NATIONAL 2 (Spotlight Weekly)]

The Afghan Syndrome

Realities of history and geography provide enough reason for Nepal to remain vigilant as the US-led war on terrorism rages

By AKSHAY SHARMA

In the aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks on the United States and Washingtonís pledge to pulverize terror groups and their sponsors with the full force of its military, some Nepalese analysts are predicting significant impacts on this country.

Their conclusions are rooted in geography as well as history. Afghanistan and Nepal are in the same neighborhood and have given similar responses to expansionist forces in different periods in the past. Moreover, Nepal and Afghanistan are both land-locked nations lying in the same mountain chain. However, Afghanistan has seen more political upheavals than Nepal has.

Nepalis understand well how international and regional events go on to shape their destiny. "When former Pakistani prime minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto was hanged in 1979, there were political upheavals in Nepal that nearly restored multiparty system," says a political scientist. The fact that multiparty democracy had to wait for another decade, until the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe, to re-enter the country is not lost on Nepalis, either.

As the US-led coalition has embarked on a new kind of war, Nepal and its neighbors have either offered to provide or are already providing various forms of support to the campaign. After the World Trade Center twin towers in New York City collapsed, a social organization, Goreto, recorded that the people of Kathmandu were more concerned by that event than they were about the Rukumkot massacre mounted by the Maoists a few months ago.

Nepalís Gurkhas warriors, known internationally for their bravery and fighting skills, have associated the country in one way or the other with most modern wars. Coming from several ethnic backgrounds within Nepal and having a military tradition dating from the 16th century, the Gurkhasí fame spread throughout the world after they fought the British army in the Anglo-Nepalese War (1814-1816).

Although the British defeated Nepal, the victors were so impressed by the Gurkha fighters that they enticed them to enter the British (and, subsequently, Indian) army. The Gurkhas, known for their dextrous use of the kukris, have fought in nearly all of the world's major wars and have earned Britain's highest service awards, including the Victoria Cross.

The increasing use of technology in warfare, however, is decreasing the need for fighters such as the Gurkhas. Both Britain and India have reduced their recruitment of Gurkha soldiers in the 1990s. Nevertheless, early reports from London said the first British ground troops to be deployed in Afghanistan were likely to be Gurkhas.

The nature of terrorist activities and the response required have changed the terms of warfare. Groups and individuals linked to Saudi-born millionaire Osama bin Laden, the prime suspect in September 11 attacks, have been traced to over 50 countries. The newsmagazine India Today carried a cover story on the "Osama bin Laden of India". The man on the cover was the main person the hijackers of an Indian Airlines flight from Tribhuvan International Airport in December 1999 wanted released from a Kashmir prison. Indian Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh accompanied Maulana Masood Azhar to the Afghan city of Kandahar to negotiate the return of the passengers.

Azhar formed the shadowy Jaish-e-Mohammad group in March 2000, which initially took responsibility for a suicide attack on the Jammu and Kashmir state legislature, killing at least 38 people. Although the group later denied involvement, Indian officials remain convinced that Azhar, believed to have close links with bin Laden, was behind the attack.

Newspapers around the world are focusing on religious parties and charities that are directly or indirectly helping Al Qaedaís terrorist activities. The primary man behind bin Laden is Mullah Mohammed Omar, an Islamic cleric who leads Afghanistanís Taliban government, according to a strict version of Islam.

Afghanistanís neighbor to the west, Iran, was where the first modern Islamic Revolution was successful. A Shia cleric, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, exiled in France, led a popular uprising that ousted Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi in 1979. "[O]n January 6, 1979, the symbol of Iranís stability and symbol, the Shah, was forced to leave the country under the pressure of one of the most extraordinary revolution of the Third World," Golam R. Alfatkani remembers in his book "The Iranian Revolution".

The Iranian monarchy had collapsed when both the Shah and his system appeared quite strong. "The debate over the role played by the West in the fall of the Iranian monarchy is still zealously pursued by a respectable number of knowledgeable Iranian. The Shah himself passed away apparently convinced of the Westís culpability in the overthrow of his regime," Golam writes. "The available evidence, however, does not corroborate the role attributed to the West, even though is no doubt that some Western politicians and functionaries were anxious to see the Shah fall."

The extraordinary instrument of the revolution was religion. Ayatollah Khomeiniís popularity showed the undetected strength of the Shia religious establishment. As Golam writes, "In the year following 1978, religion succeeded when the crucial segment of the society had very little affinity towards religion."

A similar affinity to tradition led the Afghan mujahideen to force Soviet troops, who launched an invasion in 1979, out of the country a decade later. The bloodletting among various Islamic warriors that followed the Soviet pullout paved the way for the Talibanís rise to power.

Even in the midst of this modern war on terrorism, tradition has again asserted itself in Afghanistan, albeit in a different way. The former king, Mohammed Zahir Shah, overthrown in 1973 and living in exile ever since, is being encouraged by the West and many Afghans to lead the transition to a broad-based government in Kabul after the fall of the Taliban.

As the US military continues its military strikes on Afghanistan, Al Qaeda has threatened further attacks on the United States and other countries. The question now isn't if they will strike again, but where and how they will do it.

The repercussions on Pakistan could be significant. President General Pervez Musharraf is under intense US pressure to assist in the hunt for the perpetrators of the 11 September terrorist attacks. The problem for Gen. Musharraf is the legacy of the Islamization policies pursued in the late 70s and early 80s by a previous military strongman: General Zia ul-Haq. One consequence of the Zia years has been the proliferation of Islamic seminaries in which around 600,000 boys are now studying. On leaving these seminaries, many graduates go to Afghanistan to be imbued in the rhetoric of holy war.

Another legacy of the Zia years has been the miniaturization of religious organizations. During the Zia years, a number of Pakistani religious parties began military training programmes, often linked with Afghan or Kashmiri groups. These included the mainstream Jamaat-e-Islami led by Qazi Hussein Ahmad and the Jamiat-e-Ulema Islami led by Fazlur Rahman.

Extremist splinter groups such as the Sipah-e-Sahaba, the Lashkar-e-Tayba, the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, and the Harakat-ul-Mujahideen have also emerged, often with moral and financial support from oil-rich Arab states.

The situation is further complicated by Pakistanís sectarian split between the dominant Sunnis and the 10 percent to 15 percent of the population that follow the Shia brand of Islam. The Pakistani Shias are supported by Iran that, in turn, is opposed to the Taliban, bin Ladenís protector.

Some 20 million of Pakistanís 140 million people are ethnic Pathans, the group from which the Taliban primarily draws its support. If ever a political leader was caught between a rock and a hard place, it is Gen. Musharraf.

Experts here predict that Nepal would also be affected by a prolonged war on terrorism in South Asia. There have been demonstrations and rallies in Kathmandu to protest against the bombings in Afghanistan. However, the scale of the impact on Nepal would go beyond anything domestically driven.

"The United States has cautioned India not to try to take advantage of this situation," says a security analyst. "But there will certainly be a spillover, as Kashmir is so close to Nepal. Nepal could also be targeted if the current campaign is broadened to identify and locate Kashmiri forces, which New Delhi believes are also in Nepal. Furthermore, the government could find itself fighting extremist forces within the country that have largely remained dormant," the analyst adds. This reasoning may seem to be in the realm of speculation now. In view of the speed and form in which events are unfolding in the region, however, Nepal cannot afford to lower its guard.