broad understanding of the need to strengthen regional cooperation has begun to emerge, specifically in the economic field, though the region's leaders have been slow to pursue it.

Several developments are noteworthy. First, India and some of its neighbors are becoming fearful of being left out as the world organizes itself into regional groupings. Second, against the background of the socio-economic benefits reaped by ASEAN states, voices are rising in the South Asian region that SAARC should not let opportunities for economic cooperation slip by. Third, in the present era of globalization, the proposed South Asian Preferential-Trade Area (SAPTA) and South Asia Free-Trade Area (SAFTA) could enhance regional economic interests. Fourth, there is an increasing concern in the smaller states that the region is paying a big price for Indo-Pakistani bilateral differences. Sri Lanka and Nepal have initiated various diplomatic moves to revive the SAARC summit. Fifth, as people within the region continue to interact at different levels, there is a growing pressure on the governments to shed their differences and to chart out strategies to fight against common enemies such as illiteracy, poverty, and unemployment. The emergence of the Citizen's Commission for South Asia (CCSA) should be seen in this context.

Sixth, in the late 1990s, as India began to attach greater importance to the economic dimension in its regional diplomacy, its attitude towards the potential of SAARC has changed significantly. It is in this context that in recent years Delhi has actively promoted the concept of a SAPTA to be followed by SAFTA.

Based on their experience in the past, however, the South Asian nations continue to feel vulnerable to Indian political, military, and economic pressures. There is a general fear that India's comparative advantage could damage their domestic industries if unrestricted trade is allowed. Pakistan is also reluctant to boost trade with India without concurrent progress over Kashmir.

To allay small nations' fears, the Indian leadership has shown willingness to pursue a foreign policy focused on developing cordial relations with regional countries — the so-called ëGujral doctrine'. Successful water-sharing negotiations with Bangladesh and Nepal have conveyed a positive message that India is prepared to offer concessions without demanding reciprocity.

In return, New Delhi can exploit its powerful position vis-vis its neighbors to develop a regional base for its own ambitions to play a major role on the global stage. If India is seen not as a regional bully, but as a friendly neighbor with a strong base of support among the smaller South Asian countries, it could improve its chances of winning a permanent seat on an expanded UN Security Council. "It is important to note that, barring Pakistan, there is not a major dispute between India and its other five neighbors although 'perceptive differences' do exist. Therefore, amid the Indian willingness to develop confidence among its small neighbors, a consensus is slowly but gradually emerging among the member states that the SAARC process is crucial as well as inevitable in promoting regional peace, stability, and amity, and in accelerating socio-economic cooperation," an expert says.

SAARC member states are increasingly convinced that they will all gain politically, economically, and strategically if SAARC makes good progress. The example of other political and economic regional groups clearly indicates that a regional organization could be an attractive proposition for all the member states. Notably, in the past few months, New Delhi's desire to take the SAARC process forward has also been positively matched by Pakistan, besides being strongly supported by other members. Islamabad did not raise the Kashmir issue at the recent meeting of foreign secretaries in Colombo. Sources have been informed that this approach might continue in the near future.

In last month's meeting in Delhi, the SAARC commerce ministers not only agreed to take a common position in the Doha World Trade Organization ministerial meeting in November but also reflected the new mood for regional cooperation.

Although the July Agra summit between Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf failed to make any breakthrough on the Kashmir dispute, it has certainly paved the way for the resumption of the SAARC summit. Sources reveal that preparations for the Kathmandu summit are already under way.

It is important that Pakistan should not be isolated. An isolated Pakistan is a danger not only to India but also to the stability of the entire region. The political upheavals in Pakistan are a fait accompli. There is no doubt that the nature of bilateral relations will continue to have a great impact on the approach of participating member states in the organization. However, by showing prudence, SAARC could be turned into a venue where South Asian leaders could discuss controversial bilateral issues on the margins of formal sessions.

Such an understanding would greatly boost cooperation in the areas of socio-economic development of the region. A big opportunity lies ahead for the South Asian leaders, and it is to be hoped that they will show the statesmanship and far-sightedness to capitalize on it.